Some caution about SC polling: It often under-rates support from older Black voters

[octoberlib]

Link to tweet

Some caution about SC polling: It often under-rates the candidate with support from older black voters.

Final SC poll margin in 2008: Obama +12
Actual margin: Obama +29

Final poll margin in 2016: Clinton +28
Actual margin: Clinton +48

[Laelth]

1. That's interesting. I wonder why that would be.

You would think that older voters would be over-polled because they're less likely to be working and more likely to have a landline upon which they can be reached when polls are often conducted 6-9 PM.



-Laelth

[honest.abe]

2. Yes, I do believe we are going to be surprised by Biden's margin of victory on Saturday.

Here's my prediction:

Joe: 40%
Sanders: 20%
Warren: 10%
Styer: 10%

Which should propel him to a big Super Tuesday.

[uponit7771]

3. Hmmmmm

[frazzled]

4. I saw an older black SC gentleman interviewed on PBS NewsHour last night

I missed the beginning of the segment, but he was saying something like, "I would have to vote for Sanders if he was the nominee ... but please, don't put me in that position."

I said, "Amen." Expressed my views perfectly.

PS: He was not that old, probably in his 60s.

[TwilightZone]

5. Pollsters generally adjust for demographics, but clearly...

they weren't adjusting enough the past two campaigns.

Interesting.

One of the commenters did have a good point. The field is larger this year than the two prior cycles.

[David__77]

6. I cannot think of an outcome that would surprise me regardless.

...