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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

jg10003

(974 posts)
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 05:43 PM Feb 2020

Why I think Sanders has the best chance of beating trump

1] He appeals to the same anti-establishment frustrations that trump does. That is why in 2016 many trump supporters said they would vote for Sanders, even though they had opposite positions on most issues.

2] Trump exploited people’s frustrations by inflaming their fears, anxieties, and prejudices. Sanders addresses people’s frustrations by giving them hope. Unlike the other candidates, except maybe Warren, Sanders has a message that is more than just “I’m not trump.”

3] Sanders cannot be swift-boated like HRC or Biden. In his long career there hs never been a hint of scandal. His honesty and integrity is acknowledged by all.

4] Focus - Nothing distracts Bernie from his message. Trump is a master of distracting the press and public with trivialities and making the election about his opponent. But Bernie is totally focused on his message, and to smart to fall into any trap set for him. No matter what juvenile insults, lies, and accusations trump makes, Sanders will always stick to his message. If Sanders is the nominee I imagine the political conversation will go something like this:
Reporter: Senator, Trump has said you are a crazy old man. Your response?
Bernie: Medical care is a right not a privilege.
Reporter: Senator, Trump called your wife a “fatty”. What do you say to him?
Bernie: It is time for the top 1 percent to pay their fair share of taxes.
Reporter: Trump claims that your great-grandfather killed Abraham Lincoln.
Bernie: Public college should be tuition free.


5] He has been explaining his brand of socialism for 50 years and is very good at it. We all know that whoever is the nominee, the republicans will say he or she is a socialist. If Biden, Warren, or Buttigige is the nominee they will have to constantly explain why they are not a socialist. This puts them in a defensive position, which is never a good thing. If Sanders is the nominee he will say “yes I am a socialist and this is what I believe...”. And since Sanders has been explaining democratic socialism for 50 years, this puts him in the very position he wants.

6] The cold war has been over for 30 years. An entire generation has grown up without equating democratic socialism with communism and repressive authoritarian regimes.

7] People don’t vote for technocrats like HRC, Gore, and Dukakis. They vote for a person who they believe understands them. Bernie connects with people. People feel that Bernie understands them and wants to help. He gives the impression of a gruff but kind-hearted grandpa who only wants what is best for you.





If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
26 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Why I think Sanders has the best chance of beating trump (Original Post) jg10003 Feb 2020 OP
valid points. evertonfc Feb 2020 #1
Kickin' Faux pas Feb 2020 #2
Three million more people voted for HRC than Trump. shenmue Feb 2020 #3
I was thinking the very same thing. "Technocrat"? George II Feb 2020 #11
A technocrat is someone who concentrates on the details of policy but fails jg10003 Feb 2020 #12
Interesting analysis. Thanks. Doremus Feb 2020 #21
How will he pick up cilla4progress Feb 2020 #4
I agree with some of these points democrattotheend Feb 2020 #5
Good points about the party infrastructure Doremus Feb 2020 #22
Bernie vs Trump makes it a base-vs-base election.... and we lose that dynamic scheming daemons Feb 2020 #6
He has a large indie base Doremus Feb 2020 #23
It is an idea that seems to be pushed into peoples brains katmondoo Feb 2020 #7
Lots of conjecture in this analysis snowybirdie Feb 2020 #8
If that were the case he'd be President today. George II Feb 2020 #9
The middle will not vote for Sanders vs trump Watchfoxheadexplodes Feb 2020 #10
He doesn't have a chance of winning the EC nt doc03 Feb 2020 #13
"anti-establishment" is just another word for "racist" Blue_Tires Feb 2020 #14
You get an "A" for effort. Mike 03 Feb 2020 #15
Thank you for a thoughtful reply jg10003 Feb 2020 #17
Good, that's what I was trying to get at. Mike 03 Feb 2020 #18
These are all excellent points, and they are all consistently ignored by pundits. DanTex Feb 2020 #16
"Too far out there" Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #19
Once the GOP gets through highlighting Sanders' more extreme statements, Trump will likely win in a highplainsdem Feb 2020 #20
I live in the real world and trump would destroy a weak candidate like sanders Gothmog Feb 2020 #24
Why I don't Zolorp Feb 2020 #25
Fair points--but... kevink077 Feb 2020 #26
 

evertonfc

(1,713 posts)
1. valid points.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 05:47 PM
Feb 2020

conservative heads would explode if Sanders was President. lol

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

shenmue

(38,503 posts)
3. Three million more people voted for HRC than Trump.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 05:52 PM
Feb 2020


What's a "technocrat"?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
11. I was thinking the very same thing. "Technocrat"?
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:38 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

jg10003

(974 posts)
12. A technocrat is someone who concentrates on the details of policy but fails
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:41 PM
Feb 2020

to reach people on an emotional level. It has been said that a presidential election is like High School. People vote for the charming class president (Bill Clinton), the cool guy who gets along with everyone (Obama), and the party dude (Bush 43). But they don’t vote for the smartest kid, the one who reminds the teacher to give homework.

