What if 20% of Biden supporters wouldn't support Sanders?

[Don1]

To be clear, in any election there is a small number of registered Democrats who don't go from one candidate to the other after the primary and that is NOT what is being discussed here. Instead, the VAST MAJORITY by far are Democratic Party-leaning Independents, and possibly even some Republican leaning independents.

If that many Biden supporters were in favor of Biden but would not vote for Sanders in a general election, then the Biden campaign would be congratulated on having a broad base. It would be said that independents and moderates have a preference for Biden relative to other candidates. It'd be considered a success.

In fact, it's already considered a success in a lot of ways that Joe Biden has appeal to quite a number of independents.

I agree that this is a measure of success and I will go further that a good candidate will have a broad coalition among independents, moderates, progressives, and a strong energized base ideally.

(This is not to say that registered Democrats only willing to support 1 candidate is a good thing because all Democrats should vote blue, but this is not about registered Democrats.)

[George II]

1. What's the point of this?

[TwilightZone]

7. "both sides"

Based on false equivalences. He's trying to wave off criticism of Sanders and his supporters by hypothesizing equivalent situations that make no sense.

It's similar to his ridiculous "what if Biden dies?" routine. He later followed up with a similar thread about Sanders that was laughable in the transparency of its assertions.

[LuvLoogie]

2. "but this is not about registered Democrats"

So it's about Bernie? He's not a registered Democrat, either.

[Squinch]

3. What if Cleopatra ran for President and did better than both Biden AND Sanders????

WHAT ABOUT THAT????

[Don1]

5. That's a weird question.

...especially considering the statistic in the op is VERY REALISTIC.

[Squinch]

9. It's SO realistic! And SO relevant!!!!!1! Totally!!!!

[Don1]

11. Thank you for the professional argument.

[Squinch]

13. NO!!! Thank YOU!!!

[grantcart]

30. YEAH THINKING MINDS WANT KNOW!

And what if we had a time machine and brought Helen Keller to the future who would she support?


<my guess is that she would be more interested in the time machine and going far enough into the future to give her sight and hearing lol>

[Gothmog]

4. The primary is over and sander lost

sanders will not be the nominee. 70% of the party has rejected sanders. sanders needs to listen to his advisers and drop out

Link to tweet

A small group of Bernie Sanders’s top aides and allies — including his campaign manager and his longtime strategist — have encouraged the independent senator from Vermont to consider withdrawing from the presidential race, according to two people with knowledge of the situation.

The group includes campaign manager Faiz Shakir and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), a top Sanders surrogate and ally, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive private discussions.

Sanders himself has become more open to the prospect of dropping out, according to one of the people with knowledge of the situation and another close ally, especially if he suffers a significant defeat in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary, which polls suggest Joe Biden will win handily.

Beyond Shakir and Jayapal, longtime strategist Jeff Weaver has privately made a case that exiting the race more quickly and on good terms with Biden would give Sanders more leverage in the long run, according to one of the people; the other said Weaver has used a light touch in presenting his case. Weaver and Jayapal did not return calls and messages seeking comment. Shakir declined to comment.

[former9thward]

42. The primaries are not over.

At least 20 states have not voted. 59% of the party rejected Biden (since you are saying 70% rejected Sanders)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Yes, Biden is well ahead but does not have a majority at this point. Since the convention has been moved back a month there is no reason we should not carry on the primaries as long as there are contending candidates.

[John Fante]

51. Bernie isn't a contending candidate.

He isn't projected to win a single state at this point. Not a one. He's done like dinner.

[Gothmog]

55. Denial is not just a river in African

Link to tweet

[TwilightZone]

6. That doesn't make any sense.

"If that many Biden supporters were in favor of Biden but would not vote for Sanders in a general election, then the Biden campaign would be congratulated on having a broad base."

No, we'd be hearing the same thing from Sanders supporters that we're hearing from Biden supporters. It doesn't make sense that supporters of either candidate would vote for Trump in November. The difference, of course, is that polls show that Biden supporters are much more likely to support Sanders should he be the nominee than the reverse. That's been the case all along.

That's the difference between a campaign and a movement. Biden's campaign and supporters all share the same goal - defeating Trump in November. The focus of some Sanders supporters is quite often Bernie before all other considerations.

Your both-sides assertions keep missing the mark, because they're based on false equivalence.

