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Bill USA
Bill USA's Journal
Bill USA's Journal
December 14, 2012
The Democrats are in a strong position with the public as they engage in negotiations to find a solution to the fiscal cliff crisis. Barack Obama’s first post-reelection job approval rating has risen to 55%, up five points since July and 11 points since the start of the year. Obama’s job rating is markedly higher than George W. Bush’s first job measure (48%) after he won reelection in 2004.
[div class="excerpt" style="width:auto;float:left;"]
When it comes to the reaching an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff, 55% say Obama is making a serious effort to work with Republicans. But just 32% say Republican leaders are making a serious effort to work with Obama on a deficit deal.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Dec. 5-9 among 1,503 adults, finds that the current problems for the GOP run deep. Just 25% approve of the way Republican leaders in Congress are doing their jobs, while 40% approve of Democratic leaders’ job performance. And the GOP’s lead negotiator, House Speaker John Boehner, is viewed more unfavorably (40%) than favorably (28%).
By a 53% to 33% margin, the public sees the Republican Party, rather than the Democratic Party, as “more extreme in its positions.” Democrats, on the other hand, are seen as “more willing to work with leaders from the other party” by roughly two-to-one (53% vs. 27%).
(more)
PEW Research Center poll shows public backs Obama and Dems in Fiscal Cliff negotiations
http://www.people-press.org/2012/12/13/as-fiscal-cliff-nears-democrats-have-public-opinion-on-their-side/The Democrats are in a strong position with the public as they engage in negotiations to find a solution to the fiscal cliff crisis. Barack Obama’s first post-reelection job approval rating has risen to 55%, up five points since July and 11 points since the start of the year. Obama’s job rating is markedly higher than George W. Bush’s first job measure (48%) after he won reelection in 2004.
[div class="excerpt" style="width:auto;float:left;"]
When it comes to the reaching an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff, 55% say Obama is making a serious effort to work with Republicans. But just 32% say Republican leaders are making a serious effort to work with Obama on a deficit deal.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Dec. 5-9 among 1,503 adults, finds that the current problems for the GOP run deep. Just 25% approve of the way Republican leaders in Congress are doing their jobs, while 40% approve of Democratic leaders’ job performance. And the GOP’s lead negotiator, House Speaker John Boehner, is viewed more unfavorably (40%) than favorably (28%).
By a 53% to 33% margin, the public sees the Republican Party, rather than the Democratic Party, as “more extreme in its positions.” Democrats, on the other hand, are seen as “more willing to work with leaders from the other party” by roughly two-to-one (53% vs. 27%).
(more)
December 14, 2012
The video of Crowder taking those punches has gone viral, even as Crowder’s story about the circumstances has started to unravel. Regardless of exactly what happened leading up top the punches, however, there’s a potential crime caught on film and according to Michigan State Police, Crowder has so far shown no interest in having it investigated.
~~
~~
media reports have poked holes in the original, edited video Crowder posted online after he was punched. The New York Times reported “a look at the video broadcast on the Sean Hannity show appears to show quite clearly that [Crowder] left out an important section of the footage when he put together his edit.”
The unedited footage shows “the man who punched Mr. Crowder being knocked to the ground seconds before and then getting up and taking a swing at the comedian,” the Times reported.
Adamczyk doesn’t understand why Crowder wouldn’t report the crime to the police and get the perpetrator prosecuted. He stressed that the MSP will not go forward with an investigation unless a crime is reported, and “there are all types of personal reasons” people sometimes don’t report a crime, he said.
(more)
Tape of man slugging FOX schmuck heavily editted leaving out the guy being knocked down first
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/12/steven-crowder-no-charges.php?ref=fpnewsfeedThe video of Crowder taking those punches has gone viral, even as Crowder’s story about the circumstances has started to unravel. Regardless of exactly what happened leading up top the punches, however, there’s a potential crime caught on film and according to Michigan State Police, Crowder has so far shown no interest in having it investigated.
