Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBernie dropping like a rock on 538's overall primary forecast
1591 pledged delegates is a big key number
1591 or less for a total and Bernie is under 40%, which is a big psychological barrier if there is no one at 1990 and thus a first ballot winner.
If he rolls into the convention with only, say 39% of the delegates, and Biden is at say 35% (I am NOT saying these will be the totals at all) of the delegates, he will have a FAR harder time making a case than if he was at say, 45% and Biden at 29% At that point, a 45%-29% breakdown in Sanders' favour, it would be basically impossible to deny him the nomination, as the party would tear itself apart and we would lose to Trump even more likely than nominating Sanders would do.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
msongs
(67,441 posts)back him/her on the first ballot
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Dopers_Greed
(2,640 posts)That could be just as bad for us as Sanders clinching it
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)That's how primaries typically work.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
exboyfil
(17,865 posts)What ridiculous claim will he make next week?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
relayerbob
(6,555 posts)to prevent that from happening
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)...a brokered convention.
But we may well see some noticeable shifts in these numbers over the next week.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
delisen
(6,044 posts)Becoming another bullied political party is really not the way to go.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Impossible.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Moderateguy
(945 posts)Hed need Warren, Pete and Amy to release their delegates before the first ballot and hope that 72% vote for him. I dont see Bloomberg or Biden releasing their delegates before the first ballot
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,396 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Moderateguy
(945 posts)And tell them who to vote for, but the delegate is free to choose whoever they want
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,396 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(112,422 posts)before their name can be introduced into nomination? If the candidate fails to do that, then aren't the delegates free to vote for whomever they prefer?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
comradebillyboy
(10,175 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,408 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,396 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)It would definitely help Joe but I really like his hard hitting ads against Trump. I dont think his ads would carry the same weight if he wasnt running.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Theres no evidence that Joe can win a Biden V Sanders race (might change after SC)
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Dem Femme Fatale
(25 posts)Really?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Amishman
(5,559 posts)Getting nothing out of CA would be a huge setback
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
flamingdem
(39,321 posts)I hope they spend more $ there
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Moderateguy
(945 posts)2/3rds of the delegates are awarded on the congressional district level--in order to be viable there you ONLY need to get 15% in that particular district. So for Bernie/Warren to get all of the delegates from California, all the other candidates will have to be at less than 15% at BOTH the statewide and ALL of the 53 Congressional district levels. That is not possible
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
empedocles
(15,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)I think you may be right and what we are seeing now, it appears Bernie may not get there.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)And a welcome one at that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
intheflow
(28,501 posts)Not to mention that Silver leans conservative. I don't trust anything coming out of 538 any more.
https://newrepublic.com/article/155761/fall-nate-silver
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Celerity
(43,500 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,845 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,558 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
melman
(7,681 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided