West Long Branch, NJ – More Americans are struggling economically than felt that way at the prior midterm elections four years ago. Most say President Joe Biden has not been paying attention to their most important concerns as inflation continues to be the top issue in this cycle, according to the latest national Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Republicans continue to hold a slight edge in preference for congressional control.

Republicans maintain a slight edge in preference for party control of Congress. Currently, 40% of Americans say they want the GOP in charge and another 9% have no initial preference but lean toward Republican control. Democratic control is preferred by 35% with another 10% leaning toward the Democrats. Last month, 47% preferred or leaned toward the GOP and 44% favored the Democrats.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_102022.pdf/

America’s Issue Priorities

Issue Oct Sept
Inflation 46% 37%
Elections and Voting 38% 37%
Crime 37% 34%
Immigration 34% 30%
Jobs/Unemployment 32% 30%
Abortion 30% 31%
Racial Inequality 25% 27%
Gun Control 25% 27%
Climate Change 23% 24%

In the 5 months since we last handicapped the nation’s state legislative chambers, a lot has happened in the political universe.

What seemed like a massing Republican wave, fed by widespread disenchantment with President Joe Biden, now seems like a more mixed environment. While the historical patterns continue to favor the out-of-power party — in this case the GOP — that tendency is now somewhat balanced by Democratic dissatisfaction with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the abortion decision Roe vs. Wade, as well as the choices by Republican primary voters to choose strong supporters of former President Donald Trump in many statewide races, a development that could turn off independents and moderate Republicans and reverberate down to legislative contests.

Given the changes in the political environment — which we had noted in our initial handicapping as possibilities for aiding Democrats — we are shifting our ratings for 7 chambers. In what we expect to be our final pre-election handicapping of the nation’s legislatures, we are moving 5 chambers in the Democrats’ direction, while 2 move in the Republicans’ direction.

Democratic chances have improved in both chambers in Arizona, as well as the Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania Houses, although only the Arizona and Michigan Senates are Toss-ups (the Republicans are favored in the others). Meanwhile, Republican chances have improved in both chambers in Nevada, with the Senate becoming a Toss-up and the Democrats retaining an edge in the House.

ALASKA

Senate: Likely R
House: Leans R

ARIZONA

Senate: Likely R to Toss-up
House: Likely R to Leans R

COLORADO

Senate: Leans D
House: Likely D

MAINE

Senate: Toss-up
House: Toss-up

MICHIGAN

Senate: Toss-up
House: Leans R to Toss-up

MINNESOTA

Senate: Leans R
House: Toss-up

NEVADA

Senate: Leans D to Toss-up
Assembly: Likely D to Leans D

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Senate: Likely R
House: Likely R to Leans R

OREGON

Senate: Leans D
House: Likely D

PENNSYLVANIA

Senate: Likely R
House: Likely R to Leans R

Wes Moore is on the rise — and some of the Democrat’s close allies already have their sights on more than just the Maryland governor’s mansion.

Moore is poised to become just the third elected Black governor in U.S. history if he holds onto a wide polling lead in Maryland. He may well be the nation’s only Black chief executive in the country next year.

Accomplishing that feat comes with lofty expectations from a Democratic Party hungry for a new generation of leaders. Moore would also enter the governorship under intense scrutiny: a political neophyte promising to usher in an era of transformation in his first elected gig.

If such a high-pressure debut seems like cause for caution, his supporters aren’t tempering their enthusiasm.

Moore has racked up a slew of endorsements, including a rare political nod from Oprah Winfrey. Democratic luminaries are drawn to the energy and charisma he displays on the trail running for the state’s open governorship.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/19/wes-moore-maryland-governor-00062510

A coalition of judicial advocacy and watchdog groups are calling on Congress to establish greater disclosure requirements for the spouses of federal judges.

In a letter sent to lawmakers on Capitol Hill this week, the groups cite POLITICO’s report on potential conflicts posed by the professional work of Supreme Court justice’s spouses and the inadequacy of disclosures around that work.

