relayerbob

relayerbob's Journal

March 5, 2022

Meanwhile in Russia

In Nizhnekamsk, Russia, workers at the Hemont plant staged a spontaneous strike.

February 27, 2022

Two oligarchs have spoken publicly agasint the war

This is not a good sign for Putin. Guaranteed a lot more are talking privately

Per Kyiv Independent:

"In his Telegram channel, industrial tycoon Oleg Deripaska wrote that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine must begin “as soon as possible!” Prior, Lviv-born Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman called Russia’s war “a tragedy.”

Putin's days are numbered and he knows it. His increasingly desparate actions will only result in a quicker realization by the people in Russia, especially the ones with money and guns, that he has to go. Sooner, rather than later

February 25, 2022

I have a feeling Putin's days are numbered

This war is not off to a good start. It was stupid to begin with, and there certainly was not a uniform agreement that Ukraine is a threat. The generals and oligarchs are likely to be unhappy now, and will be progressively less entertained if Putin's Folly doesn't play out in their favor soon.

1 - It will take Russia years to decades to recover politically, socially and economically from this. They've been shamed and isolated now, and this will set the country back enormously.
2 - The oligarchs are losing money, big time. They won't like that. At all. And they know that Putin has a LOT of money. They will be more than happy to take it from him to make up for their losses.
3 - Military leaders care about honor. Even Russian ones. They aren't stupid, their honor is being crushed by invading Ukraine at all.
4 - If they are unable to achieve a clear military victory, then it shows their military as weak. This will also piss off the Russian military leadership. And let's face it, Ukraine is not going to roll over. There will be guerilla war forever, even if the Russians possibly win in the short run.
5 - The public is already protesting and this will likely only get worse. Many of them have relatives in Ukraine. Few will consider Ukraine as an enemy.

At some point, the military and the oligarchs are going to realize that Putin is a more of a liability to them than a benefit, on a personal level. Russia's history is filled with leaders being overthrown and blamed for all the ills that were in place. The generals and oligarchs will see at some point, if they haven't already, that their best bet is to eliminate him, blame it all on him, hand some of Putin's wealth to Ukraine as reparations, give up as much info as they dare to on Putin's screwing around with the West, as a part of trying to save face and get the sanctions removed. Putin is only as powerful as the guy holding the guns for him. That guy decides not to, it's over. No elections, no SCOTUS, no court battles.

I know this is possibly a pipe dream, but I have a feeling this is about to all come to a head. Maybe a head on a pike. Maybe sooner than anyone thinks.

February 16, 2022