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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 12:24 AM Mar 2020

It's all about the delegates now...

and the delegate math just doesn't favour Bernie.

Winning MI by 1%, as Bernie did in 2016, might be a moral victory, but would net only a couple delegates.

Bernie needs a resounding victory in MI, between 10% and 20%, in order try to claw into Biden's delegate lead.

Similarly for WA. Narrow victories won't do it, because Biden's going to win big in MS and could net 15-20 delegates.

There are 365 delegates available on Mar 10. (including Democrats Abroad)

If Bernie is a net delegate loser or even a slim net delegate winner (less than +20) on Mar 10, then his campaign is done.

If Bernie is a moderate delegate winner (+40 to +50) then his campaign will live until Mar 17.

If Bernie is a big delegate winner on Mar 10 (+80 to +100) then his campaign comes off life support and he's back in the race.

I believe that the results from Mar 10 will fall into the first category.

Sid

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
It's all about the delegates now... (Original Post) SidDithers Mar 2020 OP
Sid you did it...good. This is a great post...and went through it carefully and Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #1
Let's revisit this on Mar 11, see how I did... SidDithers Mar 2020 #4
Thank you for your analysis, Sid. Cha Mar 2020 #2
Heya Cha... SidDithers Mar 2020 #5
Edge of my seat again.. Cha Mar 2020 #7
"Joementum" like the Blue Wave, will not be denied. oasis Mar 2020 #3
The Bible (Nate Silver's 538) agrees SCantiGOP Mar 2020 #6
Let's make it so! sheshe2 Mar 2020 #8
We've come to the same conclusion RDavisJ1 Mar 2020 #9
Kick...nt SidDithers Mar 2020 #10
Good analysis, Sid. MineralMan Mar 2020 #11
How many delegates do you think Biden will get tomorrow? nt showblue22 Mar 2020 #12
Pure guess - I say Biden is +75 delegates on the night... SidDithers Mar 2020 #14
Not a bad guess... SidDithers Mar 2020 #15
Kick & recommended. William769 Mar 2020 #13
 

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
1. Sid you did it...good. This is a great post...and went through it carefully and
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 12:29 AM
Mar 2020

booked marked it...thanks! Very helpful .

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
4. Let's revisit this on Mar 11, see how I did...
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 12:32 AM
Mar 2020


Sid
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Cha

(295,899 posts)
2. Thank you for your analysis, Sid.
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 12:30 AM
Mar 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(295,899 posts)
7. Edge of my seat again..
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 12:41 AM
Mar 2020

Aloha, Sid~

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

oasis

(49,150 posts)
3. "Joementum" like the Blue Wave, will not be denied.
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 12:31 AM
Mar 2020

Biden's the one who'll get it done.

DEMOCRAT

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

SCantiGOP

(13,856 posts)
6. The Bible (Nate Silver's 538) agrees
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 12:36 AM
Mar 2020

It currently has Biden's odds at 7 out of 8, and Bernie at 1 in 50.

If you want to bet the long shot, Tulsi is <1 in 100. "Less than" 1 could mean her odds are at hundreds of thousands to one.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

sheshe2

(83,324 posts)
8. Let's make it so!
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 12:53 AM
Mar 2020

Thanks, Sid.



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

RDavisJ1

(52 posts)
9. We've come to the same conclusion
Sat Mar 7, 2020, 01:38 AM
Mar 2020
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287642099

The bad news for Bernie is March 17th is looking worse for him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

showblue22

(1,026 posts)
12. How many delegates do you think Biden will get tomorrow? nt
Tue Mar 10, 2020, 01:50 AM
Mar 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
14. Pure guess - I say Biden is +75 delegates on the night...
Tue Mar 10, 2020, 08:07 AM
Mar 2020

so 220 Biden, 145 Sanders.

Which is exactly the opposite of what Sanders needs.

Sid

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
15. Not a bad guess...
Wed Mar 11, 2020, 09:34 AM
Mar 2020

Here's how the delegates are shaking out after last night, according to The Green Papers:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D

MS Biden +32
MO Biden +20
MI Biden +21
ID Biden +2
ND Sanders +2
WA Tie

Total Biden +73

I thought Democrats Abroad was also a Mar 10 result, but that's when voting closes. Results for DA are due Mar 23.

Obviously, results may still change a bit, but probably not by much.

Sid

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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