February 14, 2019

Ask the right questions.

Q: What had Paul Manafort already procured, that he jeopardized by lying?
A: A reduced sentence.

Q: Why would you jeopardize something you have already procured?
A: Because you are trying to get something even better.

Q: What's better than a reduced sentence?
A: No sentence.

Q: How does a felon get no sentence?
A: Immunity, or a pardon.

Q: Does Mueller do immunity?
A: Doubtful.

Q: How does one procure a pardon?
A: By gaining the favor of Trump.

Q: In what way did Manafort seek to do this?
A: He lied.

Q: What effect does lying have?
A: It conceals the facts.

Q: When might concealing the facts gain someone's favor?
A: When the facts pose a threat to that person.

Q: How can a person be threatened?
A: By threat to their safety, to their livelihood, to their liberty, or to their reputation.

Q: Can Trump's safety be threatened?
A: No; he has the Secret Service.

Q: Can Trump's livelihood be threatened?
A: No; his net worth, even if exaggerated, is considerable.

Q: Can Trump's liberty be threatened?
A: Not while he is President.

Q: Can Trump's reputation be threatened?
A: Yes, if he has committed an act so egregious, and for which the evidence is so compelling, that even his base abandons him.

Q: What would the effect of such an abandonment be?
A: It would jeopardize the two things he seems to hold in highest regard: his ego, and his Presidency.

Q: If his Presidency is jeopardized, can Trump's liberty then be threatened?
A: Yes, if he has broken the law.

Q: Therefore, putting it all together, what is Manafort hiding?
A: That Trump has committed acts that disqualify him from being President -- even as far as his base is concerned.

Q: What are those acts?

November 7, 2016

Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada. She needs ONE.

For the sake of argument, I've given all red-leaning tossups to the GOP sexual predator, and left all blue-leaning tossups blank. Assuming Hillary's "firewall" holds, she has 268 EVs in the bag.

She only needs one more state. One out of four.

And last I checked, all four were looking pretty good.

Polls in Florida close at 7pm EST. In North Carolina, 7:30 EST. In New Hampshire it varies by location, but generally 7pm EST. In Nevada, 10pm EST or 7pm PST (except for West Wendover which is in MST because sometimes people are weird).

Basically, if New Hampshire is as good as it looks, and if it's called right away, and if there are no apparent holes in the firewall, we might know by 7pm EST that Hillary is the President-elect. That's 32 hours from now.

Fingers crossed.

October 10, 2016

Chichiri's State of The Election - 29 Days to Go

This map was created by my own analysis of several poll aggregators and modelers.





The solid blue states add up to 273 electoral votes. If anyone can think of a realistic scenario under which Hillary loses any of those states, I'd like to hear it.

I'm regarding Ohio as gray right now because, although several pollsters and modelers currently have it leaning blue, the consensus is pretty weak -- that is, while the polls are leaning our way, it's not by much. I want to see more polling in the state.

As of this writing, Arizona is pale blue in 538's Now-cast. That's a very volatile model, and I don't expect that will hold unless we see a rather large sea change from this weekend, but it's certainly heartwarming!

September 10, 2016

It's not a stretch.

Of the minority of people in this country who are politically active, it's really not a stretch to figure that about 20% of them are deplorables.

It's even less of a stretch to figure that deplorables want nothing to do with the "Stronger Together" camp.

And really, if you check out the Trump supporters at his rallies, on his fan sites, at his town halls, on the street . . . you'll start to wonder if "half" isn't being overly generous.

August 2, 2016

STATE OF THE ELECTION - August 2, 2016

97 Days to Election



Electoral Models (270 to win)

PEC: Clinton 324.

NYT: Clinton 328.

538 PO: Clinton 310.

538 PP: Clinton 298.

Cook: Clinton 304 (44 tossups).*

R&G: Clinton 332 (15 tossups).*

Sabato: Clinton 347.*


Win probabilities

PEC: Clinton 82%.

NYT: Clinton 74%.

538 PO: Clinton 68%.

538 PP: Clinton 66%.

PredictWise: Clinton 74%.




Recent Polls

General 2-way (YouGov): Clinton 46, Trump 43.

General 2-way (NBC): Clinton 50, Trump 42.

