April 4, 2020

Deaths lag. Spreading has not stopped. Shutdown is not total. Many are not doing it.

US case load is slowing down a bit. Doubling every 3.5 days (guesstimate) instead of every 2.5 like it was for a week. But the death rate increase is not yet. It is still a straight line on logarithmic (log) charts, meaning continued exponential growth.

But deaths lag. It takes 1 to 14 days for symptoms to appear. Then after that it takes something like 10 days for the average death to occur (not sure of exact figure). Some people don't go easily and succumb after fighting it in ICU for 3 weeks.

I expect the peak infection rate in NYC in a day or two or three. (I don't really know, of course, ... nobody knows for sure). But the death rate will continue to grow for some time, piling up deaths. Peak in NY state might be several days later. Peak infection rate country-wide will be at least a week from now and perhaps two or more.

But the death rate peak will be 10 days or two weeks later.

Go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ and click the logarithmic option on the Italy Cases and Deaths charts. To my eye, the case rate began flattening around March 16. But the death rate didn't budge from a straight line until about March 29, which is almost 2 weeks later.

The doctors and epidemiologists know that's how it works. That's why flattening the curve is so important, because the peak approaches and comes down on areas like a hammer.

They told tRump, many times over.

But, because his re-election is involved, he refused to believe them and tried to tweet it away.

April 4, 2020

It's a mistake to call it tRump virus. Gives a false talking point for Rs to seize on.

It's not his virus. He didn't create it. If you call it his virus then all the oxygen gets sucked up defending an indefensible point.

But it absolutely is his Depression because it happened on his watch AND he was so proud of "his" economy and "his" stock market (artificially pumped up by tax-payer paid for corporate tax cuts that led to stock buybacks).

The virus kills. tRump makes it kill more and faster. tRump makes it the Trump Disaster and the Trump Depression.

April 3, 2020

Ya know that RW talking point: "more people die of flu"? Now this: (and next up, heart disease)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/01/coronavirus-kills-1-000-single-day-u-s-double-flu/5100905002/ (written April 1).

More than 1,000 in US die in a single day from coronavirus, doubling the worst daily death toll of the flu

Remember this thing is only beginning. People take up to three weeks to die a horrible death after first showing symptoms.


Expect it to happen tomorrow or the day after.

Today 1,300 deaths in USA as of this writing.

Deaths are doubling every 3 (three) days.

The peak is at least twelve days away, probably more. Assume slower doubling, every 4 days. That is three doubles or 8x the deaths. 1,300 x 8 = 10,400.

Over 10,000 deaths.

EVERY DAY for day on day, say a week at the peak.

April 1, 2020

Have to let that feeling go. Accept that you are powerless over some things and it is easier.

If you are doing the things that you can control or affect, then it is easier to let the powerless things go. You don't have to be active that instant, but if you have plans in motion or a routine or are planning, then you can accept powerlessness over some things more easily.

It's not easy, initially, but the more you practice it the easier it becomes.

Don't fight it in your mind. That is what makes the feeling of powerlessness overwhelming. Metaphorically in you mind open windows and let the breeze gently blow it away. When it comes back, as it will, say to yourself "oh, you again", and let it go. Then get back to either relaxing or doing or studying (the virus or something else you are interested in for the future). Being forward-looking helps.

Do what you can, accept what you can't do, and seek the wisdom to tell the two apart.