~~
~~
media reports have poked holes in the original, edited video Crowder posted online after he was punched. The New York Times reported “a look at the video broadcast on the Sean Hannity show appears to show quite clearly that [Crowder] left out an important section of the footage when he put together his edit.”
The unedited footage shows “the man who punched Mr. Crowder being knocked to the ground seconds before and then getting up and taking a swing at the comedian,” the Times reported.
Adamczyk doesn’t understand why Crowder wouldn’t report the crime to the police and get the perpetrator prosecuted. He stressed that the MSP will not go forward with an investigation unless a crime is reported, and “there are all types of personal reasons” people sometimes don’t report a crime, he said.
(more)
December 13, 2012
~~
~~
During a Sunday panel discussion on ABC, Republican strategist Mary Matalin sarcastically noted that her "hero," British economist John Maynard Keynes, had said that "ideas drive history, ideas drive progress and Heritage has long been the fount of so many great ideas."
"As a conservative, as a constitutionalist, that was a brilliant move -- a good move for us, a brilliant move for him," she insisted.
"The actual Keynes quote was he said, it's ideas 'which are dangerous for good or evil,'" Krugman pointed out. "I guess I've got a view in this case."
"I'm more interested in what does this do to Heritage?" the liberal economist continued. "I mean, this is somebody who has no sense that he's a researcher or an academic, anything like that. This is sort of taking the think out of the think tank, right? This is turning into a purely political institution."
Paul Krugman: Jim Demint - taking the 'think' out of Think-tank.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/krugman-demint-took-think-out-think-tank~~
~~
During a Sunday panel discussion on ABC, Republican strategist Mary Matalin sarcastically noted that her "hero," British economist John Maynard Keynes, had said that "ideas drive history, ideas drive progress and Heritage has long been the fount of so many great ideas."
"As a conservative, as a constitutionalist, that was a brilliant move -- a good move for us, a brilliant move for him," she insisted.
"The actual Keynes quote was he said, it's ideas 'which are dangerous for good or evil,'" Krugman pointed out. "I guess I've got a view in this case."
"I'm more interested in what does this do to Heritage?" the liberal economist continued. "I mean, this is somebody who has no sense that he's a researcher or an academic, anything like that. This is sort of taking the think out of the think tank, right? This is turning into a purely political institution."
December 13, 2012
(emphases my own)
~~
~~
Rep. Sander Levin of Michigan, the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, said the study “re-emphasizes the need for Republicans to end their entrenchment and to stop blocking a vote on the Senate bill that would extend the middle-class tax cuts.”
Levin was referring to Senate-passed legislation that would allow the Bush-era tax cuts to expire on families making more than $250,000. House Democrats filed a discharge petition to bring the bill to the floor, but so far it hasn’t garnered the signatures needed to force a vote.
Levin hopes the report encourages Boehner to bring the Senate bill to the floor, something that Texas Republican Kevin Brady told POLITICO on Thursday morning would be “unlikely."
[font size="+1"]The CRS report “put a stake in the heart of the Republican argument that small increases in the marginal tax rate for wealthy individuals somehow hurt economic growth,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, the ranking Democrat on the House Budget Committee.[/font]
(more)Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/dems-seize-on-re-issued-crs-tax-report-85067.html#ixzz2EyTiz3Rn
CRS reissues report concluding that tax cuts for highest income group doesn't stimulate growth
http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/dems-seize-on-re-issued-crs-tax-report-85067.html?hp=l4(emphases my own)
~~
~~
Rep. Sander Levin of Michigan, the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, said the study “re-emphasizes the need for Republicans to end their entrenchment and to stop blocking a vote on the Senate bill that would extend the middle-class tax cuts.”
Levin was referring to Senate-passed legislation that would allow the Bush-era tax cuts to expire on families making more than $250,000. House Democrats filed a discharge petition to bring the bill to the floor, but so far it hasn’t garnered the signatures needed to force a vote.
Levin hopes the report encourages Boehner to bring the Senate bill to the floor, something that Texas Republican Kevin Brady told POLITICO on Thursday morning would be “unlikely."