[LizBeth]

8. We have never had a Trump for last three years and we have never had a crisis like this.

[IllinoisBirdWatcher]

10. If candidate A was beating Candidate C by landslides and I strongly supported Candidate C...

I would urge (demand) that my Candidate C withdraw immediately for the sake of the party, the country, and to move to general election campaigning as soon as possible. I would support and campaign for my party's as strongly as I had previously for Candidate C

[Cha]

12. It's MOOT.. We Don't Have To. So NO "What Ifs"

[Don1]

15. It's not moot.

Even if Bernie has lost, it does not justify bashing and logically invalid points. All that does is alienate people. Winners need to stop bashing and instead accept in good faith when their argumentation is wrong. Being friendly and forthright leads to unity. That means it's not moot but an opportunity for agreement. Will you agree?

[Cha]

20. MOOT

[Don1]

21. No

[Squinch]

38. KUMBAYA, BABY!!!! LET'S SING A SONG ABOUT UNITY!!!

Otherwise BS supporters will take their ball and go home!!!!

LET'S ALL BE FRIENDLY AND FORTHRIGHT TOGETHER!

[John Fante]

52. Unity!!!

While BS supporters accuse Biden of being a rapist.

[Squinch]

57. YEAH! Because they can do that! They're SPECIAL!!!!

[Demsrule86]

43. While they accuse the presumptive Democratic nominee of rape...no thanks...not feeling friendly...

don't think they will vote for us anyway...the hard cases. The thing is they risk making themselves irrelevant in future elections...as new winning coalitions must be formed. In 18 they came out hard against pretty left candidates who either didn't win the primary or lost the election...we have 40 moderates in the House. Again they risk making themselves irrelevant and forcing Democrats to move further right.

[Iggo]

17. Completely moot.

[Celerity]

14. Sanders will never be the Democratic POTUS nominee , never in his life, so this is irrelevant

He will not be it in 2020, even if (as in the fevered and sick dreams of the radical non DU left) Biden dropped dead before November 2020. He will not be POTUS if he is still alive in 2024 or 2028 and insanely runs again.

Bernard Sanders will never be POTUS, he will never be the nominee for the party he seems to hate at times with a passion close to his hate for the Rethugs.

If, dog forbid, Biden were to pass away in 2 weeks, Bernie will still not win. Enough people will vote for Biden still and/or people will jump back into the race and Bernie will never make it to 1991. Then after the first ballot fails to pick a winner, a consensus NON-Sanders candidate will be sorted and will be chosen as the nominee. There is zero chance the party commits electoral suicide and rolls with Sanders. ZERO.

[relayerbob]

16. That's really a weakly significant number - not quite insignificant, but very small

If 20% (claiming they won't vote for JB) of 30% (the average percentage of Dems voting for BS) of 33% of the voting population (registered Dems) would do that, it represents roughly 2% of the voters - that's assuming that original 20% actually ever really intended to vote for Sanders or to even vote at all.

Also, Sanders does not represent everyone who considers themselves progressive. Certainly Warren's supporters would, and they broke largely towards Biden (as I would've expected, having been a Warren supporter). Many of Biden's and the other candidates would consider themselves progressive also, whether the 20% purists think so or not.

And as you mention, independents will lean Biden that wouldn't touch Sanders, and even some of the moderate goppers will. And there are, and always have been, those who will not join the team, no matter who is the nominee, in every party, and throughout our history.

In the end, to fix this whole mess, we'll need a very broad base of support across the nation, and we are going to have to learn how to work together again. In that way, Biden has a path to actual success, not just a "path to the nomination". The prize isn't being President, it's being successful *as* President. Is Sanders wants his ideas used and his legacy remembered, he'd join forces. Instead, it is increasingly likely that either his ideas won't be used, or that they will end up credited elsewhere, so: lose-lose for him.

So, basically, I think I agree with your assessment.

[la-trucker]

18. Ridiculous

That is like asking "what if 20% of the asteroids end up hitting the earth?"

Why have mental self-pleasuring over something that has no chance of ever happening?

[Eko]

19. I find what if questions to always be the last refuge for someone losing an argument badly.

They cant argue the actual details so they create more to favor their narrative. Its so,,,,,,,, predictable.

[Squinch]

33. Lol! I see what you did there!

[Hav]

22. This is just reversing a legitimate criticism of some BS followers,

acting as if it applies to Biden's supporters although it doesn't and then you take the same excuse used by the BS side to give it the appearance of validity. A what if argument for a hypothetical as a distraction because discussing the problem based on the actual facts is inconvenient.

What if BS had pretty much secured the nomination and a considerable percentage of Biden supporters were so butthurt and immature that they'd rather see Trump win another term so that he can take away the healthcare of millions, nominate 2-3 more SC judges and further dismantle the social systems? If they'd do that despite being strongly opposed to that politically, they'd be effing idiots sabotaging their own cause and they wouldn't be Democrats. They shouldn't pretend that they support Biden's plans if they are willing to see the country go in the opposite direction, just out of spite.

