There will be no brokered convention

[Dem4Life1102]

The news media pushes this every 4 years but it never happens. The convention won't go beyond a first vote. None have since the 50s.

[msongs]

1. who would want candidate so ineffective they couldnt get the first ballot? nt

[PatSeg]

4. True, but everything is different

these days than anything we've ever seen before. After Trump, I'm thinking anything is possible.

[Dem4Life1102]

5. What usually happens in one of the delegate leaders

makes a deal with the 3rd and/or 4th place candidates and they direct their delegates to vote for one of the leaders.

[Moderateguy]

14. Not on the 1st ballot

Pledged delegates mean they are pledged to their candidate on the 1st ballot.

[Dem4Life1102]

23. And candidates can release their delegates

to vote their conscience or direct them to vote for someone else.

[Bucky]

16. Um, not quite how it works

First off, getting a majority from the diverse Democratic delegations on the first ballot is not a measurement skill, but of popularity and the popularity of a candidates ideas

Second off, working a convention and winning coalitions is it extremely important political ability. So if anything, getting nominated off the second ballot would reveal a very real and critical skillset that a candidate needs to govern.

[AGeddy]

2. None of the previous ones had these rules, or this many viable candidates

Or a billionaire with unlimited funds throwing himself into the race.

[Dem4Life1102]

6. That's what they said 4 years ago

with the GOP convention. Didn't happen.

[AGeddy]

9. GOP 4 years ago had winner-take-all states. Dems in 2020 don't.

[Dem4Life1102]

12. Nor did they Democrats in 16 or 08 or 08

[AGeddy]

13. And in those years, Dems had smaller field and different rules regarding Superdelegates

[Dem4Life1102]

21. Like that will make a difference

[empedocles]

3. Important concept. The media frenzy, tends to be self-promoting, then fizzles out.

Like with the many Dem candidates over the last year or so. So many 'surges', so many 'fizzles'.

[First Speaker]

7. Nothing ever happens--until it does.

...a brokered convention would be unusual and sensational. The media class would reach for the smelling salts, at messy, smelly democracy breaking out. But when you consider how many things the past five years that "couldn't" happen have happened...a convention going past the first ballot wouldn't even make the top ten list.

[Dem4Life1102]

8. What things in the last 5 years?

[Laelth]

28. Hear! Hear!

The Titanic was unsinkable ... until it sank.

-Laelth

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

10. The guy they nominated in 1968 didn't run in any of the primaries.

Weird things can happen in weird years.

[HarlanPepper]

18. Agreed.

We should all probably get out of the prediction business.

[The_Counsel]

29. That's Also Why They Have the System They Have Now.

Until '68 EVERY convention was brokered to some extent. Since then, virtually none of them are. The '76 GOP Convention was the last one that was even in doubt after Day One--and that one involved the sitting President....

[thesquanderer]

11. "None have since the 50s" has no bearing on what will happen this time.

But who do you think will get enough delegates to get the nomination on the first vote?

[Dem4Life1102]

24. I have no idea

But I’ve seen the idea of a convention going past a first ballot too many times to take it seriously.

[totodeinhere]

15. I think the most likely scenario is Bernie goes in with a big lead over second

place but not quite a majority. If that happens then one or more of the also ran candidates would probably withdraw and endorse the front runner putting him over the top. They would do this in the interest of party unity knowing that only a united party can beat Trump.

[Moderateguy]

19. You still keep your delegates on the 1st ballot..

Even if you withdraw, drop dead and or diagnosed as patient zero for the coronavirus

[totodeinhere]

22. They can release their delegates if they want to.

Of course the released delegates would not have to follow the lead of the withdrawing candidate and go for the front runner but many probably would.

[Moderateguy]

30. I stand corrected

[Dem4Life1102]

25. Not true

at all. All candidates can release their delegates before the first ballot.

[democrattotheend]

26. Are you sure?

This is the first convention under the new rules, so I don't know that much about how it works.

Despite what she said last night, I could potentially see Elizabeth Warren releasing her delegates if it comes to that, knowing some of them might go to Bernie if she has no chance. But it depends how well Bernie is doing in polls against Trump at that point. If it looks like he might win, she could be the hero and potentially a big influence in his administration if she does that. If it looks like another 1972, she'll probably want to stay in the favor of the party establishment that is eager to take back over after November.

[Dem4Life1102]

31. Yes

[Bucky]

20. The primary system is designed to produce a two way race

I think after next Tuesday we'll know who those two are. Almost certainly Joe & Bernie. And Biden is probably the one candidate Sanders can beat one on one.

But you're right, it'll be resolved before the first ballot. I'll be surprised if it's not all resolved by the end of May

[honest.abe]

17. Normally I would agree with you but this year feels different.

Bloomberg is the wildcard. It all depends how much support he pulls from Biden and how hard he hits Sanders with his ads.

[Aaron Pereira]

27. No doubt. Winning votes and primaries today is the importing thing.

Bernie and his supporters can control that part so that's where the focus should be.