538 just updated delegate projections, Bernie is plummeting, now under 25% chance to win outright

[Celerity]

I think this might (not sure, but BS was higher earlier today) be the result of Pete dropping out

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[LaurenOlimina]

1. Jesus, Biden fell as well.

[Celerity]

3. yes, let's hope Super Tuesday breaks hard against Bernie

Klobuchar and Bloomberg need to drop out and endorse Joe ASAP.

[honest.abe]

2. Im pretty sure that was the same as earlier today.

He has not factored in Pete's dropping yet.

[Celerity]

5. look at my snapshots, they removed Pete real time

[honest.abe]

6. Yeah, but I believe those numbers didnt change.

I dont think he has rerun the delegate predictor without Pete. I believe all they did was remove Pete's name.

[Celerity]

7. yes, the last update was March 2, at 01 42 CET (my time, Central European Time ie 19 42 EST March 1)

so you are correct

[honest.abe]

8. It will be very interesting to see what happens once Pete out is factored in.

[Celerity]

9. indeed!

[TwilightZone]

10. Your snapshots are the same as the current data.

Pretty sure I looked at it earlier today and Sanders was at 1619. That's where he is now.

They removed Pete, but I don't think they've updated the projections. Also keep in mind that their projections consider that candidates might drop out, and it was pretty clear that Pete would be out soon.

[Celerity]

13. yes, look at the long thread I had, you are correct, but now there is this

Election Update: Buttigieg Dropping Out Isn’t Good For Sanders
And it may make it harder for anyone to reach a delegate majority.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/

Pete Buttigieg’s decision to drop out of the race two days before Super Tuesday has hurt Sen. Bernie Sanders in our primary forecast. Sanders’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates fell from 28 percent to 23 percent. And the likelihood that no candidate gets a majority rose slightly from 59 to 64 percent. Former Vice President Joe Biden’s majority chances were unchanged.

[TwilightZone]

15. Yep, I just posted that below a few minutes ago.

Along with an apology. As I noted below, I could have sworn that the numbers were the same, but they must not have been. Too much poll stuff all blurring together.

[Celerity]

16. it so so damn fluid, and the already cast million plus votes so worry me

[TwilightZone]

19. Yeah, I'm in Texas and reports are that early voting was pretty solid.

Sounds like there's some confusion in CA about what's really in so far, so hard to tell what will happen there. Of course, none of the polls will have time to reflect SC, so we really have no clue what will happen on Tuesday.

[Celerity]

20. CA is going to be a clusterfuck, the Sanders crowd is already going bonkers over the NPP voters

[Sloumeau]

4. Whoa, that is a big drop for Sanders,

and a small drop by Biden.

[LizBeth]

11. Yea. Get behind Biden even if not a number one choice.

[TwilightZone]

12. You were right - he did drop because Pete dropped out.

New update at 538. My apologies, I could have sworn the delegate numbers were the same earlier.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/

[Celerity]

14. lol, after I just spent half the thread admitting I was probably wrong too, lol

I am so confused, rolfmaoooooooooo

[TwilightZone]

17. I noticed that they update different areas at different times.

For example, their summary of Super Tuesday states earlier today still showed Biden only up in one state, but if you went to the page with the individual states, he was up in six and later seven. They eventually updated the summary to reflect the changes, but it was really confusing in the meantime. The former hadn't been updated since the 28th, which is basically ancient history now.

So, maybe we were both right, but just looking at different things. Hell if I know! haha

[Celerity]

18. I wager Nate Silver gets little sleep these days

[Algernon Moncrieff]

21. This dovetails with an analysis I saw on CNN last week

Basically, the theme was that a bunch of the Super Tuesday states (this was before South Carolina, to be fair) have three candidates that are viable in the ~15 - 25% range. Meaning that there are good odds for 3 way splits of the delegates in many of the states, thus raising the odds dramatically that "no one will win." This weekend has been news about Biden. Super Tuesday may very well be news about Mike Bloomberg.