538 says Biden has a 75% chance of winning Michigan. 3 in 4 for Biden and 1in 4 for Sanders!

[Demsrule86]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/michigan/

[Cha]

1. Steady On GO JOE in Michigan!

TY Dems !

[Demsrule86]

3. I think Biden might do even better than expected too in the end Cha!

[Cha]

5. I hope it's like all those who turned out to get Gov Gretchen Whitmer

elected! Remember that primary and eventual swearing in of Gretchen Whitmer?

[Demsrule86]

7. It was a wonderful day...I live in Ohio and have been to Michigan often hubs works in auto parts.

It is very cold today and will be tomorrow...going canvassing tomorrow long underwear and a down coat...I have two packets...It is snowing tonight. I bet Hawaii is lovely. Hubs boss was sent home yesterday from work with corona virus/flu symptoms. We can't get tested in Ohio...oh well hoping for the best. I am prone to upper respiratory infections...(smokers for parents)...very nervous.

[Cha]

9. Oh.. I wish you all the

very best for your health, Dems.

Why can't you get tested in Ohio?

Thanks for canvassing for Democracy!

[Demsrule86]

10. We haven't had any cases that are documented so we are very low priority. They have rules about who

can get tested...today Trump said he wants the sick people to stay on the boat so he doesn't have to count them...I kid you not...we are all going to die with that idiot in charge.

[Cha]

11. Exactly a huge reason we need Biden!

Thank you.

[Demsrule86]

12. So true...those who didn't vote for Hillary have much blood on their hands...Cha. I don't

know how they sleep at night.

[DonaldsRump]

2. Am feeling the Burn....the Biden Burn! n/t

[Demsrule86]

4. I too am feeling the Biden burn...and he is going to burn the crap out of Trump in November...

Go Joe!!!

[Scurrilous]

6. Nice verticals for Biden.

[Demsrule86]

8. Very nice..and I just saw that Sander may be slipping in Washington also.

I want this over. I hope Biden puts it away if not Tuesday then with Florida.

[SidDithers]

13. It's all about the delegates now...

and the delegate math just doesn't favour Bernie.

Winning MI by 1%, as Bernie did in 2016, might be a moral victory, but would net only a couple delegates.

Bernie needs a resounding victory in MI, between 10% and 20%, in order try to claw into Biden's delegate lead.

Similarly for WA. Narrow victories won't do it, because Biden's going to win big in MS and could net 15-20 delegates.

There are 365 delegates available on Mar 10.

If Bernie is a net delegate loser or even a slim net delegate winner (less than +20) on Mar 10, then his campaign is done.

If Bernie is a moderate delegate winner (+40 to +50) then his campaign will live until Mar 17.

If Bernie is a big delegate winner on Mar 10 (+80 to +100) then his campaign comes off life support and he's back in the race.

Sid

[Demsrule86]

14. That is a very good analysis... you should post that as an OP.

"If Bernie is a big delegate winner on Mar 10 (+80 to +100) then his campaign comes off life support and he's back in the race." Looking at the situation, I find that very unlikely...I am hoping it is over sooner rather than later. I have no patience to endure a scorched earth situation in 20...Trump must go. I sincerely hope Sanders puts the country first and bows out.

[SidDithers]

15. I will...

thanks

I also see a lot of similarities to 2016 now too.

It's down to a 2 person race, where Sanders is all but eliminated, so he and his surrogates go scorched earth, and Biden - not wanting to turn off potential voters from Bernie's base goes hands-off. Bernie is out of it so early that there's no more aggressive campaigning against him and he's treated with kid gloves until the convention, all the while his campaign is pounding on Biden, trying to get back into it.

Sid