Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum**BREAKING IPSOS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY POLL** Biden 24% Sanders 15% Mayor Pete 7%
Biden
24%
Sanders
15%
Buttigieg
7%
Harris
6%
O'Rourke
6%
Warren
5%
Booker
3%
Castro
1%
Klobuchar
1%
Gillibrand
1%
Hickenlooper
1%
Bullock
1%
Yang
1%
Ryan
1%
Gabbard
0%
Inslee
0%
Delaney
0%
Williamson
0%
Messam
0%
Swalwell
0%
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/11/9830/9740/2019%20Reuters%20Democratic%20Primary%20Horserace%2004%2023%202019.pdf
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)...winning is the top priority.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,912 posts)an option.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)Means to some that 24% have decided to go with a winner, while 76% are unsure or have decided to pick a loser not named Joe Biden.
Joe Biden, the electable candidate who is electable because he is Joe Biden. He needs no platform or personal qualifications because he is electable. He is electable because he has all the personal qualifications the electorate is looking for.
I have nothing against Biden, but the argument from electability is silly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)If I liked a primary candidate but was convinced he or she was unelectable in the general election I would not vote for him or her.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)It exists only in the mind of some voters as a simulation of what will be in the the mind of other voters 17 months from now. Most people who are doing this are really are using it as a standin for the "most establishment" or "best resume" candidate.
So most of those people end up supporting Biden, as if he were the obvious choice and no other support needs to be provided. I think that's a dangerous way to pick a candidate, and history shows lots of "unelectable" winners along with "electable" losers.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)We used to balance the ticket...and look at electability.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)But many times unelectable candidates win and electable candidates lose. 2016 being only the most recent example.
But fine, you can keep going with "electability." Everybody makes their own choices no matter how much people argue it could be a mistake.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,092 posts)He wasn't considered to have "electability" nationwide until he did.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)who is unlikely to win or not voting at all -- both the same in effect -- is highly immoral. Voting doesn't create power, it decides who WILL have that power, and our next president will be either the Democratic or the Republican nominee. There is no other choice.
Unfortunately, everyone else does also.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
susanna
(5,231 posts)Great quote, too. Spells it all out.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)And the way 1984 played out I don't believe any of the other primary candidates would have fared much better.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Chin music
(23,002 posts)As good as any other. I still have bumper stickers. They were green and white. Mondale/Ferraro.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)I was taken aback by the fact that every single one of them was negative. Every ad attacked Reagan and not one was spent going into detail about why Mondale would have made a good president.
I'm sure Mondale would have been screwed no matter what he did but that all that negativity definitely couldn't have helped him.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Chin music
(23,002 posts)Reagan was easy to attack. He's the grandaddy of trickle down and iran contra.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)...no one is saying that Biden is the ONLY electable Democrat, he's the most electable. If you like a certain candidate and believe he or she has a pathway to beating Trump, even though it is less sure than Biden, you may make that choice.
You see, unlike many, I really do think Trump is America's Hitler. I really do believe if Trump is re-elected and has 4 additional years as a lame duck President with a fresh, new, second term, America is doomed. Some people don't have that feeling. They think if Trump wins a second term we can pick up the pieces in 2024. Not me. So, I think 3 or 4 of our candidates can beat Trump. But Biden's electability in the key swing states makes him the most electable.
People don't vote for President in the General Election on issues (at least not the 10% of the electorate that determines the outcome), they vote on feelings. Biden makes this 10% feel comfortable in the key states we need to win (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania).
So, to sum up what I'm saying, Biden is not the only electable Democrat, he's the most electable Democrat.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)We have exactly one way of scientifically judging that, which is head to head polling (which itself is not that useful this early) and in those polls Sanders is +10 over Trump and Biden is +7.
So where does more electable come from?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
louis c
(8,652 posts)Every poll, state or national, that matches the Democratic Candidates against Trump, Biden does best. EVERY ONE.
That's what it's based on:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,207 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)I rechecked and I was looking at 2016 numbers. Apologies for that.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)Wall and take Trumps only path to victory away.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)It's just an electability argument again. I support Uncle Joe because he can get blue collar voters in 4 states because they love my Uncle Joe.
No real reason given, no policies, no platforms, no track record of success(just experience itself), no acknowledgement of potential vulnerabilities, no assessment of how he will handle attacks that sunk him before. It's just I support him because he can win.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)a fan girl/boy of any candidate. I can't imagine being totally in the tank for someone that you support every word without exercising judgement or discernment.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)Absolute number one reason... hes an honorable man that will do the right thing for the country.