[The Magistrate]

26. An Exceptionally Lame Effort At Tu Quoque, Sir

One of those 'scraped the bottom of the barrel till you're digging a hole' moments that is worth treasuring.





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[The Magistrate]

23. What If, As The Man Said, Monkeys Flew Out Of My Bum?

That question is probably a little more worthy of serious speculation than the question posed in the header post, about what if supporters of Mr. Biden might not support Sanders --- hunh?

Bet you never of that, did you?

You must be feeling so cornered and so triggered, by that brilliant riposte to all talk of how Sanders is busy helping that cheap thug Trump....





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[Don1]

24. He would probably be lying.

Your post is irrelevant and inaccurate.

[The Magistrate]

25. Tonight, Sir, Seems Full Of Comedic Delight

I may have to tint my iced seltzer with a bit of brandy....





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[Anon-C]

27. We can What If all day, sometimes its just not meant to be...

[blm]

28. Simple math. Trump wins.

[ucrdem]

29. If the tables were turned

Biden would have gotten out in February and this wouldn't be an issue. That's what you don't want to admit. There's no "you'd act the same way if it was your guy" because our guy would have congratulated Bernie the night of South Carolina and gotten behind the winner. Bernie hanging around like a jilted suitor who won't take no for an answer is a one-off, or two off when you recall that he did the same thing in 2016.

Anyway you probably already know this.

[PubliusEnigma]

31. Undecided, huh?

[Hortensis]

32. THE POINT IS THAT 20% WOULD NOT.

The Democrats you refer to are not the kind of nuts who would throw the nation into Republican hands out of spite and/or irrational idiocy.

No to false equalization with the sorts who vote their malice and dysfunction every election and promise to do so again. If what goes round really came around, they'd be too terrified of consequences to act out this way, all but the most irrational, and fate would take care of those.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

34. What would Spartacus do?

Would he vote for Sanders in a general election where Sanders is not on the ballot?

[Buckeye_Democrat]

35. More voters went from Hillary Clinton to John McCain in 2008...

... than went from Sanders to Trump in 2016.

The difference is that Obama still won by a significant margin in 2008, so the Clinton-to-McCain voters didn’t get as much attention.

The Trump electoral college victory caused a lot of pain among Democrats, and with good reason.

My point is that a lot of people are more sensitive to “defectors” this time around.

Similarly, Ralph Nader is still a selfish prick to many Democrats who previously liked him.

[Kahuna]

37. I keep seeing that with no proof. Are there any exit polls that show that? nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

39. I think this is the source.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-were-those-clinton-mccain-crossover-voters/

Interestingly, 16 percent of McCain voters said they would have voted for Clinton, the Democrat, if she had been her party's nominee.

To call them Clinton primary VOTERS is inaccurate, then.

Would they have actually voted that way? Who knows? Exit pollers ask questions and don’t really verify.

Regardless, I stand by my hypothesis that the pain from the previous election results has a big effect on attitudes this time around.

I witnessed several anti-Ohio generalizations on DU in 2016 too, while firmly red states were given a pass in the “blame game” at the time.

Edit: I don’t usually post in these kinds of threads because of it.

[Kahuna]

40. How does McCain voters would've voted for Clinton prove Clinton voters, voted for McCain???

It doesn't. I believe the claims that 25% of Clinton supporters voted for McCain, are based on pre election day polling. I have yet to see any proof that exit polls support that claim.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

41. I never mentioned 25%, and I also mentioned a caveat...

... about how that exit poll doesn’t say anything about them voting for Clinton in a primary.

If you have contradictory evidence about exit polling from 2008 and 2016, then share it. Unless it’s dramatically different, I see it as a pointless blame game for a group of people.

I voted for Clinton instead of Trump on the FIRST DAY of voting in Ohio because I viewed him as so dangerous. It was the earliest that I’ve ever voted in a general election.

And I’ll do it again, voting for Biden in 2020 despite how he wasn’t my favorite among the Democratic nominees.

I have been extremely depressed about Trump winning the election, but I’m not going to lash out at people who are more likely to vote against that sociopath.

[Don1]

53. You are being logical.

And your opinions are based on evidence and critical thinking which is the way opinions ought to be formed.

[Kahuna]

59. Except there hasn't been any evidence. nt

[Kahuna]

60. Whatever. You didn't provide any proof at all. nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

61. Here's where I originally read it.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

Moreover, defections from a primary to general election are common. More voters went from Hillary Clinton to John McCain in 2008 than went from Sanders to Trump in 2016; about 13 percent of Trump’s 2016 voters also voted for Barack Obama in 2012.

