January 9, 2020

Polls show a logjam at the top of the 2020 Democratic field in Iowa and New Hampshire

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/latest-2020-democratic-presidential-primary-polls-show-biden-sanders-ahead.html

January 9, 2020

How Elizabeth Warren Is Being Squeezed by 2 Democratic Factions

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-2020.html

This article is a good read and fair I think...why I posted it is her position supporting Trump's trade deal which is hated by unions and manufacturing...she can not win MI, WI or PA....not now. Those leaving moving away from Warren appear to be moving to Buttigieg and/or Biden. She has progressive supporters and Hillary supporters while some are both-a fair number of Hillary supporters will not support Sanders which is why they move to Biden or Buttigieg IMO. I know the issue with the Times and reading it so I will post as many excerpts as I can. Those of you with a subscription can help with this. Basically this article says Warren is being squeezed and facing attacks from the left and from the center which I think is true...she apparently plans to give her surrogates permission to attempt to bolster her campaign by attacking her rivals...the article did not use the word attack but that is what was hinted at. We will see. They are about to descend upon Iowa which is make or break for Warren. Castro began this by making the case for why she was better than her rivals at one of the last rallies.

"...The response, given at a rally in Davenport on Sunday, was a rare foray into horse-race politics from a candidate who has dismissed the importance of polls, rarely reads news coverage about herself and detests Beltway punditry. But it was part of a quiet recognition among her advisers and surrogates that, less than one month before the Iowa caucuses, Ms. Warren is being damaged by criticism and pressure from both moderates and liberals within the Democratic Party, whose doubts about her have fueled concerns about her ability to win..."


"...Last week, Ms. Warren surprised some of her own supporters by embracing the updated trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada, which was negotiated by Mr. Trump to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, saying it created some market stability for farmers..."

"...Ms. Warren’s campaign has avoided setting expectations for its Iowa finish. But Sean McElwee, whose think tank, Data for Progress, has worked closely with Ms. Warren’s campaign, said he thought she probably needed a first- or second-place finish in Iowa to unlock her numbers elsewhere — and at a minimum, she must beat Mr. Sanders..."

"...The Sunrise Movement, the nationwide group of young climate activists, said Ms. Warren’s support for the agreement “undermines her commitments to the Green New Deal.” Prominent online supporters of Ms. Warren, including leaders at the Working Families Party, the progressive group that endorsed her in September, boosted tweets about being “heartbroken” by Ms. Warren’s decision..."

January 3, 2020

Biden is leading in Iowa and tied in New Hampshire and crushing the others in South Carolina.They

may take no delegates from south Carolina. ... updated 538 polling algorithms show Biden is leading in Iowa, tied or leading in New Hampshire, and crushing everyone in South Carolina. Not good news for Sanders, Warren or Buttigieg who need Iowa and New Hampshire unlike Biden. On a dark day thanks to criminal warmongering impeached TRump, this is welcome news.

A big thanks to beastie boy...thanks to his post I looked at 538's updated averages. Take a look.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=405736

Iowa



Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/



New Hampshire




Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/new-hampshire/


South Carolina


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/