The daily 538 cratering of Sanders continues unabated, on the verge of going sub 20% for 1991

[Celerity]

He is on the verge of going sub 40% in terms of total pledged delegates as well, which is massive

as zero chance, even with a plurality (I do NOT think he will even have a plurality) he will get the nomination with 36%, 38% or less of the pledged delegates,

the maths (even if he rolls in with 45% ie, 1791) simply do not add up

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/







Here is a deep dive I did earlier:

Lets say Bernie has 1791 pledged delegates (45%) for the first ballot, where 1991 is needed.

It will then go to a second ballot, as there is zero chance that Biden can hit 1991 if Sanders has 1791, as that leaves only 197 delegates won by ALL the others, and there is no way a combined Pete (now out), Amy, Warren, and Bloomberg end up with a total of only 197, that will never happen. They will have hundred and hundreds more than that, but on the first ballot, they are locked in to vote for their candidate.


So, we move onto the 2nd ballot. At this point, the magic 1991 number now goes up to 2375, as now the Superdelegates can vote and are included.

If no one gets 1,991 votes on the first ballot, then things could get more complicated. This is the scenario people refer to when they use the phrase “contested convention” or “brokered convention.”

In this situation, there would be a second ballot. And on the second ballot, there are votes from two sets of delegates:

Votes from the 3,979 pledged delegates, who are allowed to support a different candidate on the second ballot if they so choose

An additional 771 votes from “automatic delegates,” commonly known as superdelegates

To win the nomination, a candidate still must earn a majority of the votes on a given ballot. In this case, that means she or he must amass more than 2,375 pledged and automatic delegates. (In the second and subsequent rounds, a few automatic delegates get only half votes; the D.N.C. says the magic number is 2,375.5, which this time is not rounded up.)

It is theoretically possible that the nomination process would extend through multiple ballots until one candidate hits the magic number (2,375.5) and prevails. One thing to keep in mind is that delegates do not need to stay with the candidate to whom they were originally allocated and can move around.

This all means Bernie needs to gain 584 MORE delegates. All the pledged delegates are now unlocked and can switch, plus the SD's can vote for whomever they desire. I do not see him getting more than 150-200 MAX (if that) of the SD's. Most are vehemently against him.

So he needs around 400 to 450 or so MORE.

Even if ALL of Warren's delegates go to Bernie (that will never happen), she will more than likely have only around 150 to 200 total delegates.

So he will STILL be 200 to 300 SHORT of 2375.

I do not see many of the other candidates' delegates going to Bernie (other than Warren's and not all of hers will), and Bernie MAY lose a few himself. His campaign and social media and far left sites have savagely attacked Pete, Klobuchar, Biden, Warren, Bloomberg for ages. There is a LOT of animosity there.

In fact, Bernie could roll in with 47%, or even 48% and the breakdown still works. Biden was now said he will contest at the convention even if Bernie has a plurality, and IF Bernie does end up with 45%, it will be next to impossible for Biden to end up with more than 37%, 38% or so, MAX, due to the others running. He likely would be in the low 30's.

That said, IF they all rally around Biden on the 2nd ballot, you could have a 45% to 47, 48% Bernie (in terms of actual voted on pledged delegates, although as stated above this is extremely unlikely that he gets anywhere near that many at all) having the nomination ripped away from him. IF that happens, the party will rip itself apart and Trump will surely win. We are headed into dangerous, treacherous waters. I REALLY hope Biden can somehow pass up Sanders in terms of a plurality, and even better, somehow hit 1991 (probably impossible unless Sanders collapses and ALL but Joe drop out ASAP.)

[msongs]

1. saving the nation from an autocratic demogogue is worth the price. I mean trump of course :-) nt

[highplainsdem]

2. Sanders just dropped to 17% with their 4:49 pm ET update.

[TwilightZone]

3. "having the nomination ripped away from him"

If he never has a majority, he never had the nomination. You can't rip something away from someone who never had it.

Sorry, but I just don't buy the doom and gloom you're selling. If it ends up 52/48 Biden, you really think the party is going to rip itself apart? Nonsense. We heard the same stuff in 2016 and all that happened was some Sanders supporters raised hell, then took their toys and stayed home on election day or voted for Stein.

Ah, but that's a problem, right? We got four years of Trump out of it, one might say, so this time, we better acquiesce to the worst of the worst and hand Sanders the nomination, even if he didn't actually earn it. Make sense?

Nah. If Sanders isn't the nominee, that same faction will do the same thing they did in 2016, regardless of the split. He lost Dems 2:1 to Clinton in 2016 and they *still* did it.

Want proof? Go spend some time on those "other" progressive sites, because they're already talking about it. They're the same people busy calling Elizabeth Warren the "C" word.

[Celerity]

7. IF (and it is highly, highly unlikely) Sanders rolls in with 45% to 48% of pledged delegates

and no one else is within 10 points of him, then it will (to his supporters) face up as he had it ripped away from him.

I think Biden goes in with a plurality, if not an outright 1991 or more delegate count. The plurality is the key, as Sanders cannot claim he 'won' at all if Biden sits at 43% and he is at 39% (you can move those numbers around, but the key is Biden has more delegates)

It will still be ugly, but not the nightmarish first scenario.

[Codeine]

10. IF he came in with 48%

and a 10 point lead then there’s very little chance he wouldn’t be the nominee. That’s the kind of margin nobody would argue with.

But that’s a very slim chance.

[Celerity]

11. agreed!

[TwilightZone]

13. That means other candidates would get 14%.

I just don't see that happening, especially if everyone drops out other than maybe Warren.