[font size="+1"]The CRS report “put a stake in the heart of the Republican argument that small increases in the marginal tax rate for wealthy individuals somehow hurt economic growth,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, the ranking Democrat on the House Budget Committee.[/font]
(more)
December 13, 2012
Clearly, with a much less right-wing legislature set to be seated in 2013, state Republicans have decided that now is the time to reward their extreme backers — like the Koch Brothers and Amway founder Rich DeVos — who do business in the state under the cloak of groups like Freedom to Work, the Mackinac Institute, and Americans for Prosperity.
~~
~~
Right after the GOP passed “Right to Work,” they went to work on a series of bills that will, according to Planned Parenthood’s Cecile Richards, make it “one of the most regressive states in the nation on women’s health.”
“One bill would likely shut down many health care providers that provide abortion by enacting unnecessary and burdensome licensing rules,” Richards wrote, in a blog on the Huffington Post. “Another would ban all insurance coverage for abortion. And one of the bills would allow medical providers to refuse to provide any medical service — from birth control to blood transfusions.”
~~
~~
This extreme legislation would make sense in a bright red state, not a state where Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow was just re-elected by a 20 percent margin.
(more)
Pro–'Right to Work' Groups In Michigan Outspend Union Counterparts
http://www.thenation.com/blog/171663/pro-right-work-groups-michigan-outspend-union-counterparts#
~~
~~
In the last few years, conservatives have made significant contributions to political organizations that have pushed the state to the right on core economic issues, and explicitly pushed right to work as a top goal (see the graph above):
• Americans for Prosperity–Michigan, the group founded by the billionaire Koch brothers, has a relatively new chapter in Michigan that has produced pamphlets extolling right-to-work reforms. This week, the group set up a heated tent outside the capital to support Snyder’s law and bused activists to Lansing to counter labor protesters.
• The Mackinac Center is a right-wing think tank in Michigan that issues pro-“right to work” reports, sponsors an anti-labor legal foundation and produces an array of other content, from a Pininterest page to short videos explaining why Michigan should adopt right-to-work. The center has gone on a media tour, touting Snyder’s move this week on CNN, Fox Business and much of the Michigan press. Notably, the group recently started two of its own media outlets, Michigan Capitol Confidential and Watchdog Wire Michigan.
These organizations are part of a more aggressive political force that is adept at controlling the twenty-four-hour news cycle and managing coalitions. Unlike ordinary business lobbies that simply support right-to-work, these advocacy groups go out and shape public opinion through broad messaging and content development, which in turn is used for organizing around policies.
Both AFP and the Mackinac Center are backed financially by the billionaire DeVos family, which has sought to control public policy debates through state-level nonprofits. Donors Trust, the nonprofit foundation used by wealthy conservative donors to anonymously finance activism on the right, has heavily funded AFP and Mackinac in the last three years. Doug DeVos chairs a nonprofit that has mobilized influential executives in the state to support right to work in Michigan.
(more)
Michigan GOP Push Through Anti-Union, Elite-Backed "Right-to-Work" Law (in lame duck session) Before House Majority Shrinks
(emphasis my own)
http://www.democracynow.org/2012/12/11/michigan_gop_push_through_anti_union
~~
~~
And what they also did throughout this process is put a nominal appropriation in the bill. The Michigan constitution does not allow any bill that has an appropriation in it to be subject to voter referendum. And this is a trick that they’ve been pulling in the Michigan Legislature lately to deny voters the right to weigh in on whether they ultimately want to have a law enacted. They’ve done that. They put this through without any committee hearings, no debate. The governor held a press conference at 11:00 last Thursday. By 3:00, we were voting on a bill that we’d never seen. We weren’t allowed to offer amendments. We weren’t even allowed to really speak to the bill. We were allowed to do a couple floor statements, and that was it, not any real debate. The governor said there would be thoughtful discussion on this, and apparently the only thoughtful discussion is when he’s on the phone with Dick DeVos and other billionaires who are pushing him to do this.(more)
Michigan’s GOP Extremism Goes Far Beyond Attacking Unions
In passing the anti-union legislation the Republicans also came up with $1 million in instant appropriation to put the law beyond the reach of a voter referendum.
http://www.nationalmemo.com/michigans-gop-extremism-goes-far-beyond-attacking-unions/
Clearly, with a much less right-wing legislature set to be seated in 2013, state Republicans have decided that now is the time to reward their extreme backers — like the Koch Brothers and Amway founder Rich DeVos — who do business in the state under the cloak of groups like Freedom to Work, the Mackinac Institute, and Americans for Prosperity.