1988 - Dukakis campaigned on policy. Bush Sr. campaigned on the Pledge of Allegiance, the ACLU, and exploiting racism.
1992 - Based on an obscure textbook definition of "recession", Bush said there was no recession. Clinton said "I feel your pain".
2000 - Gore was the ultimate policy wonk. Bush Jr. was the guy you wanted to have a beer with.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Doremus

(7,261 posts)
21. Interesting analysis. Thanks.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 08:52 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

cilla4progress

(24,589 posts)
4. How will he pick up
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 05:56 PM
Feb 2020

the moderates?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
5. I agree with some of these points
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 05:58 PM
Feb 2020

Especially # 1, 4, and 6. I disagree with # 3 though - they find a way to swiftboat everyone. Look at what they are doing to Biden with this stupid Ukraine thing. He's never had a hint of corruption either, but they are making his son serving on the board of Burisma into the new E-mailgate.

I will say that around April 2016, my now husband, who is a right-leaning libertarian, and several of his friends with similar views had a laugh realizing that of the three candidates in the race at that point (Trump, Hillary and Bernie) they all found Bernie Sanders, the self-identified socialist, to be the least offensive of the three.

That said, my concerns about his electability are actually less about his views (although I am concerned about some pretty radical things he said in the past that will be used against him) and more about how many bridges he has burned with the party establishment - not just the last sitting Democratic president and the last Democratic nominee, but the rank and file activists and local party chairs whose support he will need to get elected. I am concerned that if he wins the nomination, especially if he isn't polling well against Trump at some point, TPTB in the Democratic Party go through the motions of supporting him but basically write off the presidential election as a lost cause and focus down-ballot. Bernie has pissed a lot of people off with his relentless attacks on the party, and they won't forget come November. FWIW, I think some of the reforms he pushed for and got in the primary process are a good thing, but he took it too far in 2016, making too many people believe that he earned the nomination and was cheated when that's not what happened.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Doremus

(7,261 posts)
22. Good points about the party infrastructure
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 08:54 PM
Feb 2020

I was worried about that too but it seems Bernie has an extensive ground operation so it's less of an issue than it could be.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

scheming daemons

(25,487 posts)
6. Bernie vs Trump makes it a base-vs-base election.... and we lose that dynamic
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 05:59 PM
Feb 2020

Democrats only win when we get wide swaths of the middle.

And Bernie can't get those.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Doremus

(7,261 posts)
23. He has a large indie base
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 08:56 PM
Feb 2020

Plus no matter who if it's blue, right?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

katmondoo

(6,454 posts)
7. It is an idea that seems to be pushed into peoples brains
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:01 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

snowybirdie

(5,191 posts)
8. Lots of conjecture in this analysis
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:03 PM
Feb 2020

No swiftboating! Ha tRump is a master of that. I choose my candidate by asking myself who will best right the wrongs of the current President.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
9. If that were the case he'd be President today.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:15 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Watchfoxheadexplodes

(3,496 posts)
10. The middle will not vote for Sanders vs trump
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:23 PM
Feb 2020

They just won't

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

doc03

(35,151 posts)
13. He doesn't have a chance of winning the EC nt
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 07:10 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
14. "anti-establishment" is just another word for "racist"
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 07:15 PM
Feb 2020

you do realize that, right?

And for FIVE years I've been asking someone, anyone to explain exactly what makes a politician "establishment" and why is Sanders somehow magically better than that?

Not to burst your bubble, but if Sanders had a snowball's chance to actually WIN and not just be a spoiler again, Republicans wouldn't be pimping him as a candidate. Hell, Trump would be asking Moscow for dirt on Sanders instead of Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Mike 03

(16,616 posts)
15. You get an "A" for effort.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 07:24 PM
Feb 2020

Your attempts to hit this issue head on are appreciated.

#1 and #2 are strong points.

The White House supposedly has a two foot thick opposition file on Bernie Sanders. I think they can Swift Boat him.

#4 Bernie is focused, and Trump has attention deficit disorder. Okay. Maybe there are some possibilities there.

#5 If I were Bernie, I would go with Chris Hedges' argument that our party has moved so far right that we're no longer able to see that what we consider outlandish socialist ideas are really mainstream in most first world countries, rather than wrestle with the word "socialist"

#6 Trump and company will teach an entire new generation to hate socialists.

#7 This one I strongly disagree with because those candidates failed for very different reasons. What those candidates have in common were varying degrees of social awkwardness (in the opinions of others, not really me) I would think a lot of people would put Bernie in the same category. He is standoffish. He's the one candidate I would not feel comfortable approaching in a casual setting.

But your post is a serious effort. It deserved a reply.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

jg10003

(974 posts)
17. Thank you for a thoughtful reply
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 07:46 PM
Feb 2020

Bernie has made the arguement you refer to regarding #5. He often says that his ideas are within the democratic tradition of FDR and LBJ

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Mike 03

(16,616 posts)
18. Good, that's what I was trying to get at.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 08:14 PM
Feb 2020

We're really lost track in this country of what is "far left". It's pretty ridiculous.

