How can a seemingly very intelligent man have such a poor understanding of probability

[DemocratSinceBirth]

“People are going to be asking themselves as they watch that debate who is going to be better able to take on Trump one-on-one,” Reich said. “The stampede toward Biden was remarkably fast. That shows that his support is not absolutely steadfast, so it’s at least possible that if his debate performance is very bad on Sunday, Bernie Sanders could have a renaissance.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/sanderss-primary-losses-michigan-and-mississippi/607795/

[lapfog_1]

1. grasping at any straw they find...

but not many left

[Turin_C3PO]

2. I guess

anything could happen but the chances for Sanders to catch fire enough to win the nomination is astronomical. I believe I read that he’d have to win every remaining state by 15-20%. I doubt that’s going to happen, even if Biden flubs the debate.

[Cicada]

3. Two weeks ago the odds of Biden winning were very low

If perceived probability was so wrong two weeks ago I’m not sure it is so great a guide now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Probability is probability.

It's ranges from high to low to essentially zero.

[el_bryanto]

5. Well - let's be clear - Biden supporters want Sanders supporters demoralized and pushing him

to drop out. Convincing Sanders supporter that Biden is inevitable is good strategy. It might be accurate as well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I can shoot a basketball. LeBron James can shoot a basketball.

Consequently I have a non-zero chance of beating LeBron James in a game of one on one. That's essentially Reich's logic distilled.

[TwilightZone]

10. He should drop out because the race is over and we don't need a repeat of 2016.

It's not complicated. It has nothing to do with demoralizing Sanders supporters.

Not everything is about Sanders. This is about moving on, uniting the party, and defeating Trump in November.

[LanternWaste]

15. I used to pretend I knew what other people wanted as well.

But then (around fifth grade or so), I grew out of that imaginary pretense and realized these 'prophecies' we allege speak more to our own biases than those we target.

Let's be clear, indeed.

[TwilightZone]

7. The projections were wrong in part because of faulty assumptions.

538, for example, has noted that their models factored in the possibility that Biden would withdraw prior to SC, which was never going to happen. That caused the overall model and all future state models to be skewed.

"Ever since he finished fourth in Iowa, Biden has no longer been the favorite in South Carolina, according to our model. Sanders currently has a 1 in 2 (47 percent) chance of winning South Carolina, while Biden has a 2 in 5 (37 percent) shot. However, part of the reason our model has Sanders as the favorite is that it thinks Biden could drop out before South Carolina even votes. In the scenarios where Biden is still in the race come Feb. 29, though, he is probably still favored in the Palmetto State."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-hasnt-exactly-collapsed-since-new-hampshire/

We have a much clearly picture of the race now. Biden is projected to win nearly every remaining state, and there's little reason to believe that they're as wrong as the SC projections.

[dansolo]

12. Two weeks ago we hadn't gone through half of the primaries

This is an absolutely rediculous argument.

[Happy Hoosier]

13. The problem is that this is not a discrete event.

Primaries happen over time. With SuperT done and 3/10 now in the books, there are delegates counts that cannot change, no matter how popular Sanders gets. That means that Sanders needs to not only win, but win with unrealistic margins. Look up "conditional probability." In short, the events that needed to occur early for Sanders to have a chance did not occur. The remaining paths require increasingly unlikely events for him to win.

[LanternWaste]

16. Two weeks ago the sampling size of cast votes were far too small to be indicative.

A greater sampling size of votes cast results in a more accurate indicator.

[MaryMagdaline]

6. The unacknowledged data shows that 70%

Voted against Bernie and in favor of more centrist candidates. Why anyone would expect that group to go over to Bernie is remarkable. What WAS to be expected is that we would have a Balkanized party giving Bernie the nomination. The miracle was that likeminded people got together to defeat Bernie when they knew, statistically, they could not win without coming together. It was a triumph of reason over ego.

[honest.abe]

8. Joe would have to start babbling in tongues at the next debate for Sanders to have a renaissance.

[sop]

11. The one-on-one format with no studio audience will favor Biden.

Joe is at his best when given time to calmly and quietly explain his positions, not competing with multiple candidates for a few seconds of attention. Biden doesn't do one-liner, bumper-sticker, hand-waving bombast well, he's much more nuanced and reflective. A quality that most voters are yearning for after enduring three years of Trump's histrionics.

[True Blue American]

14. Robert Reich

Another out of date forecaster.

He left the Clinton Administration because he disagreed with the Clinton plan to balance the budget. We see who was right on that discussion.