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BeyondGeography

BeyondGeography's Journal
BeyondGeography's Journal
September 25, 2019

Quinnipiac Nat'l Poll: EW 27 (+8), JB 25 (-7), BS 16. (+1), PB 7 (+4), KH 3 (-4)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads Democratic vote in latest QU polls

https://www.wtnh.com/news/politics/sen-elizabeth-warren-leads-democratic-vote-in-latest-qu-polls/

From Quinnipiac; Warren leads big on enthusiasm and M4A outpolls Obamacare fixes:

Warren is generating the most excitement among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters, who said 70 - 18 percent that they would be excited if she became the 2020 Democratic nominee. Biden and Sanders would also excite a majority of these voters, who say 56 - 35 percent that they would be excited about Biden and 55 - 38 percent that they would be excited about Sanders.

Half, or 50 percent, of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in major changes but would be more difficult to pass into law, while 42 percent want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in minor changes but would be easier to pass into law. Moreover, 49 percent of these voters think the best way to handle health care is to replace the current private health insurance system with a Medicare for All system, compared to 44 percent who say keeping the current private health insurance system and building on Obamacare is the best way to handle health care. Democratic and Democratic leaning voters also say 55 - 29 percent that they would trust a government health insurance program more than a private health insurance company when it comes to their health care.

"Dig a little deeper, and the reasons behind Warren's rise become more clear. She generates a lot of excitement as a potential nominee," adds Malloy. "On top of that, half of Democrats want a presidential candidate that supports big changes - even if it means things are harder along the way."

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3641
September 24, 2019

NY-19: U.S. Rep. Antonio Delgado calls for Trump's impeachment

WASHINGTON — U.S. Rep. Antonio Delgado, D-Rhinebeck, believes President Donald Trump should be impeached for his behavior toward Ukraine.

The first-term congressman announced his position Tuesday morning and joins a rapidly growing list of Democrats who support impeachment or an impeachment inquiry. At least eight other Democratic senators or representatives have publicly backed the idea in the last 24 hours. Many more have said they are weighing the proposition.

"The first responsibility of the president of the United States is to keep our country safe, but it has become clear that our president has placed his personal interests above the national security of our nation," Delgado said in a statement. "The president has admitted to soliciting the Ukrainian president to investigate a political rival. This, by itself, is an impeachable offense."

...Delgado's decision drew immediate criticism from national Republican groups who are widely attacking the wave of Democrats now urging impeachment. Delgado represents a district that is now rated a political tossup.

"In a district President Trump won by more than 6 points, Antonio Delgado's decision to pursue impeachment will be a political death sentence," said Michael McAdams, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Delgado-calls-for-impeaching-Trump-14463486.php


Good for Delgado. If you know that district he had his reasons for holding out.
September 24, 2019

Elizabeth Warren cites Susan Collins as her reason for a potential Maine campaign

BANGOR (BDN) -- U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren became the first Democratic presidential candidate to tease a Maine campaign on Tuesday, with a key staffer putting it among a handful of targeted states and citing the high-profile 2020 U.S. Senate race as a main reason.

That pledge came in a Tuesday email to supporters from Roger Lau, Warren’s campaign manager, which said the campaign would be hiring staff throughout the fall in Maine and other states with March nominating races.

Lau said the campaign is “targeting our resources” to help Democrats in other competitive races including one against U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who is a top target for national Democrats, saying the election is “about more than just beating” President Donald Trump.

“If we want to make big, structural change, we need to make sure Democrats control the U.S. House and Senate and win important gubernatorial and state legislative races across the country,” Lau said.

A Warren spokesman didn’t elaborate on when the campaign planned to hire in Maine or the specifics of how those plans would be integrated with the Senate race, but it amounted to the first Democratic campaign pledge to hire staffers here ahead of the March 3 primary.

