538: How Is Joe Biden Remaking The 2016 Primary Map?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The 2020 Democratic primary is on the backburner. Many states have postponed their primaries because of the spread of the coronavirus, but there isn’t much question as to who will win the nomination.

For all intents and purposes, former Vice President Joe Biden is now the presumptive nominee. He has amassed a more or less insurmountable lead in the pledged delegate count, 1,201 to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s 888, according to ABC News. And he’s done it by winning places Sanders won handily in 2016 and even overperforming Hillary Clinton in some areas she won four years ago.

So let’s take a deep dive into Biden’s map so far and look at where he’s outperformed Clinton and where he’s gained ground from Sanders. We dug into county-level data for the 18 states that have already held primaries1 and compared their 2020 and 2016 results.

Bottom line: Biden held onto much of the turf that Clinton won in 2016, but he also captured a lot of territory that Sanders carried four years ago. We found that much of Biden’s success can be explained by his dominance in areas with larger shares of white voters without a college degree. Biden has also done better among college-educated white voters than Sanders has in 2020 and better in rural areas than Clinton did in 2016.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-is-joe-biden-remaking-the-2016-primary-map/

[GeorgiaPeanut]

1. Biden might win 40-42 states if Trump continues to mismanage

the epidemic and the economy.

[George II]

3. He's on a trajectory to win 46 of the 57 primaries/caucuses. Of the other eleven...

Sanders has won 8.5
Buttigieg has won 1.5
Bloomberg has won 1

[GeorgiaPeanut]

9. I meant the GE against Trump ... sorry

[cheezmaka]

4. Today the Democratic Nomination...November The White House!!!

It can't come fast enough! It's time to bring back "respect" and "dignity" to the Office, The White House, and the Entire Nation!!!

[onetexan]

14. +1 K&R

[William769]

5. Kick & recommended.

[Sloumeau]

6. Gosh, what a complete obliteration of Bernie.

Bernie is losing badly.

[msongs]

7. turns out people don't want a guy who acts like a know it alls who's superior them nt

[Cha]

8. Mahalo for Nate!

For all intents and purposes, former Vice President Joe Biden is now the presumptive nominee. He has amassed a more or less insurmountable lead in the pledged delegate count, 1,201 to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s 888, according to ABC News. And he’s done it by winning places Sanders won handily in 2016 and even overperforming Hillary Clinton in some areas she won four years ago.

In fact, Biden finished first in 93 percent of the counties that Clinton won in 2016. On top of that, he won 83 percent of the counties that Sanders carried in 2016, meaning that Sanders held onto very little of what he won last time around. These gains were especially apparent once Biden and Sanders moved into the head-to-head portion of the race, starting with the primaries on March 10.2 In the six states that voted on March 10 or later — Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi and Missouri — Sanders won about half of all counties in those states in 2016, but just three in 2020. Although Sanders did win some places that Clinton carried in 2016, he gained relatively little ground outside of California and Texas, and Sanders’s additions in Texas weren’t enough to help him

Thank you!!

[BidenBacker]

10. Mahalo, Cha

In fact, Biden finished first in 93 percent of the counties that Clinton won in 2016. On top of that, he won 83 percent of the counties that Sanders carried in 2016

I guess losing 7% of the counties that Hillary won in 2016 is a good tradeoff to win 83% of the ones that Bernie won!

In the six states that voted on March 10 or later — Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi and Missouri — Sanders won about half of all counties in those states in 2016, but just three in 2020

Still can't believe that one of those lousy 3 counties was mine...LOL. But Flagstaff a small town where NAU makes up a relatively large percentage of the total population so I attribute it to that.

Rest assured that AZ CD1 will vote for Joe in November! Along with the rest of the state...knock on wood.

[Cha]

11. Yes, Knock very Loud on Wood..

Joe Biden has won the Arizona primary

Despite Sanders’s generally strong support among Latino voters, Biden’s victory in Arizona is unsurprising. Ahead of the primary, Biden had netted victories in 16 other states and gave a strong performance in the latest debate, projecting “confidence and competence on the coronavirus pandemic” and landing “solid hits” on Sanders’s record, as my colleague Zack Beauchamp writes.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/17/21183364/joe-biden-wins-arizona-primary-results-2020

BS was leading in Arizona before Biden Took the Two Previous Super Spectacular Tuesdays.. So Good for Democracy!

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. With Sanders' advantage with LatinX voters, I was really surprised and happy as hell to see...

Joe declared the victor there.

[Cha]

13. I know, Tarheel! We want trump Gone..

and the Best one to be President so this has been blessing for the World AFAIC!

StaySafe!

[The Magistrate]

15. Sanders, Sir, Is Supported By a Unique Sort Of Identity Politics

Expressions of support for Sanders are made as a marker of political orientation. Expressing support for Sanders says 'I'm not a moderate, I'm well to the left of most people', and as with most such things, serves to identify a 'cool' group separate from the general run of 'squares'. People doing this do not even particularly want to prevail, in the sense of being in the majority. It is axiomatic that a majority can never be 'cool', the feeling of being 'hip' and part of an 'in-crowd' depends on being outnumbered by the host of the unwashed and unenlightened. The point is not to achieve any political goal, to secure any discrete reform, it is simply to be sure one is perceived as a particular, and special, kind of person.

People who have an actual interest in achieving the goals widespread among Democrats, the goals of all left and progressive and liberal persons in general, recognize readily Sanders is far too flawed as a politician, and as a personality, to make any progress towards their goals. They know Sanders has not achieved any measurable advance towards them in his long Congressional career. They know Sanders' claim to hold patents and copyrights on these goals is nonesense, because they know their own desires pre-date Sanders, and exist in their hearts and minds without the slightest reference to him or influence by him.

In short, while Sanders imagines himself to be the indispensable man, an overwhelming majority of Democratic voters are clear in their minds that Sanders is quite dispensable, and are determined to see him disposed of, as soon as possible.





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."