~~
~~
Right after the GOP passed “Right to Work,” they went to work on a series of bills that will, according to Planned Parenthood’s Cecile Richards, make it “one of the most regressive states in the nation on women’s health.”
“One bill would likely shut down many health care providers that provide abortion by enacting unnecessary and burdensome licensing rules,” Richards wrote, in a blog on the Huffington Post. “Another would ban all insurance coverage for abortion. And one of the bills would allow medical providers to refuse to provide any medical service — from birth control to blood transfusions.”
~~
~~
This extreme legislation would make sense in a bright red state, not a state where Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow was just re-elected by a 20 percent margin.
(more)
Pro–'Right to Work' Groups In Michigan Outspend Union Counterparts
http://www.thenation.com/blog/171663/pro-right-work-groups-michigan-outspend-union-counterparts#
~~
~~
In the last few years, conservatives have made significant contributions to political organizations that have pushed the state to the right on core economic issues, and explicitly pushed right to work as a top goal (see the graph above):
• Americans for Prosperity–Michigan, the group founded by the billionaire Koch brothers, has a relatively new chapter in Michigan that has produced pamphlets extolling right-to-work reforms. This week, the group set up a heated tent outside the capital to support Snyder’s law and bused activists to Lansing to counter labor protesters.
• The Mackinac Center is a right-wing think tank in Michigan that issues pro-“right to work” reports, sponsors an anti-labor legal foundation and produces an array of other content, from a Pininterest page to short videos explaining why Michigan should adopt right-to-work. The center has gone on a media tour, touting Snyder’s move this week on CNN, Fox Business and much of the Michigan press. Notably, the group recently started two of its own media outlets, Michigan Capitol Confidential and Watchdog Wire Michigan.
These organizations are part of a more aggressive political force that is adept at controlling the twenty-four-hour news cycle and managing coalitions. Unlike ordinary business lobbies that simply support right-to-work, these advocacy groups go out and shape public opinion through broad messaging and content development, which in turn is used for organizing around policies.
Both AFP and the Mackinac Center are backed financially by the billionaire DeVos family, which has sought to control public policy debates through state-level nonprofits. Donors Trust, the nonprofit foundation used by wealthy conservative donors to anonymously finance activism on the right, has heavily funded AFP and Mackinac in the last three years. Doug DeVos chairs a nonprofit that has mobilized influential executives in the state to support right to work in Michigan.
(more)
Michigan GOP Push Through Anti-Union, Elite-Backed "Right-to-Work" Law (in lame duck session) Before House Majority Shrinks
(emphasis my own)
http://www.democracynow.org/2012/12/11/michigan_gop_push_through_anti_union
~~
~~
And what they also did throughout this process is put a nominal appropriation in the bill. The Michigan constitution does not allow any bill that has an appropriation in it to be subject to voter referendum. And this is a trick that they’ve been pulling in the Michigan Legislature lately to deny voters the right to weigh in on whether they ultimately want to have a law enacted. They’ve done that. They put this through without any committee hearings, no debate. The governor held a press conference at 11:00 last Thursday. By 3:00, we were voting on a bill that we’d never seen. We weren’t allowed to offer amendments. We weren’t even allowed to really speak to the bill. We were allowed to do a couple floor statements, and that was it, not any real debate. The governor said there would be thoughtful discussion on this, and apparently the only thoughtful discussion is when he’s on the phone with Dick DeVos and other billionaires who are pushing him to do this.(more)
December 13, 2012
[div class="excerpt" style="width:auto;float:left;"]
[div class="excerpt" style="width:360px;float:right;"]
Banker responds to news of Warren's appointment to Senate Banking Committee
Talk about karma.