2. Yes, well known. Leaders around the world are begging him To run
3. Years of experience during Obama years make him the most suitable to quickly get our country back on track
4 well liked by his colleagues. Will be able to form solid coalitions within the party to move the country forward
5. Voting record has moved with the times.. more to the left of center
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
blue-wave
(4,317 posts)Joe can run circles around republicons on the issues and have their heads spinning. Anyone on this board knows this.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
samnsara
(17,570 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)...The polls mean something to me. I know, everyone points to 2016. But, the polls had Hillary winning by 3 points, even after the Comey letter. She won by 2. The votes weren't distributed in the most advantageous way for her, but the national polls were off by a point.
Right now, Biden leads Trump in every swing state, and some by double digits. That means something to me. In my opinion, the only way Biden loses to Trump is if Democrats beat him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)At this point in 2015, Trump wasn't even an option.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)...how's that vetting working out for your candidate?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)Biden will announce and get a lot of attention for a week or two. After that, Pete will need to make his next move or he really will be flavor of the month.
I'm perfectly fine with being wrong. I'm used to it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,729 posts)Cant wait to donate!!!
That even rhymes.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bearsfootball516
(6,369 posts)The lights are pretty much out for those bottom five.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,788 posts)Gabbard is an outlier in politics in general and is NOT representative of the great majority of Democrats. Let her stay in Hawaii.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stonecutter357
(12,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Funtatlaguy
(10,856 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NewJeffCT
(56,827 posts)but, i thought Klobuchar would have been a few points higher - 3/4%
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)That is just my opinion. I would have loved to see Julian take on Cruz, but he did not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)why not a woman?!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lulu KC
(2,547 posts)Unbelievable. A word I need to strike from my vocabulary as I'm forced to believe ridiculous truths daily.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)she was denied her office and the country was deprived of its leader.
i am not ready to concede that it cannot happen again.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)WI, MI, possibly others.
of course i can't prove it but i still believe it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
gldstwmn
(4,575 posts)Pooing irregularities in the 2004 election to being able to clearly see how votes could have been siphoned off in 2016?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
barbtries
(28,702 posts)since i believe that both of gw's wins were stolen. Ohio in 2004.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
gldstwmn
(4,575 posts)There were a lot of folks around here who wouldn't dare go there though.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Politicub
(12,163 posts)I have a top-four list for who I would like to see win the primary, but I don't rank them by any order. My list is:
Warren
Harris
Biden
Buttigieg
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)Warren
Inslee
Harris
and i like almost every one of the others, except:
sanders
gillibrand
gabbard
yang
schultz! fucker should go away
that spiritualist or whatever she is. Marianne something.
virtually no familiarity with hickenlooper (sic?) and there are probably others i can't recall. I've given donations to Klobuchar, Harris, Warren, Booker, Swalwell, Castro, and probably others. Just to get them to the debates. But with Warren's courage coming out for impeachment she became my current favorite.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,151 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)Klobucher helps in the mid-west and has a moderate approach to politics that compliments Biden. Harris energizes the base as a highly qualified minority woman and brings her prosecutorial experience to a Biden-Harris ticket.
If Biden doesn't win the nomination, he will not appear on a ticket as the VP candidate.
But Warren just turns people off, whether they agree with her or not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,151 posts)quite put my finger on how a highly intelligent, determined, woman with an amazing ability to get an immediate grasp on policy issues, could "turn people off".
Democrats must ask Democrats to "wake up".
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)...In 2024 we can argue over everything else. But in this election, we have to win. If I'm convinced the swing voters that will determine the outcome in the General Election can't support a Democrat if the candidate has a size 8 shoe, I'm looking for a size 9 candidate.
I'm sorry. We can't take a chance of losing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,151 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Celerity
(42,666 posts)just a female version.
Just my humble opinion.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)broad brush statements like that are useless.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)She's not catching on. She can't win, she's tough to listen to, her policies are for the 10% who get into the weeds. The electorate voted for a guy who has never read a policy, never mind written one, over a woman who had a policy about everything.
Please, let's be realistic. Let's see how we can get that 7% to 10% of the electorate in the general election that votes on feelings. I don't like it any more than you do, but how many times to we have to learn a lesson the hard way?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)I'll vote for that person. before i've seen a single debate, i'll choose my candidate based on how closely their policies and values align with my own.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)you can't know that, it's too soon to know that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
louis c
(8,652 posts)...that number speaks volumes.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dubyadiprecession
(5,620 posts)Massachusetts is not a swing state.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)in fact i would expect most any of the male candidates to choose a woman. but, maybe not. maybe we end up with 2 white men again, because politicians and their advisors think they really know the electorate so well and in an abundance of caution they forego progress because they decide they might lose otherwise.
i really wish we could adopt the British model of elections. 6 weeks. you can campaign for 6 weeks, the rest of the time you govern. wouldn't that be heavenly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,151 posts)period, only to suffer a devastating, humiliating defeat.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)to people, the environment, social and constitutional norms. i mean really if this guy shouldn't be impeached who should? and i'm not saying rush to trial, i'm saying start the impeachment hearings. make them public. shame the republicans who have refused to do their part and uphold the oaths they took.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,151 posts)slap on an "impeachment" tag as they proceed, and collect more and more damaging information.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bearsfootball516
(6,369 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NewJeffCT
(56,827 posts)but, I think the recent polls are mostly due to name recognition with Bernie and Biden.