Thanks a lot for your post. This question gets asked a lot, but few people tackle it like you did.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
16. These are all excellent points, and they are all consistently ignored by pundits.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 07:34 PM
Feb 2020

It's ironic, really, that establishment pundits and journalists try to pretend there's no such thing as the "establishment". Reminds me of the MSNBC guy who tried to pretend that Bloomberg is no more of a plutocrat than Bernie because both of them are millionaires.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
19. "Too far out there"
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 08:39 PM
Feb 2020

I keep going back to that phrase I heard several times from old white folks on a shuttle bus coming back from an LPGA golf tournament in Naples last November. They were willing to consider Democrats above Trump but everyone besides Biden and Bloomberg was dismissed as, "too far out there," meaning too liberal.

Those are the same voters who dismissed Andrew Gillum vs. Ron DeSantis last November, despite a poll lead for Gillum and a massively favorable situational landscape. The specifics were 46% of Floridians in the exit poll deeming Gillum too liberal for the state. I posted a related thread immediately that night because I had never seen anything comparable to that number while following political math since 1992. Then later I noticed that 42% of Georgians dismissed Stacey Abrams as too liberal for the state.

There are always indications in the midterms. I have no idea how we ignore that 46 and 42. It would attach to Sanders and also to Warren. They would be branded the easiest. It would be non-stop Socialist all day long. You would hear that word in coffee shops and bus stops and everywhere internet. I've mentioned many times that the GOP has intentionally back burnered that word for the past 6 months or so since they don't want to wear it out before full unleash during the general election.

It will be used on anyone we nominate but make no mistake it attaches and limits some more than others.

Elections are won based on preference, not turnout. I'll continue to repeat that sentence, as I have here since 2002. Turnout is always laughably overrated compared to raw preference. I don't see how we win the crucial swing voters if Bernie Sanders is the nominee. It would be a prideful loss, just like I remember my civics teacher in 7th grade never regretted his year-long support George McGovern in 1972 and we've still got Floridians insisting that nominating Andrew Gillum above boring moderate Gwen Graham was somehow the proper move.

Gillum motivated us, after all. Yes, I remember. Very rousing articulate speeches as all those scared swing voters calmly waited to vote against him, even if it meant supporting a joke like Ron DeSantis.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

highplainsdem

(48,731 posts)
20. Once the GOP gets through highlighting Sanders' more extreme statements, Trump will likely win in a
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 08:44 PM
Feb 2020

landslide, and the GOP will almost certainly regain control of the House and get a larger majority in the Senate.

And it will probably take the Democratic Party a couple of elections to recover from stumbling over that self-described-socialist cliff.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
24. I live in the real world and trump would destroy a weak candidate like sanders
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 08:56 PM
Feb 2020

I am very worried about down ballot races. sanders is a very weak candidate and would be easy for trump to destroy. In addition to the well written 101 page memorandum with oppo on sanders with a 1000 pages of backup from the Clinton campaign trump has his own oppo file on sanders that would destroy such a weak and divisive candidate like sanders.




trump had a two foot thick book of oppo research on Sanders http://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044

They ignored the fact that Sanders had not yet faced a real campaign against him. Clinton was in the delicate position of dealing with a large portion of voters who treated Sanders more like the Messiah than just another candidate. She was playing the long game—attacking Sanders strongly enough to win, but gently enough to avoid alienating his supporters. Given her overwhelming support from communities of color—for example, about 70 percent of African-American voters cast their ballot for her—Clinton had a firewall that would be difficult for Sanders to breach....

So what would have happened when Sanders hit a real opponent, someone who did not care about alienating the young college voters in his base? I have seen the opposition book assembled by Republicans for Sanders, and it was brutal. The Republicans would have torn him apart. And while Sanders supporters might delude themselves into believing that they could have defended him against all of this, there is a name for politicians who play defense all the time: losers....

The Republicans had at least four other damning Sanders videos (I don’t know what they showed), and the opposition research folder was almost 2-feet thick. (The section calling him a communist with connections to Castro alone would have cost him Florida.) In other words, the belief that Sanders would have walked into the White House based on polls taken before anyone really attacked him is a delusion built on a scaffolding of political ignorance.

sanders was such a weak primary candidate that the Clinton campaign did not use its oppo but trump would have fun destroying such a weak candidate like sanders

I will vote for the nominee of the party but I fear that the nomination of sanders will lead to a Speaker Kevin McCarthy
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Zolorp

(1,115 posts)
25. Why I don't
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 08:59 PM
Feb 2020

HE was a Communist when I had joined the army to fight the Communists. He sided with Russia when I was willing to put my life on the line to defeat Russia.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

kevink077

(365 posts)
26. Fair points--but...
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 09:05 PM
Feb 2020

I suspect Bernie will struggle with independents in the rust belt in a decent economic time. They will say “ we don’t like trump but Bernie is risky for my 401k”. Bernie would win the popular vote but we need to win the Electoral College..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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