General 4-way (YouGov): Clinton 41, Trump 36, Johnson 8.

General 4-way (NBC): Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 9.


Nevada 3-way (Rasmussen): Clinton 41, Trump 40, Johnson 10.



Comments:

Still under construction.



Methodology

Data for electoral models and probabilities is taken from Princeton Election Consortium, the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight (the polls-only model and the polls-plus model), Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Larry J. Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, PredictWise. Entries with an asterisk (*) have not been recently updated. Polling data is aggregated from RealClearPolitics.



Quote of the Day:

"The tax which will be paid for the purpose of education is not more than the thousandth part of what will be paid to kings, priests, and nobles who will rise up among us if we leave the people in ignorance." --Thomas Jefferson

August 1, 2016

STATE OF THE ELECTION - August 1, 2016

98 Days to Election


Electoral Models (270 to win)

PEC: Clinton 319.

NYT: Clinton 328.

538 PO: Clinton 293.

538 PP: Clinton 299.

Cook: Clinton 304 (44 tossups).*

R&G: Clinton 332 (15 tossups).

Sabato: Clinton 347.


Win probabilities

PEC Drift: Clinton 65%.

PEC Bayesian: Clinton 80%.

NYT: Clinton 72%.

538 PO: Clinton 60%.

538 PP: Clinton 67%.


PredictWise: Clinton 72%.

Betfair: Clinton 72%.

Hypermind: Clinton 61%.

PredictIt: Clinton 69%.

IEM: Clinton 71%.



Recent Polls

General (CBS): Clinton 47, Trump 41.

General (CNN): Clinton 52, Trump 32.

General 4-way (CNN): Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 9.

General 3-way (CBS): Clinton 43, Trump 38, Johnson 10.

General (PPP): Clinton 50, Trump 45.

General 4-way (PPP): Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 6.



Penn. (PPP): Clinton 49, Trump 45.

Penn. 4-way (PPP): Clinton 45, Trump 42, Johnson 4.

Missouri 4-way (St Louis Post-Dispatch): Clinton 41, Trump 40, Johnson 9.



Comments:

Under construction.



Methodology

Data for electoral models and probabilities is taken from Princeton Election Consortium (the random drift and Bayesian models), the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight (the polls-only model and the polls-plus model), Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Larry J. Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, PredictWise, Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, and Iowa Electronic Markets. Entries with an asterisk (*) have not been recently updated. Polling data is aggregated from RealClearPolitics.



Quote of the Day:

"I believe that, as long as there is plenty, poverty is evil." --Robert Kennedy

June 9, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - June 9, 2016 (Final Edition)

Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 2,178, Sanders 1,810 (Clinton +368).
Total Delegates: Clinton 2,752, Sanders 1,858 (Clinton +894).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 0 pledged delegates, 0.0% of remaining.
Sanders needs 216 pledged delegates, 342.9% of remaining.


Latest Results: June 6

CA, MT, NJ, NM, ND, SD : Clinton 367, Sanders 284 (Clinton +83); 43 not yet allocated.


Next Primary: June 13

DC: 20 delegates. (Final contest of 2016.)



Comments
It's over.

There are 63 pledged delegates still left to be allocated, and even if Sanders claims them all, Hillary will have beaten him by over 300 delegates. She clinched the pledged delegate majority eight years to the day after conceding to Barack Obama in the 2008 primary.

There will be no nationwide recount. There will be no massive flipping of superdelegates. There will be no visit from the indictment fairy. Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee, and in a matter of weeks she will be the first woman Presidential candidate from a major party in American history.

So that's it, that's how the Democratic primary went down. There's a lot more legwork to do; there's the floor vote in late July, and of course we're still waiting on Sanders's concession (which, I'm guessing from how the guy's been acting these last weeks, we may not see until November). But the legwork is all that's left.

There's also the Republican contest, which in the end came down to an unhinged son of a fire-and-brimstone pastor, and an even more unhinged reality show host with multiple marriages and bankruptcies. Knowing the crazy-driven GOP of 2016, it should surprise no one that reality show host won. We still have to defeat him in November, and we should take nothing for granted. But I have the feeling that, in the end, this will also come down to just legwork.