Mayor Pete and O'Rourke announced more recently so their initial "bump" hasn't worn off yet, like it has for Warren, Harris, etc.
I'm hoping by the fall, things will have changed a bit
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
barbtries
(28,702 posts)who have an actual bet that a woman will not be the nominee. first one said this country will not elect a woman. i said, this country was never going to elect a black man in my lifetime. they made the bet. last night the 2nd told me "i'm going to owe "first" $100."
we all know that our rightful president is not the one in the WH and that she is a woman. so why not?!
A really good interview Lawrence did with Tony Schwartz. He's analyzed what's going on brilliantly I think. I've boiled it down in my mind to "white panic" but he discusses it more in depth regarding the death throes of the patriarchy. Upshot I got is there's still much pain ahead, but these are evolutionary pains and we stand a chance of emerging on the other side of this, better, more equal, more just.
it's so good that I'm going to go find a youtube link.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)"Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be a woman?"
It was trading at almost 50/50, which I thought was ridiculous. It was an overreaction to Kamala Harris' poll numbers at that time.
The market was 30% a few days ago. I just checked after seeing your post and now it's down to 27%.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2902/Will-the-2020-Democratic-nominee-for-president-be-a-woman
My Las Vegas reputation was that I didn't always win but I almost always had the number move in my favor. That's a very comforting feeling because it is difficult to have any regrets when you beat the price. Just sit back and see how it plays out. Then beat the price again tomorrow.
***
Hillary would have won handily in 2008. We really screwed up by not nominating her when the situational wind would have been at her back. Then we brilliantly wonder what the heck happened when we nominate her in the much more difficult situational terrain of 2016 after holding the White House two consecutive terms. The more charismatic Obama would have had far less difficulty in that scenario. Now if we nominate a female against an incumbent it will be almost unfair to the gender. A loss is quite possible yet the gender would receive too much blame for the defeat while the uphill situation would be ignored.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
barbtries
(28,702 posts)i blame the patriarchy and the culture. for chrissakes it's the 21st century. it's so discouraging to feel as if we're being pushed backward. it does not have to be this way.
i don't play predictit and haven't much of a clue what you're talking about, but okay. play no all day long. i hope you end up wrong in the end.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NewJeffCT
(56,827 posts)I would have said that if the country elected a black man, it would be a Republican black man first (i.e. Colin Powell)
And, I would have also said that if we elected a woman, it would be a Republican woman first (a la Tory Thatcher in the UK)
Obama destroyed that thinking for me, so I don't have any guesses on when a woman can get elected.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
barbtries
(28,702 posts)we're behind the world in this regard. among others. sigh
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NewJeffCT
(56,827 posts)for my then 13 year old daughter - If Clinton had become president, she would have grown up with the previous 8 years of a black man and then at least 4 years of a woman as president. She would have known mostly non-white men as president.
But, France still has not had a woman as president, nor Italy a woman as prime minister. Japan and a few others are still behind with us in not having been led by a woman
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,280 posts)Everybody's already heard of Biden and Bernie. Buttigieg's name is becoming more recognized because (a) it's an unusual name, and (b) he's doing a brilliant job of getting himself on TV everywhere, all the time. He seems to have a great instinct for how to use the media. But the field is so crowded that it's still hard for lesser-known candidates to become known, which is what they need right now.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueFlorida
(1,532 posts)Brace for attacks on Biden, Buttigieg and Warren any second.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,729 posts)But some of them may suffer from the backlash that Gillibrand is discussing on the View today.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
louis c
(8,652 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
angrychair
(8,593 posts)His positions on student loan debt, healthcare and institutional racism seems lacking.
Dont currently have a backup but Warren and potentially Biden are in the running. (Also people I'd consider good VPs for Senator Harris)
That said, in order to maintain my own intellectual honesty, a poll 18 months out is all but meaningless.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)whether your candidate is on top, in the middle, or languishing a bit...there's about ten different things that are going to happen between now and the first votes that are going to rearrange at least a couple of people for good or for ill.
Who that will be, no idea.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Auggie
(31,061 posts)fall back to the familiar (Obama excepted).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
awesomerwb1
(4,256 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,207 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,836 posts)I have the same feeling I had when I made up my mind about President Obama.. there was a light on the horizon to get the government back together.. we could not have had a better person in place when we had to swing out of the great recession.. feeling really good
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mike Nelson
(9,903 posts)
I predict a big surprise.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden