Democratic Primaries

George II

(67,782 posts) Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:00 PM Mar 2020

538 Forecast of delegate count at the end of the primaries:

Biden - 2,430 (439 more than 1991)
Sanders - 1,339 (652 short of 1991)
Gabbard - 45

Others with delegates:

Warren -72
Bloomberg - 61
Buttigieg - 26
Klobuchar - 7

Chances of getting to 1991:

Biden - 99 in 100, >99%
No One - <1 in 100, 0.3%
Sanders - <1 in 100, 0.1%
Gabbard - <1 in 100, 0.0%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

14 replies

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538 Forecast of delegate count at the end of the primaries: (Original Post) George II Mar 2020 OP

That looks quite sound. Maru Kitteh Mar 2020 #1

George II, thanks for posting this! :) Sloumeau Mar 2020 #2

I'll vote for that! MineralMan Mar 2020 #3

At This Point, Bernie Sanders Would Want to Just Cancel Primaries... TomCADem Mar 2020 #4

HOW MUCH will sanders LOSE on campaigning and failing again? AND we are to trust this guy with MONEY beachbumbob Mar 2020 #5

It's not his money. He's sent out two fundraising emails since the debate - one 10 minutes.... George II Mar 2020 #6

and he opened 5 new offices in PA a few days ago FM123 Mar 2020 #9

No One ranks higher than Bernie NurseJackie Mar 2020 #7

Great news! Here's to Joe Biden Hiawatha Pete Mar 2020 #8

538 says no one has a better chance than Sanders? docgee Mar 2020 #10

Since you posted, Bernie's chances of getting to 1991 have dropped significantly. beastie boy Mar 2020 #11

Will Gabbard even qualify with 15%? LiberalFighter Mar 2020 #12

I'm really worried about Governor No One though. eom tarheelsunc Mar 2020 #13

Always a brides-maid & never a Bride. William769 Mar 2020 #14

Maru Kitteh

(28,340 posts)

1. That looks quite sound.

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:04 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)

2. George II, thanks for posting this! :)

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:05 PM

Mar 2020

This is good news for Joe Biden!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)

3. I'll vote for that!

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:26 PM

Mar 2020

Oh, wait...I already did.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TomCADem

(17,387 posts)

4. At This Point, Bernie Sanders Would Want to Just Cancel Primaries...

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:30 PM

Mar 2020

...before Biden reaches 1991, then argue that he would have gotten to 1991 if they had not cancelled before the June deadline for selecting delegates. Yes, this would be incredibly disruptive, but Bernie does not care, because he is not a Democrat and is just in this to make himself the center of attention.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)

5. HOW MUCH will sanders LOSE on campaigning and failing again? AND we are to trust this guy with MONEY

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:31 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

6. It's not his money. He's sent out two fundraising emails since the debate - one 10 minutes....

Reply to beachbumbob (Reply #5)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:40 PM

Mar 2020

....after it ended, one first thing this morning. I'm sure there will be another one later today.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

FM123

(10,053 posts)

9. and he opened 5 new offices in PA a few days ago

Reply to George II (Reply #6)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 01:01 PM

Mar 2020

I know he believes in science but what about math?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

7. No One ranks higher than Bernie

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:43 PM

Mar 2020

Cracks me up EVERY TIME!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Hiawatha Pete

(1,799 posts)

8. Great news! Here's to Joe Biden

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:44 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

docgee

(870 posts)

10. 538 says no one has a better chance than Sanders?

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 01:06 PM

Mar 2020

No One - <1 in 100, 0.3%
Sanders - <1 in 100, 0.1%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

beastie boy

(9,369 posts)

11. Since you posted, Bernie's chances of getting to 1991 have dropped significantly.

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 01:33 PM

Mar 2020

538 now projects them to be 0.0%. Exactly the same as Gabbard's.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LiberalFighter

(50,942 posts)

12. Will Gabbard even qualify with 15%?

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:20 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

tarheelsunc

(2,117 posts)

13. I'm really worried about Governor No One though. eom

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:13 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

William769

(55,147 posts)

14. Always a brides-maid & never a Bride.

Reply to George II (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:22 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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