May 23, 2012

Hi I'm Steven Leser (imagine that!) from NYC

I am a lifelong Democrat who is passionate about politics and my beliefs (I doubt anyone who has ever discussed politics or history with me comes away thinking otherwise).

I was destined to be a political junkie. I was born on election day, Nov 5, 1968. Yes, it was a Presidential election year, unfortunately, our guy didn't win.

My first political experience was somewhere between the ages of 3-4. My mother went canvassing door to door for the ERA and took me along.

I am the proud parent of an amazing 18 yr old young lady who is about to graduate with a 4.0 GPA and soccer scholarship.

My two darkest political moments were, #1 -At the Pinellas county election night victory party in 2000 at a bar in Clearwater Florida when Florida was pulled back from Gore. #2 - I had been a recount observer in Pinellas County and left a busy supervisor of elections office one day to go to lunch and when I came back it was a ghost town with the Supreme Court's decision nailed to the door.

My brightest political moment was being in Harlem election night in 2008 and celebrating madly with the residents the election of our amazing new President!

May 16, 2012

IMHO Way worth it but LAT: Analysis: Gay marriage decision not working in Obama's favor so far

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/15/news/la-pn-analysis-gay-marriage-decision-not-working-in-obamas-favor-so-far-20120515

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That said, the first wave of polling is in, and the results aren’t looking particularly good for Obama. Taken together, four different national opinion surveys over the past week, by reputable organizations with good track records, indicate that the president’s stand could well hurt him politically. Unsurprisingly, the numbers are fairly close; but as often gets pointed out, tight elections are decided by small numbers of votes.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Obama comes from a new ABC/Washington Post poll, which found that independent swing voters had a slightly more favorable than unfavorable view of his position (though the results were a statistical tie, given the margin of error for that subgroup). ABC’s analysis, by statistician Damla Ergun of Langer Research Associates, pointed out that independents who reacted most strongly to the decision tilted against it, and that “strong sentiment can better predict voter turnout and vote preferences.”

A Gallup poll found that the overall change in public opinion was a” net minus” for Obama, though the organization cautioned that these results could change, depending on the degree to which same-sex marriage is, or is not, a campaign issue in the fall.

The latest New York Times/CBS poll showed that 26% of voters were less likely to support Obama as a result of his announcement, compared with 16% who said they were more likely to support him. But the small overall sample size and the lack of any valid sub-group data make those numbers fairly useless for purposes of predicting voter behavior. The poll did find, however, that a clear majority of Americans regarded Obama’s declaration of support for same-sex marriage as largely a political move, which doesn’t help him at all.

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We're going to win this thing regardless, and then Obama is going to appoint two more Liberal justices to the SCOTUS who will be the deciding factor in an LGBT version of Loving v Virginia and that will be that.