Biden poised for Wisconsin blowout

[William769]

Bernie Sanders was riding high in Wisconsin just six weeks ago, powered by a double-digit polling lead and the widespread belief that he’d sail to victory just as he did in 2016.

Now, Democratic activists and operatives on the ground expect Sanders to lose big in the crucial Midwestern swing state — a defeat that would likely lead to a deafening chorus of Democratic voices demanding he drop out of the race.

“Up until Biden got his mojo going, it was presumed Sanders would win the state again,” said Patrick Guarasci, a Milwaukee-based Democratic strategist. “He was the most organized here, he had the most vibrant following. A lot has changed in the last month.”

Sanders’ reversal in fortune — the latest Marquette Law School poll shows Sanders trailing Joe Biden by nearly 30-points — comes after a consolidation of Democratic support behind Biden. It’s the same dynamic that lifted the former vice president to victory across 14 states on Super Tuesday then again in a handful of big states that followed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/biden-poised-for-wisconsin-blowout/ar-BB1275Mo?ocid=msedgdhp

[exboyfil]

1. Sanders has shown many of the personality traits

that terrify us about Trump. I wish it was somebody besides these two, but you play the hand you are dealt.

I got to think the disruption for the students who do does weigh down Sanders performance. On the other hand it is long past time for him to exit the stage.

[still_one]

2. +++

[NurseJackie]

8. Thank you.

[MineralMan]

3. Well, we'll find out after the April 7 primary election there.

Turnout will not be as high as it might be, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but mailed-in and other absentee ballots are at record highs in my neighboring state. The election will take place, even if many voters stay away from the polls.

Some, including the Sanders campaign, want the election delayed, but it's unlikely that conditions will improve, in terms of health concerns. Our elections, including primary elections must take place. Some states have delayed theirs, and will be mailing out ballots to allow their citizens to vote without going to a polling place.

Wisconsin, on the other hand, cannot delay its election, since a number of state and local elections are involved, many with short periods before newly elected officials take office.

So, the election will happen, and we will see the results in due time.

Primary elections have a long history of having lower turnout than general elections. Results are a measure of those who do turn out and vote, one way or another.

[George II]

4. 538 forecasts about 50 delegates for Biden, 35 for Sanders, opening the lead to 315.

[William769]

5. Is there a possibility that margin could be wider?

[Tetrachloride]

6. Turn out will vary. My guess is wider. Here's why:

If Bernie's support is among the young, then the lack of University students will drive down Bernie's numbers.

Meanwhile, in my suburban Madison neighborhood, social distance is fairly good, except at supermarkets. Supermarkets are more uneven.

Madison people: your voting locations. https://cityofmadison.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=b8e42f700bd1419daaa06667ee421dbc

Wisconsin Supreme Court race is at stake.

[William769]

7. Thanks.

[Hortensis]

13. Also, we know older voters always turn out through rain and snow

in higher percentages than younger. The virus is just another handleable adversity.

[Indykatie]

16. Wisc Has an Open Primary. Do You Think Some GOP Will Cross Over and Vote for Bernie? n/t

[George II]

10. I think it will be wider, but we won't know until a week later, mail in voting has been extended.

538 updates their forecasts each day. In the last week Biden's delegate count forecast has increased by 70 to 1110 for the remaining primaries. Sanders' has been static.

Their forecast of the final count is now 2335 vs. 1442, +893 delegates.

[William769]

12. Good to know. Thank you.

[Hortensis]

14. "Sanders' has been static." Very interesting.

May be revolution's also been cancelled due to pandemic. That would be expected, actually.

[DenverJared]

9. K&R

[la-trucker]

11. Even if he loses 100:0 he won't drop out

He will continue to say "we're winning the battle of ideas" by clinging on to some vaguely worded exit poll.

It is hard to disembark from a gravy train.

[Hortensis]

15. 100% Sanders will credit everything we do to himself. SOP.

But I think he really believes it. We start from 0 as Dem'dRepubs in his mind, so how else could he explain it?

[Cha]

17. Excellent and I hope it follows

through like the other states where the Democratic Party wants to WIN.

No time for anything else.

Mahalo, Bill