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Mon Jan 13, 2020, 04:27 PM

Amy is doing better then people think

I'm sure we all had a hope that Amy would move more dramatically in recent polling. But I am in no way discouraged.
People may accuse me of squinting at the polls but there are some things very clear.
Buttigieg is fading, Not only in raw numbers but his favorable and electable numbers also.
Warren is static and on the edge.
Biden is static but with increasing unfavorable numbers.
Sanders is rising in everything but electable.
Klobuchar is slowly gaining and her crosstabs are improving much faster then her toplines.

With both Warren and Buttigieg on the cusp of 15% things are very interesting.

First Bernie. Bernie will be getting all of Yang's support while that may be only three or four percent it is enough to help. in All of the places Warren doesn't cross 15% Bernie will get at least half of her support. Those two together are probably enough to get Bernie the Win with his loyal base underlying it all.

Biden will pick up some support enough to make sure he is safely through but the real question is just how much. But looking at the movement and his crosstab decline a lot less then people expect.

So the real question is where the Buttigieg and the other half of the Warren support goes if they falter just a little. Given what happened in the last debate that is entirely possible after the coming one. So wit the tiff between Warren and Buttigieg their supporters are not likely to go to the other. Amy is well positioned to pick up the lions share.

What also will be interesting is the narrative that will come if that proves correct. Iowa will be reporting three sets of numbers. The first read raw vote, then second read raw vote after realignment, and the Delegate equivalent. If as I expect Amy is in fifth at the first and second or third at the second. The narrative when the Buttigieg and Warren voters move will that she can unite the two wings.

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