Amimnoch
Amimnoch's JournalState of the Battleground - October edition.
1st and September edition here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316
Highlights: Only 2 new polls have come out in the battleground states since last months posting. Florida Atlantic University poll put out in the end of September, and an Emmerson poll covering Ohio. All 3 of our frontrunners have lost ground and are now in near tie ups when matched up against the Cheeto in Florida. In Ohio, Biden has slipped by 2 points while Warren and Sanders have both made gains of 5 points and 7 points respectively.
Below is the raw numbers from each of the most recent RCP polls that covers all 3 candidates available. Ones in Bold are the only changes with updated matchup polls.
Florida - 29 electoral votes - Florida Atlantic University - September 2019 (new poll) - MoE 3.1
https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2019/florida-poll-finds-trump-popular-in-the-sunshine-state-while-biden-dominates-democratic-field.php
Biden: -1 loss - Slipped from +9 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Warren: 0 tie - slipped from +4 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: -1 loss - slipped from +6 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019 - MoE 4.2 no new poll
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win
Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from this past week - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - slipped from +8 win from July Quinnipiac poll
Warren: +4 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: +6 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll
Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019 Moe 4.0
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win
Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019 MoE 4.0
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss
Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019 MoE 3.9
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win
As before, here are what the maps would look like assuming these polls were election reality. Within the MoE remains battleground, within 2 points outside the MOE will indicate light blue/red indicating "leans", and >2 points outside the MoE will be solid Blue/Red.
Joe Biden Map
Elizabeth Warren Map
Bernie Sanders Map
State of the battleground!
My stated support from the beginning was for the candidate that I believe to be most likely to win in 2020. I also state regularly that I'm putting no stock in national matchups since it's painfully obvious we cannot count on these as they reflect the popular vote more than the Electoral college vote. Below is a look at each of the battleground states, and how the most recent matchup polls in those states are looking.
The below is ordered by the number of EC votes given.
Florida - 29 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from June 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2629
Biden: +9 win
Warren: +4 win
Sanders: +6 win
Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win
Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from July 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/oh/oh07252019_omwb36.pdf/
Biden: +8 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -1 loss
Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win
Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss
Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win
The above are all of the most recent polls, that covered matchups between all 3 candidates and Trump at the RCP site.
Below is what the matchup results above would look like on the 270 to win map. If within the margin of error, color remains battleground, if a narrow win light blue, if a solid win (6 points or more) dark blue.
Joe Biden map
Elizabeth Warren map
Bernie Sanders map
Very pleased that when it does come down to the critical states (as of latest matchup polls) all 3 of our front running candidates have the ability to take on Cheetolini!
The PABUS
ROFL, goodbye "cheetolini" and hello "PABUS" - Pussy Ass Bitch of the United States.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/chrissy-teigen-donald-trump-president-pab_n_5d77023de4b0752102319b1e
But there was just one problem with the scathing presidential put-down cooked up by Teigen: It’s likely too dirty for Twitter trends ― so the president’s critics had to devise another way to get it onto the list.
Trump attacked Legend on Sunday night after the musician appeared on an MSNBC special about criminal justice reform. He also insulted model and cookbook author Teigen but without mentioning her name.
Instead, the president referred to her only as Legend’s “filthy mouthed wife.”
Trump tagged Legend and NBC’s Lester Holt, but not Teigen ― and she fired back by taunting him with a new nickname:
https://twitter.com/chrissyteigen/status/1170914148919590914
Much more good reading at the Huffpo link.
Never thought I'd be reduced to using a word like that on any president (or anyone for that matter).. even Republican ones. I don't think I've used that descriptor for anyone since high school, if then, but with all the foul things he and his surrogates throw at us, and since this is something that elicits reaction from them.. I'm okay.
Philosophical hypothetical question 1:
You are an elected representative for your congressional district. Before you is a bill to vote on. You know that passing this bill would not be in the best interests or benefit of your own constituency, but it is also would be widely popular in your district.
Voting yes on this bill would benefit you in getting re-elected, and make those who elected you happy, but you know it will impact them negatively.
Voting no on this bill may jeopardize your chances at reelection, and you know it's going to make for some very unpleasant town hall meetings, but you do know it's what's best for your district and the people you represent.
How do you vote?
Pray for Trump, Psalm 109:8 - Lord hear our prayer!