...It would be rare for a senator to campaign directly against a colleague, but Warren wouldn’t be the first Democratic presidential hopeful to weigh in on Collins’ race. Buttigieg implored his Portland crowd to back Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon in her challenge against Collins. A Collins spokesman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Warren’s plans.

https://wgme.com/news/local/elizabeth-warren-cites-susan-collins-as-her-reason-for-a-potential-maine-campaign
September 24, 2019

Warren's first ads are out

Here are a couple:



September 23, 2019

Why Elizabeth Warren is a bigger Iowa front-runner than you think

(CNN)The headlines coming off a new poll in Iowa -- sponsored by CNN and the Des Moines Register -- largely focus on the fact that Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is now at the top tier of the 2020 field in the crucial Iowa caucuses. That notion drastically undersells how strong a position Warren is actually in.

Yes, Warren tops the field in the CNN-DMR poll with 22% support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 20% (the poll has a four-point margin of error, putting the two essentially in a tie). Warren and Biden are followed distantly by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 11%.
But that doesn't tell the whole story: The topline numbers are actually the least good thing for Warren in the poll.

Consider this:
* Warren gained 7 points from the June DMR/CNN poll and has almost tripled her support in the state from a December 2018 poll. Biden, meanwhile, has lost support in each of the four DMR/CNN polls between December 2018 and now. And Sanders dropped 5 points from just June until now.
* Her favorable numbers in the poll also make clear how much energy and passion is behind her candidacy presently. Three-quarters of those polled had a favorable view of her, including a whopping 44% who had a "very favorable" opinion. That compares very favorably to the 29% who view Biden very favorably and the 26% who feel that same way about Sanders.
* Warren is the first or second choice of 42% of those polled. That's well in front of Biden (30% first/second combined), Sanders (21%), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (18%) and California Sen. Kamala Harris (16%).

Any one of those three data points would suggest that this poll may have only caught the start of Warren's rise in Iowa. All three together suggest she is well positioned to take off like a rocket ship in the state. Not only does she already have a broad-base of support in the state (as evidence by the topline numbers) but she also has significant passion among those who are for her and remains well-liked -- and a possible voting option -- for those who say she is their second choice at the moment.

More at https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/23/politics/elizabeth-warren-iowa-joe-biden-2020/index.html

September 23, 2019

"Pete was fine. But you can't let yourself be out-energized by the grandma in the race."

Behind Elizabeth Warren’s surge: Emotional punch coupled with attention to detail



CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — One by one, each candidate who took the stage at an LGBTQ presidential candidate forum here got the same question and gave a nearly identical answer.
What would they do from Day 1 of their presidencies to address concerns of gay, lesbian and transgender communities, the moderators asked. Each of the first eight candidates responded with a list of positions that command widespread support among Democrats: lifting the Trump administration’s ban on transgender military service, backing passage of the Equality Act, appointing Justice Department officials committed to civil rights enforcement.

Then came Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s turn.

“I’m not going to tell you, I’m going to show you,” she said, as she pulled out a notecard and began to read: “Dana Martin, Jazzeline Ware, Ashanti Carmon …”

The auditorium fell silent as the litany of names continued. “... Bee Love Slater, Ja’Leyah-Jamar: Eighteen trans women of color who have been killed so far this year,” she said. “It is time for a president of the United States of America to say their names.”

The room broke into loud applause. Within moments, Warren’s hyper-efficient social media team had tweeted out the list to her followers. A short time later, when her time onstage ended after several more questions, the crowd — many of whom wore T-shirts and carried placards identifying themselves as supporters of Pete Buttigieg, the openly gay mayor of South Bend, Ind. — stood and cheered.

Afterward, it was clear the Massachusetts senator had added more converts to her growing list.

“Pete was fine,” one Buttigieg supporter was overheard saying to a friend. “But you can’t let yourself be out-energized by the grandma in the race.”

Warren has out-energized a lot of rivals over the last few months.

More at https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-09-22/elizabeth-warren-democratic-president-iowa-frontrunner


September 22, 2019

Inside Elizabeth Warren's Selfie Strategy



In late March, Jocelyn Roof, a sophomore at the University of Iowa, picked up a call from an unknown number and heard Senator Elizabeth Warren’s voice on the other end of the line. Warren asked her what got her “in this fight”—Roof said she was very concerned about income inequality—and thanked Roof for her $25 donation.

As soon as she got off the phone, Roof took a selfie of her shocked face. She posted it to Snapchat with the caption “MY WHOLE LIFE WAS MADE,” then screenshotted it and posted it to Twitter. Warren retweeted the selfie, with the comment “I’m so glad we got to talk!”

