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Bernardo de La Paz

Profile Information

Member since: Fri Jul 16, 2004, 11:36 PM
Number of posts: 33,898

About Me

Canadian who lived for many years in Northern California and left a bit of my heart there.

Journal Archives

Yes, I have not thought the looming debacle would end the Repubs but I think they

... I think they will spend a longer time in the wilderness and have a tremendous amount of soul searching to do.

All their tropes and memes and slogans will have reduced power for years to come.

Chances are fairly good that if the Democrats govern well and navigate some tricky waters (climate change, China, fixing wealth & income disparity), then they are likely to have the Presidency for 12 or 16 years.

Perhaps the biggest agenda item will be to reform elections, campaigning and voting to greatly reduce trickery and gerrymandering and voter suppression. It can be done and must be done. That will go along way to tilt power away from Republicons and make the votes more reflective of true demographics.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat Jul 4, 2020, 05:37 PM (0 replies)

Wearing a mask is a medical statement. NOT wearing a mask is the political statement. . . . . nt

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat Jul 4, 2020, 03:08 PM (2 replies)

It's the ambiguous binary / non-binary nature of the word

A word like "defund" can mean either

1) Withdraw all funding of an institution, or

2) Withdraw some funding

My gut reaction on hearing "defund" used widely re police departments some weeks ago was it was to destroy, delete, and dead-end police departments.

And that is despite that I frequently encourage people to avoid binary all-or-nothing thinking. Hoist by my own petard. Or, more accurately, I am not immune to that which I warn against.

It was only a little bit later that someone made it clearer to me that it can mean reducing funding, say by 10%, not eliminating it entirely. A duh moment for me. There is merit, for example, to the idea of sending wellness professionals to do wellness checks instead of sending beefy police with guns and tasers and sunglasses and black boots and all.
Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat Jun 27, 2020, 08:22 AM (1 replies)

Threads for when posting links:

Trim a link, try it. If it works, trim more and try again. If it fails, go back the previous trim and post that.



Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Thu Jun 25, 2020, 10:53 AM (1 replies)

It is now Camp GUTanamo aka Low Barr Expanded Arrest Zone Center

Camp Gutanamo
Camp Buttanamo
Camp Rumptanamo

I wonder which one is favoured?

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Jun 5, 2020, 08:52 PM (0 replies)

This is the military signalling to tRump: We will not kill Americans for your campaign or after

Or at least I sure hope I'm right.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Jun 5, 2020, 08:50 PM (3 replies)

Amazing that 3 guys navigate to middle age and think they can get away with it. 3 reasons

Three reasons:

1) They believe in and depend on white privilege.

2) The system encourages that kind of behaviour, especially under tRump.

3) White privilege is a real thing and is harsh on people of colour and uplifting of white people.

But, all the same, they are still dead stupid.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Thu Jun 4, 2020, 02:31 PM (0 replies)

Here's how I look for Covid-19 spikes, outbreaks, and blowups

I compare daily new cases (detected) and divide that by the number of active cases (detected), using data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ though other sites data can be used too.

1) Only active case cases can infect.
2) Detected cases / deaths are proxies for actual cases / deaths (some unknown multiplier).

This will find second waves in places that have a lot of recovered & dead cases.

On worldometers Yesterday button (for a complete days worth of data) I can sort the Active Cases column and then run down the New cases column looking for states/countries where the new cases is higher than nearby ones in the list. Then I can do the division on a few prominent states/countries found that way.

The US as a whole is running about 2% by that ratio, which is rather good and an indication that the PEOPLE are taking big precautions -- no help from the federal government.

When it gets to about 5%, that is a bit alarming. Texas has been running about 5%, and going by yesterday's figures, Louisiana is about 5%. Tennessee about 7%.

10% is a genuine outbreak. North Carolina, Mississippi, Wisconsin are about 9-10%. Minnesota is high, has been over 10% for a while.

Brazil is running about 15% and is blowing up on its first wave. Mexico is over 20%.

Ideally the data is smoothed by 3 day or 7 day running averages because there are jumps and dips that are from effects like weekend vs weekday.

Daily New Cases divided by Active Cases, as a percentage.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat May 23, 2020, 04:34 PM (18 replies)

USA doing kind of well now with isolating. Divide daily New cases by Active Cases. US is about 2%

Only the (detected) active cases can be considered infectious and they are a proxy for the actual active cases including undetected ones which might be 3 to 20 times detected. I think 5x is perhaps most likely. The doubling times associated with the rate of increase is only doubling of Active cases. So if a place has lots of recovered cases, the overall infected numbers may not climb steeply. Mexico has a lot of recovered cases, but I suspect their hidden undiscovered Active case load is higher by a rate greater than most places.

2% is quite good really. Places like Brazil (11%+), Mexico (25%), Chile (10%), India (9%) and Peru (7%) are blowing up. The compounding effect makes a 10% per day rate very alarming.

At 25%, the doubling time is about 3 days.

At 10%, the doubling time is about 7 days.

At 2%, the doubling time is about 35 days.

Not too bad, people of the USA and some governors. No thanks to Donald "Open her up" tRump.

Minnesota is 18% (doubling time 4 days). Wisconsin is 9%+. North Carolina is nearly 8%. Mississippi 7%. Texas is a little under 5%. Virginia 4%.
Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sun May 17, 2020, 12:08 PM (1 replies)

Ad idea: Eventually they will pile so much shit that the tRumps will be remembered for shit Nov,

... not their targets.

Eventually there will be such a desperate attempt to pile more and more unbelievable shit on top of Biden and VP nominee that by November they will be remembered as the shit disturbers and it won't stick to Biden. Which will frustrate them and motivate them to pile even more shit in a failing effort to distract voters from thinking about 100,000+ dead.

Democrats could even make ads with clips of tRump-Republicons says the stupidest things about Obama, Hillary, and Biden. A big steaming pile of clips. Intersperse with Obama in a tan suit, Obama dropping the mic, Hillary brushing lint in the hearing, Pelosi leaving the White House in her red coat, Biden with sunglasses in the hot car, etc.

It could be done with an accelerating tempo and end with a longish cut where somebody, maybe even Biden says something like: "Aren't yearning, aching, dying for competent focused fact-based leadership?"

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat May 16, 2020, 07:40 PM (0 replies)
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