"May his days be few; may another take his place of leadership"- Psalm 109:8
(For disclosure, I saw this as a meme on Facebook this morning, and found it too funny not to share)
Fox News, Ann Coulter, and Karl Rove.. oh my.
So, all of a sudden, Fox has gone all in on BS. Coulter is okay with BS, and ole Rove is shilling for him as well.
I guess medicare for all is now on the tRumpublicon platform? Democratic Socialism is just fiiiiine. They can all get behind BS!!!
You want to know why they are all in for BS?
https://www.openprimaries.org/primaries_by_state
See all those orange states? Those are the states that have open primary elections. Most of which none of the voters even have to do party registration.
Cheetolini isn't going to have any serious primary challenge. This frees them up to select the candidate that they think they can do their best with and load the deck.
So you can either believe that Fox News really did have interest in giving Bernie a great platform, and a "fair and balanced" coverage from it, and that Ann Coulter "really" believes that Bernie wouldn't be that bad, and Karl Rove really thinks that Bernie is going to be the hard one to beat because he has such great position.. OR
They are giving their nod to their voters that can vote in Democratic Party Primaries on just which candidate they should be going and vote for on those primary dates.
Has everyone lost their collective minds??
1. Sexual harrassment did not happen by any definition.
2. Sexual assault did not happen by any definition.
3. Biden does have a well recorded history of being a contact person. This does not equate to either of the conditions laid out in 1 or 2, but it is an opening for persons receiving said affection to be uncomfortable, and the person whose personal space is invaded does have the right to be or not be uncomfortable as a result.
4. Anyone who has been through any kind of LCEC, or workplace harassment course can tell you, there are behaviors that are not acceptable period (wanton staring/leering, groping, cornering in a threatening manner, conditioning career advancement in return for personal attentions) which does not warrant response to be in violation.
5. there are conditions where it is incumbent upon the person who is made uncomfortable to make an oral declaration of discomfort, such as complimenting ones attire, placing hands upon a person in any way that is not overtly sexual in nature, or making a verbal or non-verbal request of an intimate nature (such as asking to go out for drinks, or dinner).
6. Biden made the PERFECT response of acknowledging the complaint against him, validating the feelings of the person making the complaint, and issuing heartfelt remorse that any behavior of his may have made a person feel discomfort.
7. It does NOT matter that the person stating feelings of violation has a history of wearing any kind of clothing, or appearance. He/she/they give NO consent to ANY behavior based on their dress, appearance, or history.
8. It does NOT matter if the person stating the feelings of violation has a history of accepting the contact or discourse with others. He/she/they have stated an issue of feeling violation for this incident. It matters. It deserves to be addressed.
I really wish more would respect the person(‘s) making complaints, because not doing so now distinctly sends the message that it isn’t okay to come forward with more serious infractions, and I also wish that more would recognize that this isn’t the same level of infraction, the accused has made a statement that completely respects the accusors, and promises atonement, which is standard and generally accepted recompense for the level of infraction that was committed.
GET A GRIP PEOPLE!!!
Beto Kick off rally today 11:30 central time
Watching the crowds right now on the live stream:
https://www.texastribune.org/2019/03/29/beto-orourke-el-paso-texas-watch-live-here/
The Liberal case against Bernie
The Liberal case against Berniehttps://www.thenation.com/article/bernie-sanders-electability-eric-alterman/
Let me clarify: I’ve been a fan and supporter of Sanders ever since he was elected mayor of Burlington, Vermont, in 1981. I was honored to be asked to testify before him in Congress years ago, and I voted for him in the New York presidential primary in 2016. I did so, however, not because I imagined he might win the nomination, but because I hoped that a strong showing by Sanders would help wake up Hillary Clinton to the importance of addressing economic inequality, and also to honor his brave criticism of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank.
I was wrong. Sanders turned so negative toward Clinton that it hurt her in the general election. Even though he campaigned for her after he lost the nomination, roughly 12 percent of Sanders’s supporters switched to Trump, and enough of the rest supported Jill Stein’s kamikaze candidacy that it helped tip key states to Trump.
My sentiments exactly. He was a toxic variable that played a crucial part in Cheetolini’s rise to power, and I suspected from beginning of this season, and completely reinforced with all of the attacks we are seeing from his surrogates that a repeat is in play.
This election is too important for his purity games.
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: Breaux Bridge, Louisiana
Home country: United States
Current location: Houston, TX
Member since: Tue Jul 3, 2007, 07:34 AM
Number of posts: 4,558
