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andym's JournalBig midterm lesson: Democrats will need an inspiring candidate to beat Trump in 2020
Big midterm lesson: Democrats will need an inspiring candidate to beat Trump in 2020
Matthew Rosza
Salon, 11/12/18
https://www.salon.com/2018/11/12/one-big-midterm-lesson-democrats-will-need-an-inspiring-presidential-candidate-to-beat-trump-in-202/
Here's the thing about President Donald Trump's supporters: They aren't a majority, and they aren't growing in number, but they are passionate and loyal. Most important of all, they show up on Election Day. The midterm elections are simply the latest occasion when this was demonstrated. True, Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives, but they didn't do so by the overwhelming margin that many had hoped to see -- and they actually lost seats in the Senate. Turnout in the 2018 midterms was the highest in any similar election since 1966, but that wasn't just Democrats eager to repudiate Trump. Republicans also turned out in unusually high numbers, considering that their party is currently in control of the White House. (Normally, the party that's out of power sees higher turnout in midterm elections). Trump convinced his voters that they needed to go to the polls to protect him, and they did so.
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It isn't that Trump is exceedingly popular, but rather that the people who support him will clearly stick with their man no matter what and make a point of showing that loyalty where it counts the most. For Democrats to effectively counter this, they have to make sure that their presidential nominee in 2020 — who will, inevitably, play a crucial role in determining the fate of the down-ballot Democrats running for Senate and House seats, as well as for governorships and state legislatures — is able to inspire turnout on an equally impressive scale.
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That said, Democrats can pick a nominee who has the best of what Biden can offer without being Biden himself. They need a nominee who, like Trump, appears to be a blunt truth-teller who speaks his mind and heart. (That isn't true of Trump, of course, but it is widely perceived as being true). The candidate must be able to advocate for progressive policies on issues like health care, environmental protection, the economy and protecting minorities in a way that enthuses the Democratic base without alienating independents and moderates. He or she must be able to appeal to the voters in the so-called flyover states, either because they hail from them -- like Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota or Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana -- or because they appeal to them naturally, like Biden himself.
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Finally, the candidate must hold Trump's feet to the fire on the issues where he is weakest — such as his unethical conduct in office, his inflammatory rhetoric, his policies that persecute the poor and various racial and religious minority groups — without making it seem like all they have to offer is the benefit of not being Trump.
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This is a balanced article, explains why it will be necessary to have someone who inspires folks. I think it's obvious that inspirational ability should extend from as much of the very diverse Democratic base as possible to even people with differing political opinions.
Beto may be the next President of the United States
He has risen to national prominence in this election where he was the decided underdog. and has the change, hope and unifying message like Obama. Most importantly, he inspires people-- which is what this country needs now.
Grassley grants Kavanaugh accuser extension on how to proceed on possible testimony
Source: Reuters
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee Chuck Grassley granted a deadline extension to a woman accusing Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault to decide if and how she will testify, the Republican said on Twitter.
The Senate Judiciary Committee had delayed a vote on Kavanaugh's confirmation after California professor Christine Blasey Ford's allegations emerged last week, and her lawyers and committee staff were negotiating the conditions of her testimony.
"Judge Kavanaugh I just granted another extension to Dr. Ford to decide if she wants to proceed (with) the statement she made last week to testify to the Senate," Grassley wrote on Twitter. "She should decide so we can move on. I want to hear her. I hope you understand. It's not my normal approach to be indecisive."
Grassley did not say if a new deadline has been set.
Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-set-monday-vote-kavanaugh-no-deal-hearing-010138951.html#mycomments
Looks like Sen. Grassley is trying to show some respect to Dr. Ford. The cynical interpretation is that they don't have the votes to confirm. We shall see.
Article is written by Doina Chiacu and Richard Cowan
The Democratic party since FDR has been the part of the common man/woman
But that theme has receded since Reagan. It's still there, but in the background. The Republicans' focus on being the party of "freedom" has caused a lot of mischief. Americans need to know that the Democratic Party is with them in their daily struggles, that it has their backs first and foremost. While the GOP is focused on freedom abstractly, Democrats should be countering that we really are the party of freedom for ALL (why Democrats support civil rights for everyone so strongly) and are the real party of opportunity. More focus on how Democratic policies can help SMALL business and individuals succeed in America. That's why policies such as affordable health care and education are so important, as well as consumer protection and the small business administration (which should be expanded). More focus on Democrats being more truthful than Republicans-- How powerful billionaires and corporations are subverting America though unchecked misleading marketing and propaganda. We need to counteract the GOP theme that government is evil-- rather that the government is us working together to potentially achieve great things like curing diseases or reaching the moon.
While DUers know these things as second nature, I find that the message of the common man has faded when talking to those not intensely political. The current debates about socialism and moderation are distractions that further weaken the message.
A new motto for Democrats: "The party of opportunity that has your back."
Trying to come up an elevator pitch that actually summarizes the best of the Democratic Party.
The problem is that the Democratic Party has such a large tent that there are so many ideas that underlie the Party's positions, that it's difficult to construct effective summaries.
"The party of opportunity that has your back." or
"The party of opportunity and fairness that has your back."
