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Democratic Primaries

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts) Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:05 AM Mar 2020

10

Latest 538 numbers...Who will win the 2020 primary?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

15 replies

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Latest 538 numbers...Who will win the 2020 primary? (Original Post) Demsrule86 Mar 2020 OP

Biden now up to 1740 projected delegates honest.abe Mar 2020 #1

I sure hope so DownriverDem Mar 2020 #4

Enough delegates for what?? honest.abe Mar 2020 #6

You have repeated this over and over...where did you see this? Please post a link. Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #11

It's the 538 model. Happy Hoosier Mar 2020 #14

I think so... Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #7

Their model seems to rely very heavily on momentum. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #2

Biden has to limit Sanders today...given early voting, it will be a battle. Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #8

Agreed. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #12

Poll this morning confirming their projection unc70 Mar 2020 #13

True - it's anyone's guess until tomorrow morning. King4ADay Mar 2020 #15

This Super Tuesday Morning bucolic_frolic Mar 2020 #3

Michigan DownriverDem Mar 2020 #5

Yep...we got Joe's back. Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #10

I agree. And Ohio is important too...early voting here on Saturday for Biden of course. Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #9

honest.abe

(8,685 posts)

1. Biden now up to 1740 projected delegates

Reply to Demsrule86 (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:06 AM

Mar 2020

Sanders sinking rapidly.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DownriverDem

(6,231 posts)

4. I sure hope so

Reply to honest.abe (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:11 AM

Mar 2020

I've been seeing that Bernie will have enough delegates by the end of the night. I've been with Joe since the beginning and am rooting for him big time.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,685 posts)

6. Enough delegates for what??

Reply to DownriverDem (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:13 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts)

11. You have repeated this over and over...where did you see this? Please post a link.

Reply to DownriverDem (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:24 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Happy Hoosier

(7,386 posts)

14. It's the 538 model.

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #11)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 11:19 AM

Mar 2020

It IS just a model, so take with a large grain of salt.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts)

7. I think so...

Reply to honest.abe (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:20 AM

Mar 2020

Fuck Bloomberg for not getting out.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,479 posts)

2. Their model seems to rely very heavily on momentum.

Reply to Demsrule86 (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:08 AM

Mar 2020

Today's results will give some indication if that's warranted. Of course, we won't know CA for a while.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts)

8. Biden has to limit Sanders today...given early voting, it will be a battle.

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:22 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,479 posts)

12. Agreed.

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #8)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:26 AM

Mar 2020

If he can get solid wins in the states he's projected to win and limit the gap in CA and TX, it'll be a decent day and the projections will look reasonable. Then, it's about momentum for the next few states.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

unc70

(6,119 posts)

13. Poll this morning confirming their projection

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 11:15 AM

Mar 2020

Civitas has Biden up to 45%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

King4ADay

(48 posts)

15. True - it's anyone's guess until tomorrow morning.

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 11:20 AM

Mar 2020

Once there is actual data on how momentum translates to actual votes cast it's just a guessing game.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

bucolic_frolic

(43,281 posts)

3. This Super Tuesday Morning

Reply to Demsrule86 (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:08 AM

Mar 2020

I'm thinking that large states will be decisive later in the spring. Pennsylvania April 28 for example. And I bet on Joe Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DownriverDem

(6,231 posts)

5. Michigan

Reply to bucolic_frolic (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:12 AM

Mar 2020

is March 10th and I am looking at my ballot right now.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts)

10. Yep...we got Joe's back.

Reply to DownriverDem (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:23 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts)

9. I agree. And Ohio is important too...early voting here on Saturday for Biden of course.

Reply to bucolic_frolic (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:23 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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