The four organizations — Fix the Court, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, the Free Law Project and the Project On Government Oversight — argue that language should be inserted into existing ethics law that would apply to federal judges whose spouses render “legal services; strategic or legal advice related to litigation, lobbying, or business activities; lobbying or public relations services; or testimony as an expert witness.”

If the value of the service or bonus for that service is greater than $5,000, they must disclose the payer and compensation, states the draft language for legislation.

HORSHAM, Pa. — Pennsylvania lawmaker Todd Stephens is the kind of Republican who has always counted on support from Democrats to help win his seat in the statehouse.

But as he campaigns house to house in the Philadelphia suburb that he’s represented for more than a decade, one of the state’s last remaining Republicans who favors abortion rights is finding that his party’s record often looms larger than his own.

When doors open, he touts his votes against his colleagues’ attempts to restrict abortion and reminds constituents that the Democratic governor invited him to speak at an event on reproductive health this past summer. When no one answers, he hangs a leaflet around the doorknob that lists one of his top priorities as “ensuring women make their own healthcare decisions.”

That the Pennsylvania Democratic Party’s bid to unseat Stephens, a 12-year incumbent in a Philadelphia suburb, has focused squarely on abortion illustrates just how much the fall of Roe has upended political conventions.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/20/republicans-who-support-abortion-rights-are-fighting-for-their-political-future-00062625

Just weeks before the midterms, nearly one in four Latinos still didn't know how they'd vote, according to the latest Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.

Why it matters: The findings underscore Latinos' collective hold on the American swing vote — and Democrats' relatively modest advantage is an ominous sign for those who fear a further erosion of their party's support among this large, diverse ethnic group.

Inflation and crime remained by far the biggest worries for survey respondents. Abortion ranked significantly lower, and has not climbed since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.

But, but, but: Democrats have some targeted advantages. Respondents support President Biden's student loan forgiveness and the Inflation Reduction Act by about 2-to-1 margins.

How Hispanic/Latino Americans say they would vote in the 2022 elections
Survey of 1,005 U.S. Hispanic/Latino adults conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 8, 2022

Democratic candidate 33%
Republican candidate 18
Don’t know 23
Would not vote 17
Independent / other candidate 7
Data: Ipsos; Note: Data rounded to nearest whole

Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz has shrugged off months of Democratic attacks that he's a carpetbagging out-of-towner by pointing to the house he and his wife bought last December in the well-to-do Philadelphia suburb of Bryn Athyn.

"I’m proud to own property in Pennsylvania," he has said on the trail when asked about the needling from his opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, over his longtime residency in New Jersey, where he lived before becoming a candidate.

The fine print of the deed to Oz's $3.1 million residence in Bryn Athyn shows a wrinkle, though -- one that an outside expert called "unheard of": If Oz ever needs to sell his new home, then the last owner gets right of first refusal to buy it back.

Half a dozen estate law experts told ABC News that the provision between Oz and the Academy of the New Church, which sold him the residence, was unusual for a residential transaction.

Fundraising by former President Donald Trump’s primary political group briefly quadrupled for a few days after the FBI searched his South Florida property in August. But the group also reported a significant increase in fundraising expenses during the third quarter, according to a POLITICO analysis of new campaign finance filings.

The data provides further evidence of how law enforcement’s decision to seize classified documents from Trump’s resort energized the former president’s base. And it shows how the former president’s political operation is churning through the GOP’s small-donor pool at an accelerating pace as a potential comeback campaign draws near.

The Save America Joint Fundraising Committee reported just over $24 million raised in the third quarter of 2022, up from $17 million in the second quarter. Nearly 20 percent of the group’s third-quarter fundraising came in the week after the Aug. 8 FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. That includes $2.2 million that came in on Aug. 9 and 10 alone, according to a new campaign finance report from WinRed, the online fundraising conduit used by Save America and numerous other Republican groups.

Previous reporting indicated that Save America received a surge in donations in August, but the specific amount was unknown.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/19/trumps-mar-a-lago-fundraising-boost-came-with-big-costs-00062508