After lobbying ferociously to prevent Elizabeth Warren from running the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the banking industry now must contend with her sitting on the Senate Banking Committee.
Rumors have circulated for weeks the Massachusetts senator-elect would be tapped for the gig overseeing the industry she so completely cheesed off with accusations of fraud and unfair play. Now it's official.
You can almost hear the muttering among bankers about the tough-love they're going to face.
(more)
There's a Sherriff in Dodge City - Elizabeth Warren lands seat on Senate Banking Committee
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-warren-banking-committee-20121213,0,903736.story[div class="excerpt" style="width:auto;float:left;"]
[div class="excerpt" style="width:360px;float:right;"]
Banker responds to news of Warren's appointment to Senate Banking Committee
Talk about karma.
After lobbying ferociously to prevent Elizabeth Warren from running the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the banking industry now must contend with her sitting on the Senate Banking Committee.
Rumors have circulated for weeks the Massachusetts senator-elect would be tapped for the gig overseeing the industry she so completely cheesed off with accusations of fraud and unfair play. Now it's official.
You can almost hear the muttering among bankers about the tough-love they're going to face.
(more)
December 12, 2012
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds that 60 percent of respondents support raising taxes on households that earn more than $250,000 a year and 64 percent want to raise taxes on large corporations.
Even 39 percent of Republicans support raising taxes on households making more than $250,000. Independents favor such a move by 21 percentage points, 59 to 38 percent.
Only 38 percent buy the GOP argument that raising taxes on households earning over $250,000 per year will have a negative impact on the economy. Fifty-eight percent do not.
(more)
Politico- Washington University poll: 60% favor raising taxes on those earning >$250K
http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/battleground-poll-hike-taxes-on-the-rich-84824.htmlA new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds that 60 percent of respondents support raising taxes on households that earn more than $250,000 a year and 64 percent want to raise taxes on large corporations.
Even 39 percent of Republicans support raising taxes on households making more than $250,000. Independents favor such a move by 21 percentage points, 59 to 38 percent.
Only 38 percent buy the GOP argument that raising taxes on households earning over $250,000 per year will have a negative impact on the economy. Fifty-eight percent do not.
(more)
December 12, 2012
The graph below, based on our research, shows the relationship between the cumulative change in income and payroll tax liabilities for the top 5 percent over a two-year period as a share of gross domestic product and employment growth in the two years after the change.
~~
The graph and the regression analysis on which it is based reveal that there is no link between income tax cuts for the top 5 percent and subsequent job creation. (We also examined the relationship between tax cuts for the top 10 percent and subsequent job creation and found the same result.)
~~
~~
Tax cuts for everyone else are a much more effective path to job creation. Our research found a statistically significant and positive relationship between tax cuts for the bottom 95 percent and job growth at both the national and state levels. The graph below shows the relationship for the national data. Our results indicate that almost all of the stimulative effect of income and payroll tax cuts on job creation in the short to medium run result from such cuts for the bottom 95 percent.
Lower-income taxpayers spend a higher share of their tax cuts. Many of these taxpayers often have more difficulty borrowing money and tapping into their housing wealth than higher-income individuals. These demand-side forces explain why consumption goes up much more after tax cuts for the bottom 95 percent than after equivalently sized cuts for the top 5 percent. An increase in consumption, which still accounts for about 70 percent of G.D.P., fuels increases in demand, and that leads companies to create more jobs. In survey after survey, businesses confirm that changes in demand are the primary determinant of their employment decisions.
Investment also increases after tax cuts for the bottom 95 percent, suggesting that shifting moderately size tax cuts to the bottom 95 percent from the top 5 percent isn’t a zero-sum trade-off between consumption and investment.
(more)
Tax Cuts for the job creators DO produce job growth. (job creators: the 'bottom' 95%)
It's another nail in the coffin of Trickle Down - Supply Side econocomics.