I believe, as firmly as I've held any political belief, that our newborn daughters will never know a world without a Madame President.

About time, too.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I hope you've enjoyed these puns. In fact, I enjoyed telling them so much that I took the best of them and entered a pun-telling contest! I told ten puns to a panel of judges, and was scored based on how many of the ten puns made them laugh.

Unfortunately, no pun in ten did.

May 13, 2016

STATE OF THE ELECTION - May 13, 2016

179 Days to Election Day

Here's where we start:



Solid colored states are 4-0 in the last four elections. Light colored states are 3-1. Gray states are 2-2. (It is worth noting that most of the gray states were, in chronological order, red-red-blue-blue.)

Assuming Hillary takes all solid blue states, she is 28 electoral votes short of victory. Possible routes to that number include:


* Ohio and Virginia.
* Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire.
* Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada.
* Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico.
* Ohio, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
* Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada.
* Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.
* Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.
* Florida.


It will be a while before we start to see reliable matchup polls and overall forecasts. For one thing, while both parties now have a presumptive nominee, the primaries are still technically underway. For another, quite a bit could happen in the next 179 days. (One of the nominees could be struck by lightning. Or the Indictment Fairy could grant the wildest dreams of the few remaining Sanders hopefuls and cause legal trouble for Hillary. Or Trump could open his mouth and say something.)

So for the next few months, at least, these updates will be sporadic, sparse, and speculative. But we're now at the point where we can track the 2016 general election, and as the Clinton campaign has turned its main focus on that battle, so should we all.


Riddle of the Day
I ask no questions, but I demand answers. What am I?

April 20, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 20, 2016

48 Days to California.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,444, Sanders 1,207 (Clinton +237).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,946, Sanders 1,245 (Clinton +701).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 582 pledged delegates, 41.6% of remaining.
Sanders needs 819 pledged delegates, 58.5% of remaining.


Latest Results: April 19

New York: Clinton 139, Sanders 108 (Clinton +31).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton +20, Sanders -20.
Versus Adjusted Targets: Clinton +20, Sanders -20.


Next Primary: April 26

CT, DE, MD, PA, RI: 384 delegates total.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 201, Clinton 183.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 221, Clinton 163.



Comments
Out of the month-long dark tunnel, into the bright sunshine!

Yesterday, before the New York election results came in, Nate Silver considered three possible scenarios for New York. If Bernie won by a few points, it would be, not merely a shitstorm, but a "shit hurricane." It would be a bigger upset than Michigan, and would signify real trouble for Hillary's campaign. If Hillary won by a few points, it would be a setback for Sanders, but he would get positive press coverage because he managed to set expectations so low. Lastly, if Hillary won by fifteen points, it would signal that Hillary will do well in states like Pennsylvania, and would make it almost impossible for Sanders to catch up.

Hillary won by sixteen points.

There's really not much need to spin these numbers, is there? 1,400 pledged delegates remain to be allocated, and Sanders needs 819 of them. If any numbers wonk knows of a way he can get them, he or she is awfully good at keeping it a secret.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I just can't picture myself taking selfies!

April 19, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 19, 2016 (Big Apple Edition)

49 Days to California


Delegate Count


Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,305, Sanders 1,099 (Clinton +206).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,774, Sanders 1,130 (Clinton +644).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 721 pledged delegates, 43.8% of remaining.
Sanders needs 927 pledged delegates, 56.3% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: TODAY

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.



Comments
Where the hell have I been?

I started my new job this week. It would take a long time for me to explain what a big deal this is for me, and you have more important things to think about. Like New York! But as I said earlier, expect more sporadicity from SotP from now on.

Hillary is widely favored to win New York tonight -- which, Sanders fans will gleefully note, gives him a chance to pull off another Michigan. On the one hand, no one who's been paying attention can deny that Bernie's overall numbers are on the rise; had some earlier states voted today, she might not have done as well. (Or, considering the demographics, she might have; Nate Silver tried to run a retrogression, but there are just too many unknowns.) On the other hand, it's a closed primary in a state that loves Hillary.

Like you, I'm anxious to see how it will turn out. Keep your fingers crossed.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
No wonder my geometry students were so tired; they were out of shape!