And then expand on what is meant-- like in an elevator pitch:
1) High paying jobs through helping small business.
2) Better future for your children by making education affordable.
3) Making sure health care affordable for everyone, (government based so you can explore better job opportunities).
4) Fairness: Civil rights for everyone.
5) Fair and humane immigration policies.
6) Policies based on science and common sense not superstition.
Something about honesty too.
What are your ideas for a motto/slogan/elevator pitch?
#OMAGA Obama Made America Great Again
Use it on Twitter and Instagram. Make it go viral.
If Trump sees it he will not be pleased.
Well Roe V Wade may finally be history
And that will make Trump a folk hero for evangelicals for a generation. A few thousand voters in the rust belt are going to have changed American history for a generation-- how ironic.
Monsters are Due on Maple Street
It's fairly easy to cause sow division among diverse Democrats by appealing to long-held grudges, unfounded criticism, suspicions, tribalism, and unbending loyalty. See Rod Serling's "Monsters are Due on Maple Street" for how turning on the lights in a few houses during a blackout soon has neighbors going to war with each other. The Russians and GOP operatives recognize how easy it is to sow discord, using their enemies as unwitting agents, and then let the consequences run their course, as they did during the last election. We must be vigilant, if we want a blue wave in the fall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Monsters_Are_Due_on_Maple_Street
Comey as the naive idealist
Comey has always come across as a naive idealist to me-- a boy scout who wants to do right, but not fully equipped for political reality in the USA of the 2010's. From his comments on Hillary Clinton in July 2016 as "extremely careless" to his letter to Congress two weeks before the election (because he promised to keep Congress informed, but didn't understand the obvious political ramifications), to his inability to deal with an egotist like Trump who was clearly afraid of an honest man like Comey, the evidence is clear. Comey understood that he was dealing with key, sensitive situations, but lacked the political insight to prevent events from spinning out of control.
I think an argument can be made that Comey's actions (and the FBI investigations) so impacted Hillary Clinton, that she not only lost the election (popular vote notwithstanding), but her reputation with the American people still has not recovered (her favorability was mired in the 30's % even a year after the election in December 2017)-- which is incredible given that only 5 years ago she was the most popular political figure in the USA at over 60% approval. I doubt that Comey in any way intended this consequence. But the result was not only losing a chance for a historical Presidency, but instead we have the embarrassment of Trump.
The irony is that Trump's removal of Comey helped initiate the Mueller investigation, which at a minimum may help impede the damage Trump is doing to the American body politic for the time being.
It's not so much what Democrats have done wrong, but what the GOP has done right
The Democratic Party has been on a losing arc since 2010, with the exception of President Obama's re-election. With a huge majority in the House, a small majority in the Senate and 2/3 of state houses in GOP control, things really have changed since 2008, when things were polarized in the Democratic Party's favor. Why?
It's not so much that Democrats have made mistakes, but that the GOP has been proactive.
Why increasing influence of Fox news have pushed the country rightwards:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016192851
"A stunning new study shows that Fox News is more powerful than we ever imagined"
GOP gained over a 6% voter advantage attributable to Fox in 2008...
Fox's influence reinforces GOP/conservative influence from talk radio and conservative internet sites.
Basic point, is that GOP is propagandizing their anti-government beliefs far better than Democrats or even Democratic Socialists like Bernie are promoting their pro-government solutions, which will eventually doom progressive legislation.
Much much better organization at the local level, due to
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016164776
"Democrats are losing to Republicans at the state level, and badly. Here's why."
Basically, the Koch brother's organizations are executing a master plan to gain GOP dominance
"THE RIGHT-WING NETWORKS ARE A WELL-OILED MACHINE: ALEC PUSHES PROPOSALS WITHIN STATE LEGISLATURES; THE STATE POLICY NETWORK BUILDS THE INTELLECTUAL AND POLICY CASE FOR THOSE BILLS; AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY THEN GENERATES OUTSIDE POLITICAL PRESSURE, THROUGH ADS AND GRASSROOTS ORGANIZING "
A plan to get control in 2010 in order gerrymander election districts for a generation.
(see post just above for how) and http://theweek.com/articles/625095/how-rig-elections-legal-way
"In the 2010 election cycle, the Republican Party took gerrymandering to a new level by creating a national redistricting strategy. The GOP's plan, which they called REDMAP, was to "keep or win Republican control of state legislatures with the largest impact on congressional redistricting..." "After pouring $30 million into state legislature races — a huge sum for down-ballot fights — the Republicans gained a record 680 state seats. That gave them total control of 25 state legislatures, which between them oversaw the redistricting process for 40 percent of congressional House of Representatives seats."
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141806934
"AP analysis shows how gerrymandering benefited GOP in 2016"
Resulting in this problem:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016183787
Two-thirds of Americans think that the Democratic Party is out of touch with the country
Why? See all the points above.
Disbelieve this kind of poll at one's own peril.
So what's the solution? An organized effort to promote Democratic ideas, a combination of progressive and moderate ideas that appeal to people's sense of how the country might be better than it is. The first point is to convince people the federal government can be benevolent and extremely capable, sometimes even more capable than private enterprise. For example, combining helping people create and grow small businesses while providing a means to affordable universal health care.
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