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Bernardo de La Paz

Profile Information

Member since: Fri Jul 16, 2004, 11:36 PM
Number of posts: 34,749

About Me

Canadian who lived for many years in Northern California and left a bit of my heart there.

Journal Archives

Here's how I look for Covid-19 spikes, outbreaks, and blowups

I compare daily new cases (detected) and divide that by the number of active cases (detected), using data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ though other sites data can be used too.

1) Only active case cases can infect.
2) Detected cases / deaths are proxies for actual cases / deaths (some unknown multiplier).

This will find second waves in places that have a lot of recovered & dead cases.

On worldometers Yesterday button (for a complete days worth of data) I can sort the Active Cases column and then run down the New cases column looking for states/countries where the new cases is higher than nearby ones in the list. Then I can do the division on a few prominent states/countries found that way.

The US as a whole is running about 2% by that ratio, which is rather good and an indication that the PEOPLE are taking big precautions -- no help from the federal government.

When it gets to about 5%, that is a bit alarming. Texas has been running about 5%, and going by yesterday's figures, Louisiana is about 5%. Tennessee about 7%.

10% is a genuine outbreak. North Carolina, Mississippi, Wisconsin are about 9-10%. Minnesota is high, has been over 10% for a while.

Brazil is running about 15% and is blowing up on its first wave. Mexico is over 20%.

Ideally the data is smoothed by 3 day or 7 day running averages because there are jumps and dips that are from effects like weekend vs weekday.

Daily New Cases divided by Active Cases, as a percentage.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat May 23, 2020, 04:34 PM (18 replies)

USA doing kind of well now with isolating. Divide daily New cases by Active Cases. US is about 2%

Only the (detected) active cases can be considered infectious and they are a proxy for the actual active cases including undetected ones which might be 3 to 20 times detected. I think 5x is perhaps most likely. The doubling times associated with the rate of increase is only doubling of Active cases. So if a place has lots of recovered cases, the overall infected numbers may not climb steeply. Mexico has a lot of recovered cases, but I suspect their hidden undiscovered Active case load is higher by a rate greater than most places.

2% is quite good really. Places like Brazil (11%+), Mexico (25%), Chile (10%), India (9%) and Peru (7%) are blowing up. The compounding effect makes a 10% per day rate very alarming.

At 25%, the doubling time is about 3 days.

At 10%, the doubling time is about 7 days.

At 2%, the doubling time is about 35 days.

Not too bad, people of the USA and some governors. No thanks to Donald "Open her up" tRump.

Minnesota is 18% (doubling time 4 days). Wisconsin is 9%+. North Carolina is nearly 8%. Mississippi 7%. Texas is a little under 5%. Virginia 4%.
Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sun May 17, 2020, 12:08 PM (1 replies)

Ad idea: Eventually they will pile so much shit that the tRumps will be remembered for shit Nov,

... not their targets.

Eventually there will be such a desperate attempt to pile more and more unbelievable shit on top of Biden and VP nominee that by November they will be remembered as the shit disturbers and it won't stick to Biden. Which will frustrate them and motivate them to pile even more shit in a failing effort to distract voters from thinking about 100,000+ dead.

Democrats could even make ads with clips of tRump-Republicons says the stupidest things about Obama, Hillary, and Biden. A big steaming pile of clips. Intersperse with Obama in a tan suit, Obama dropping the mic, Hillary brushing lint in the hearing, Pelosi leaving the White House in her red coat, Biden with sunglasses in the hot car, etc.

It could be done with an accelerating tempo and end with a longish cut where somebody, maybe even Biden says something like: "Aren't yearning, aching, dying for competent focused fact-based leadership?"

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat May 16, 2020, 07:40 PM (0 replies)

Posters: Please TRIM and post REAL links, not Google links

Google does not need to know that a cluster of people (on DU) all accessed the same article, thereby establishing connections among those people that are then fed into the maw of their giant Big Data operation for profit on your reading habits.

By trimming off obvious stuff from the front and back of the link, I was able to go to the original article without going through Google.


I trimmed off "www.google.com/amp/s/" from the front and "amp/" from the back.

When the OP takes this simple step it means DU members don't have and it means that even those who don't care are protected.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Mon May 11, 2020, 01:11 PM (2 replies)

The high part is smashing the opposition from a great height. "high" does not mean soft

"high" means "with moral authority", "from a great height to obtain and exert great force", "with high power".

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sun May 10, 2020, 04:19 PM (2 replies)

He has it exactly right. That's not going low that's going high. Preserving Rule of Law

It's going high with an iron fist and smashing the orange mushroom's Gang to pieces. Smashing Greed Over People to pieces.

Aim to annihilate tRump's machine and his minions. Maybe than it will be a solid uncontested win. And annihilating the G.O.P. is still possible.

tRump needs to be made an example of to get Biden elected, after Biden is elected, and after Biden is inaugurated.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sun May 10, 2020, 04:17 PM (0 replies)

"Investors socializing their costs and privatizing their gains" is a phrase for the age. So real

That in a nutshell is how the gaping wealth and income disparity is created and widened.

They depend on so much infrastructure like public schools and subsidized airports and roads paid for by citizens through gas taxes.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat May 9, 2020, 02:33 PM (0 replies)

Pence dared not wear a mask because they want masks to be for "weirdos" to fit their plan

They won't be able to get back to the old normal if masks are the new normal. tRump and Greed Over People are so all-in on the economic plan to "re-open", so all-in that they can only believe one possibility: the country goes back and some people die. But they have magical thinking "Oh it won't be too many". They don't want to try to understand the math (which is not hard math), even though basic graphs tell you what you need to know.

No, they have to appear confident and "normal". It's part of their only hope, their Hail Mary pass for getting re-elected.

Stay focused and be careful.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Thu Apr 30, 2020, 10:02 PM (0 replies)
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