[Codeine]

14. Oh, I totally agree.

It’s a silly argument in the first place, but if it did work out that way he’d be a shoo-in.

[TwilightZone]

12. With all the dropouts, it's highly unlikely to be 45/35 or similar.

I think either Sanders gets 50+1 going in or it's much closer than your scenario. An outside shot of Biden coming in with 50+1 if rallying behind him turns into major momentum.

Even if it's not really close, people can do the math. If Sanders comes in with the lead and Biden's the only other candidate left and everyone knows that Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and (presumably) Bloomberg have all been behind him for months, people are going to assume, right or wrong, that most of their delegates are, essentially, now Biden's. Same with Sanders and Warren. That's not actually how it works, of course, but that's how the average person who knows little about the process is going to look at it.

Let's use the current forecast as an example. It's nowhere near your 10% gap, and it only involves what are essentially first-ballot numbers, but it'll do to make my point. It also assumes BB and Warren stay in the race, just to make it interesting and because they're forecast to win delegates at present.

Sanders 1570
Biden 1484
Bloomberg 621
Warren 264
Buttigieg/Klobuchar (33 total, for the moment)

If Bloomberg emphatically endorses Biden, and Warren emphatically endorses Sanders, and the average person looks at those numbers, what's the first reaction?

Biden win, right? Don't even need the SDs. That's how the average person (read, not a Sanders supporter) is going to look at it, simplistic as it is. Again, it doesn't work like that, but I'm making it simple to make the point.

The only scenario that I see really causing a problem is if Sanders has a big lead, but not a majority, after the first ballot, but it's close enough that the SDs can all rally behind Biden and it's just enough for him to win 51/49 or something. I'm not sure that's even mathematically possible and I'm too lazy to do the math, but let's say it is. Outside of that or something similar happening, I just don't think most voters are going to care.

Of course, Sanders knows that which is why he's jacking up his supporters and trying to plant the seed that the whole thing is *already* unfair to him, simply by default, setting the table to bitch about it regardless.

[pampango]

4. Great post. But a contested convention? A Trump/GOP dream come true.

What more could he and Mitch ask for?

If anyone comes to the convention having won 48% of the delegates during the primaries and the superdelegates hand the nomination to someone else, Trump will smile. He may well still lose but he will smile since dividing the opposition is his only hope.

[TwilightZone]

5. "He may well still lose but he will smile "

No. Staying in office may be the only thing that keeps him out of prison. He quite certainly won't be smiling if he loses. In addition, if he does lose, it would appear that the decision made at the convention would have been the correct one.

That's pretty much the whole point of the process - choose the candidate best suited to defeat Trump in November.

[pampango]

6. I meant he (and the rest of the GOP) will smile at the sight of a contested Democratic convention.

That's pretty much the whole point of the process - choose the candidate best suited to defeat Trump in November.

I believe that for most liberals, the process by which our party chooses a candidate still matters. Technically, a candidate with 48% of the pledged delegates is not guaranteed anything.

In practical political terms, if Biden or Bloomberg or anyone else shows up with 48% and does not get the nomination, it is quite likely that there will be hard feelings from some of their supporters. If either of them or Sanders, fizzle on Tuesday or later in the primary season, they will never get to 48% anyway. Let's hope it does not come to a contested convention.

[TwilightZone]

8. They don't care.

All they care about is winning. If the convention is contested and they lose, the fact that the convention was contested is irrelevant.

"I believe that for most liberals, the process by which our party chooses a candidate still matters."

That's why there's a process. All of the candidates agreed to the process by running as Democrats, and some, including Sanders, were involved in setting the parameters.

"it is quite likely that there will be hard feelings from some of their supporters. "

There will be hard feelings regardless. In 2016, Clinton beat Sanders 2:1 among Democrats and won the nomination handily prior to the convention, and some Sanders supporters still went ballistic, then stayed home or voted for Stein.

We shouldn't make decisions based on the actions or attitudes of the worst of the worst. Appeasing people who are going to be unhappy regardless gets us nowhere. We tried that in 2016 by giving Sanders influence at the convention and members on the board and a chunk of his supporters stayed home anyway. It's a no-win where some of them are concerned.

[pampango]

9. If you feel that any candidate who arrives at the convention with 48% of the pledged delegates

and loses has no right to be unhappy, we fundamentally disagree. If Biden or Bloomberg or anyone else has 48% and the superdelegates give the nomination to Sanders on the second ballot, I bet Biden and many of his supporters will not be very happy about that. Will they all dutifully line up behind Sanders in the general election?

I doubt it will come to that. One candidate or another usually catches fire, gets 'momentum' and starts getting the votes of people who want to vote for a 'winner', even when things are closely fought early in the primaries.

[TwilightZone]

15. Not happening.

The math just doesn't work. Warren is forecast to get about 5% but it's unlikely she stays in until the convention. BB is forecast to get more than that, but it's highly unlikely he'll stay in the race if Biden has a good day tomorrow and has momentum. Assuming he drops out after ST or shortly thereafter, he's forecast to get about 2%. The others have a handful of delegates between them.

Assuming Warren stays in until the convention (unlikely) and that BB drops out soon (quite likely), that leaves 93%. If Sanders comes in with 48%, that means Biden has 45% (and probably more). That's not enough of a lead to just hand the nomination to Sanders.

The doomsday scenarios made in the OP and that people often make in the comments simply aren't mathematically likely. They're intentionally exaggerated to make a point, but they don't really pass muster. Sanders isn't going to be up 48/38 for the very simple fact that no one else is likely to get the other 14%.