If it’s wrong, take it up with Vox and the UMass professor. I’m not going waste more time in nitpicking over this stuff.

[Kahuna]

62. Save it. Don't try to deflect. What you said was...

More voters went from Hillary Clinton to John McCain in 2008...

... than went from Sanders to Trump in 2016.


You have yet to present proof of this oft repeat claim.

[Demsrule86]

45. operation chaos was in full swing...so you can't know who those voters who didn't vote for the

nominee are...but we know fucking Jill Stein concentrated on the mid west working with the GOP or the Russians...so Sander should get out because if he is seen as causing us to lose to Trump he will be more hated than Jill Stein and Nader combined.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

46. I agree that Sanders should drop out...

... and strongly endorse Biden.

We can’t have another 4 years under Trump.

[Demsrule86]

48. I know you do...didn't mean to imply otherwise. Trump must go. That is the most important thing...he

has killed close to 10,000 Americans last I checked. He is not smart enough to be president and reeks of evil. He doesn't even care about those who die...not one shred of empathy. The Republicans are generally horrible wars, Katrina,9-11 and economic collapse has resulted from the last imbecile Bush, but Trump is so much worse than even I could have imagined.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

49. I was half-wondering if Trump would launch nukes...

... at another country just because their leader poked fun at his hair.

He’s so self-centered and vindictive, any SANE person would be preferable to him!

[Gothmog]

56. Cooperative Congressional Election Survey is the source of this data

The facts are that 25% of sanders supporters helped to elect trump by either voting for trump, voting for a third party candidate like Stein (who like sanders was supported by Russia) or stayed home

Link to tweet

This is based on the Cooperative Congressional Election survey https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social

That is according to the data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study — a massive election survey of around 50,000 people. (For perspective, a run-of-the-mill survey measuring Trump's job approval right now has a sample of 800 to 1,500.)

It appears that the sanders supporters who voted for trump where (I) not really Democrats, (ii) did not like President Obama and (iiii) were racists

Link to tweet

Party seems to have had something to do with it — Sanders-Trump voters were much less likely than Sanders-Clinton or Sanders-third party voters to have been Democrats. Likewise, approval of President Barack Obama appears to be related — Sanders-Trump voters approved of Obama much less than other Sanders primary voters.

Link to tweet

And then there is race. Nearly half of Sanders-Trump voters disagree with the idea that "white people have advantages."

Link to tweet

This tracks with broader observations about election 2016 — for example, as I wrote last week, in general, the larger a state's general-election Trump vote, the less likely its residents are to perceive a lot of discrimination in the world, according to data from the Public Religion Research Institute. And another postelection study — co-authored by Schaffner — found a "relatively strong indication that racism and sexism were more important in 2016 than they had been in previous elections."

These are voters that the Democratic Party should not be courting or counting on. There is nothing that Biden or the party is going to do to win over these voters. Appeasing these voters will only alienate the base of the party such as voters who are proud to be Democrats, who approve of President Obama and who are not racists.

I do not feel like appeasing these voters. The only thing that will make these voters happy is the party making sanders the nominee over the objections of 70% of the party

[Kahuna]

36. Who washed Washington's wash when Washington's wife went west?

[MineralMan]

44. Yes, "Whataboutthat?"

[Demsrule86]

47. The last thing I wish to point out is that had Sanders been all in during the General in 16 and done

his very best to help elect Clinton, he might have been the nominee this year. I voted for Sanders in 16 but this year just couldn't do it...because of the lack of real support in the General when Hillary was the nominee. Thus, he brought it on himself, and what the left hasn't figured out is that he has harmed them as well...new coalitions will be formed and they will lose influence because of Sander's actions IE staying in the primary when all hope is lost. The left and Sanders need to get behind Biden if they wish to remain relevant...Time's up.

[BGBD]

50. But they arent.

Let's deal in reality and not hypotheticals. Biden supporters overwhelmingly said they would support the nominee in polling, and that was when he was down.

Bernie supporters who wont vote for Biden are simply privileged. They dont have to worry what will happen to them personally with 4 more years of Trump and dont care about the vulnerable populations who will be irreparably harmed by another Trump/McConnell term.

[LongtimeAZDem]

54. Does the Gostak distim the doshes?

[SidDithers]

58. Doesn't matter. Sanders isn't going to be the nominee...nt

Sid

[Gothmog]

63. The primary is over

Link to tweet

?s=20

[BlueIdaho]

64. Whatif Whatif whatif whatif whatif....