Research by Laura D'Andrea Tyson (Ph.D. in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1974. She taught economics at Princeton for three years, is now a professor at Univ. of California, Berkeley) shows there is no correlation between tax cuts for high income earners (top 5% and top 10%) and job creation in ensuing two years but that there IS a correlaion for tax cuts for those in the bottom 95% in income distribution and job creation in the next two years following the tax cuts.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/tax-cuts-for-job-creators/
(all emphases my own)
The graph below, based on our research, shows the relationship between the cumulative change in income and payroll tax liabilities for the top 5 percent over a two-year period as a share of gross domestic product and employment growth in the two years after the change.
~~
The graph and the regression analysis on which it is based reveal that there is no link between income tax cuts for the top 5 percent and subsequent job creation. (We also examined the relationship between tax cuts for the top 10 percent and subsequent job creation and found the same result.)
~~
~~
Tax cuts for everyone else are a much more effective path to job creation. Our research found a statistically significant and positive relationship between tax cuts for the bottom 95 percent and job growth at both the national and state levels. The graph below shows the relationship for the national data. Our results indicate that almost all of the stimulative effect of income and payroll tax cuts on job creation in the short to medium run result from such cuts for the bottom 95 percent.
Lower-income taxpayers spend a higher share of their tax cuts. Many of these taxpayers often have more difficulty borrowing money and tapping into their housing wealth than higher-income individuals. These demand-side forces explain why consumption goes up much more after tax cuts for the bottom 95 percent than after equivalently sized cuts for the top 5 percent. An increase in consumption, which still accounts for about 70 percent of G.D.P., fuels increases in demand, and that leads companies to create more jobs. In survey after survey, businesses confirm that changes in demand are the primary determinant of their employment decisions.
Investment also increases after tax cuts for the bottom 95 percent, suggesting that shifting moderately size tax cuts to the bottom 95 percent from the top 5 percent isn’t a zero-sum trade-off between consumption and investment.
(more)
December 11, 2012
"Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) took to the floor of the House to proclaim that he was still waiting on the White House to outline specific spending cuts they would be willing to accept."
(more)
Corporate Lobbyist spending cutters want Obama to come up with the cuts for them to pick and choose
..from. They are the ones who are hot to cut spending, they can identify what they want to cut.
They would rather have Obama identify specific cuts so later they can say: "well, it was the Presidents idea!"... No fuckers, you're idea is to cut spending ... so what do we cut? If they want Obama to be first to identify specific cuts he should start with the salaries of the GOP anarchists who have said they are just there to deconstruct government. If they want to deconstruct Government, we can start deconstructing with their fucking salaries!
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/republicans-bring-obama-another-offer-in-fiscal-cliff
"Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) took to the floor of the House to proclaim that he was still waiting on the White House to outline specific spending cuts they would be willing to accept."
(more)
December 11, 2012
Revenues foregone due to cuts to top income tax brackets, since 1982: $8.4 Trillion
It's been noted that the top few percent started to distance themselves from the rest of us starting around 1980-82. In 1982 the tax rates started getting reduced - in particular for the highest tax brackets. The top marginal rates went from 70% in 1981 to 35% in 2003 (28% in 1988 to 31% in 1991 to 39.6% in 1993) (see wikiPedia). I thought I would see how much revenue we would have had if he top tax bracket income tax rates been held at the 1980 levels over the last 30 years. The number for the lost revenues I got came to $8.4 trillion.
I used Emanuel Saez (Univ of Calif. Berkeley) and Thomas Piketty's (Paris School of Economics) spreadsheet which provides the income distributions over the period from 1913 to 2010. I applied income tax rates for the ensuing years and compared the taxes paid (in theory) to the taxes that would have been paid if the 1980 rates applied for the entire period (1980-2010).
Here is the link to the spreadsheet for those interested: Tax Revenues foregone (1980-2010)
(note this is a big spreadsheet (mostly Saez and Piketty's work) so it may take a while to download to your computer)
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