Bernie Sanders is fairly well positioned to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, so much of Clinton’s hopes to bury him early rests on the southern-heavy Super Tuesday states. The strategy did not work in 2008 against Obama, and Bernie has potential to replicate that comeback in 2016

8 years ago, Hillary Clinton maintained a 20+ point lead in the national polls over Barack Obama until the first states started voting. Once Obama won in Iowa (Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, delegates 16:14:15), everything started to change. It’s why Nate Silver made a post on Kos where he declared National Polls Don’t Matter. Clinton then won in New Hampshire, stalling the comeback, then they split Nevada and South Carolina before Obama continued his climb. He didn’t overtake Clinton until the middle of February, 6 weeks after he won the Iowa Caucuses. Here is a handy interactive poll from Real Clear Politics to illustrate.

In October 2007, Clinton had an “insurmountable” 24 point lead over Barack Obama with African Americans in South Carolina. After Obama took Iowa, those poll results reversed and he gained a 59-31% advantage with the AA community, changing the fortunes of that state and setting the stage for taking other minority heavy Southern states.

Now, there is no doubt that Clinton is currently well ahead with African Americans in the South at this point, and it will be quite a challenge for Bernie Sanders to come back and get a majority vote with these constituents, inroads are already being made. In the latest ABC Poll, Bernie’s support among People of Color doubled from 15% in October to 31% in November, a gain of 16 points. Note Bernie also gained with every group in that poll except people over 50.