Before the call, Roof said she was undecided about who she would support in the Iowa caucuses. Afterwards, her enthusiasm for Warren “skyrocketed,” she says. “I couldn’t imagine voting for anyone else.” She started donating $5 to the campaign every month and buying snacks for volunteers at field offices. In the first three weeks of September, she registered more than 1,000 new voters on her University of Iowa campus, independent of the Warren campaign.

...Candidates snapping selfies with voters is not new. But Warren has elevated an old shtick into the centerpiece of her digital strategy. The Warren selfies are designed to be widely shared, and are particularly popular among younger voters who live most of their lives on social media. In interviews with supporters who waited in line to take selfies with Warren in Iowa on Thursday and Friday, most said they planned to post it on Instagram or Facebook, and a TIME review of their social media accounts suggests that they usually posted the photo almost immediately, where it quickly gained likes and comments.

...The selfie line also allows Warren a simple vehicle for hearing from voters. Each selfie takes roughly thirty seconds, just enough time for each supporter to deliver the Senator a quick message, but not enough time to get into a conversation. “The selfie line creates the space for listening to people’s stories,” says Senator Zach Wahl, a 28-year old Iowa State Senator who introduced Warren at her speech on Friday. “Iowa’s a relational state. It might go a little farther here than elsewhere.”

More at https://time.com/5683099/elizabeth-warren-selfies/
September 22, 2019

Elizabeth Warren's long path from Oklahoma to Harvard


Elizabeth (Herring) Warren in third grade.(via the Warren campaign)

WASHINGTON — When Elizabeth Warren first ran for the U.S. Senate from Massachusetts in 2012, her opponent mocked her as a Harvard elitist, addressing her in debates as “Professor,” dripping out the syllables so it sounded more like an epithet than an honorific. Warren won anyway, swamping the Republican incumbent, Scott Brown,who had campaigned in a pickup truck. Now, as she runs for president, Warren faces the same arduous political challenge — rushing to portray herself as a prairie populist from homespun roots in Oklahoma before opponents can paint her as an out-of-touch Ivy League academic.

On the campaign trail, Warren, 70, rarely mentions her two decades at Harvard Law School, where she was once one of the highest-paid professors. She instead highlights her upbringing in a state known for wide expanses and oil pump jacks, saying she dreamed of becoming a schoolteacher when she lined up her “dollies” and learned the lessons “my momma told me.”

...Warren’s past is more complex. She kept her Oklahoma ties through the decades, supporting family members there. Long before she ran for political office, she described her family’s struggles as the motivating force behind her extensive academic research into the causes and effects of bankruptcy.

...In high school she joined the Cygnets pep squad and drove a used MG roadster. She read morning announcements, beginning with a prayer, over the intercom. But she made her mark on the school debate team, winning a state championship. “Quietly, she could pretty well pull you apart,” said Joe Pryor, a member of the team.

But Warren felt constrained, both by her family’s economic insecurity and by low expectations of what she could achieve. “Boys were in sports and girls were in home economics learning how to cook for their future husbands,” Pryor said. “She certainly, at that time in her life, at 16 years old, was not comfortable with that world.”

...It was at Harvard where Warren, previously a Republican, became a Democrat and later an advisor to President Obama. She wrote bestselling books on personal finance, and consulted for corporate clients, earning millions of dollars. She also developed a certitude that is common among Harvard faculty, who often sit atop their fields and are quick to say so.

“You can’t be diffident and be at Harvard Law School,” said Noah Feldman, a Harvard law professor. “You have to come out swinging.”

...Like many Harvard law professors, Warren saw her path to influence through an appointed job in Washington. But her efforts to run a federal consumer agency that she had helped create for the Obama administration were thwarted in 2011 when Obama, facing industry opposition, declined to nominate her. She ran for Senate instead.

“It’s really very funny because the banks and Wall Street couldn’t stand the idea that she’d be there for a couple of years,” Fried said. “Now they’ve got her until the end of time.”

More at https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-09-21/from-oklahoma-to-harvard-elizabeth-warren-trod-a-tricky-path

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