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jg10003

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Member since: Fri Nov 5, 2010, 11:18 PM
Number of posts: 800

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Politico: Bernie's longshot victory strategy

This is what I have been saying, and it is possible

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-longshot-victory-superdelegates-220847?lo=ap_f1

....But Sanders campaign aides say they’ll be able to keep Clinton from reaching the 2,383 delegate magic number she’d need to clinch the nomination at the convention and, by being close enough, convince the superdelegates to switch, as some did when they changed from Clinton to Barack Obama in 2008.

“Absent Hillary getting out of the race, I think there’s no way that this race isn’t going to be very close in pledged delegates, even if we succeed,” Devine said. “The best outcome for us, given the nature of the system, is a very close advantage at the end."


Here are the details of how it can be done:

There are 4051 pledged delegates and 713 super-delegates: total = 4764 total delegates.

(4764/2) + 1 = 2383 delegates to win the nomination.

Bill Clinton & Wasserman-Schultz are SD, therefore Hillary can clinch the nomination with 2381 PD (58.776% of total PD)

4051 - 2381 = 1670
1670 + 1 = 1671.
Bernie needs 1671 PD (41.250% of total PD) in order to prevent Hillary from clinching the nomination with just pledged delegates.

Of course 1671 PD is just the theoretical minimum that Bernie needs, this would still put Hillary just one SD short of the nomination. However, if Bernie were to win 1771 PD (Hillary wins 2280 PD) then Hillary would be 100 SD short of the nomination.

I know some will say that the super-delegates should not over rule the primary results. My answer to them is:
1) According the the DNC, the purpose of the super-delegates is to make sure the best candidate is nominated. And the best candidate is the one with the best chance of winning the general election.

2) The DNC made the rules. Bernie using the rules to his advantage is just good politics. Bernie is politician, not a saint. Saints don't get elected.

3) Having a President Sanders is more important to our future then the nomination process.

4) THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON; If Trump is the GOP nominee then he must be stopped. Although I support Bernie, if by the time of the convention it appears that Clinton is the stronger candidate against Trump, then she should be nominated (even if Bernie has more pledged delegates). The country can survive another Third Way corporatist. We cannot survive a strongman dictator. Anyone who thinks that the United sates could not have a Francisco Franco,
Ferdinand Marcos, or Vladimir Putin is very wrong.


Huff post: Clinton wins MO by 1531 votes, 100% reporting

Can someone explain why CA, NY, PA, & NJ vote so late in the primary season

NY - 4/19
PA - 4/26
WI - 4/5
CA, NJ, - 6/7

Aren't these states at least as important as Nevada, SC, and Kansas? Why does the south and midwest get to decide who the nominee is.

Bernie revealed how he going to win. (and how he can do it only 1671 pledged delegates)

PART 1:
The first question at the Miami debate:

SALINAS: ....What is your pathway to make up the deficit, and can you realistically catch up?

SANDERS: ... And I think in the coming weeks and months, we are going to continue to do extremely well, win a number of these primaries, and convince super-delegates that Bernie Sanders is the strongest candidate to defeat Donald Trump.


PART 2:
There are 4051 pledged delegates [PD] and 713 super-delegates[SD]: total = 4764 total delegates.

(4764/2) + 1 = 2383 delegates to win the nomination.

Bill Clinton & Wasserman-Schultz are SD, therefore Hillary can clinch the nomination with 2381 PD (58.776% of total PD)

4051 - 2381 = 1670
1670 + 1 = 1671.
Bernie needs 1671 PD (41.250% of total PD) in order to prevent Hillary from clinching the nomination with just pledged delegates.

Of course 1671 PD is just the theoretical minimum that Bernie needs, this would still put Hillary just one SD short of the nomination. However, if Bernie were to win 1771 PD (Hillary wins 2280 PD) then Hillary would be 100 SD short of the nomination.

The last primary is June 14 and the convention starts July 25. A lot can happen in five and a half weeks, especially since the GOP has its convention first. If after the GOP convention the polls show that Bernie is a significantly stronger candidate against the GOP nominee then is Hillary, then the super-delegates will have to nominate him. Hillary can argue that she won the majority of pledged delegates, but at the convention all that matters is who can win the general election.

Raw Story: The momentum story: How the Bernie Sanders crowd can still win

The media and the political class have called it — Bernie Sanders has lost the Democratic Presidential nomination. They are flat wrong, and not for the first time.

Here’s the real story: the Sanders campaign is changing the laws of political physics — just like Trump did, only far more profoundly. The Bernie crowd is building the most extraordinary grassroots momentum I have ever seen. The movement is gathering strength by the day, and its chances to win are growing fast.


Full article here;
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/03/the-momentum-story-how-the-bernie-sanders-crowd-can-still-win/

Bernie can win the nomination with 41% of the pledged delegates

There are 4051 pledged delegates and 713 super-delegates: total = 4764.

(4764/2) + 1 = 2383 to win the nomination.

Suppose Bernie wins 1670 (approximately 41%) of the 4051 pledged delegates.
That means that Clinton will win 2381 pledged delegates; not enough to clinch the nomination.

That leaves Bernie (and us) 7 weeks before the convention to convince the super delegates that HRC can't win the GE. I think this may be Bernie's best chance.

The important thing to remember is: Even if Bernie "loses" every primary, he can still win enough delegates to put up a fight at the convention. So don't give up.

He doesn't need to win more pledged delegates, just enough to keep HRC from reaching the 2381

delegates needed for the nomination. It takes about 59% of the pledged delegates to get the nomination without super delegates. If Bernie can win 41% of the pledged delegates then the nomination is decided by the super delegates.

How Bernie can win: prevent HRC from winning a majority of pledged delegates in the primaries....

then he (and us) has 7 weeks before the convention to convince the super delegates that HRC can't win the GE. I think this may be Bernie's best chance.

Trivia question: Which president was the most experienced when he took office?

Answer: Richard Nixon; the only president to have served as a congressman, senator, and vice-president.

Other very experienced presidents include:
* Buchanan; 10 years a congressman, 4 years ambassador to Russia, 10 years a senator, 4 years secretary of state, 4 years as ambassador to England.

*Andrew Johnson; 10 years a congressman, 4 years governor of Tennessee, 5 years a senator, 3 years military governor of Tennessee.

*Martin Van Buren; senator, governor of New York, ambassador to England, Secretary of State, Vice-President.

Draw your own conclusions.

Maybe Bernie has been right about gun manufacturers

I support Bernie. I also support the same gun control measures as almost everyone on DU does (i.e. background checks, waiting periods, gun show loophole, assault weapons ban, etc.). But I have a hard time understanding why gun manufacturers should be held accountable if someone commits a crime with a gun.

This is not the same as cigarette companies selling a product that they know is dangerous while publicly stating that cigarettes do not cause cancer. Gun manufacturers do not deny their products are dangerous. They produce dangerous but legal products. If a manufacturer makes a gun that is accordance with government regulations, then how are they responsible if the gun is used in a crime?

Also if a gun store obeys all federal and state laws when selling a gun, then why should they be held responsible if the gun is used in a crime?
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