Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumAnalysis of why picking a moderate candidate is anything but safe.
The prevailing argument about electability is all wrong. Dems win when they fire up their base, with people like Obama (and this year, Liz or Bernie). They lose when they try to aim for the meek middle, believing they can pick up swing voters, while deprecating the issues that excite people and bring them to the polls (Kerry, Gore, Hillary).
As she sees it, it isnt quite right to refer to a Democratic or Republican base. Rather, there are Democratic and Republican coalitions, the first made of people of color, college-educated whites and people in metropolitan areas; the second, mostly noncollege whites, with a smattering of religious- minded voters, financiers and people in business, largely in rural and exurban counties.
In the polarized era, the outcome isnt really about the candidates. What matters is what percentage of the electorate is Republican and Republican leaners, and what percentage is Democratic and Democratic leaners, and how they get activated, she said.
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[S]he maintains that actual swing voters are a small percentage of the result, even in counties where the vote swing is as large as Wasserman describes. Dont talk to people in the bleachers of rallies; check the voter file, she says. It would be one thing if that county had 100,000 people in it who voted in 2012, and then it was the same 100,000 who voted in 2016, but that is not what is happening, she says. The pool of who shows up changes.
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But still, the results bore out her theory: For Democrats to win, they need to fire up Democratic-minded voters. The Blue Dogs who tried to narrow the difference between themselves and Trump did worse, overall, than the Stacey Abramses and Beto ORourkes, whose progressive ideas and inspirational campaigns drove turnout in their own parties and brought them to the cusp of victory.
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I am arguing radical shit, OK? Bitecofer told me over a series of phone calls over the past several weeks in her Virginia office. What I am saying is that almost all of this shit is set in stone for three years, that almost none of the shit that people are hanging onto, in terms of daily articles, or polls, or the economy or incumbency or ideology is really worth that much.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Faux pas
(14,583 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
empedocles
(15,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Fiendish Thingy
(15,369 posts)Focus on maximizing turnout of existing anti-Trump voters.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
empedocles
(15,751 posts)There was no 'blue wave' of blue enthusiasts in that winning equation.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Locrian
(4,522 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jayschool2013
(2,309 posts)But wasn't Obama also a "centrist" politically? Of course, he excited the base and attracted new voters, but it wasn't primarily about his policies, it was about his ability to fire people up. You could describe Bill Clinton in the same way.
So I hope no one discounts our "centrists" because Hillary, Kerry and Gore were cheated out of the presidency.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)but he didn't campaign that way. He campaigned as an agent of change.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thanks.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,731 posts)guarantee another electoral college loss even with a popular vote win.
"I am arguing radical shit..."
No, she's arguing nonsense.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,369 posts)Predicting the specific victories of all but one of the 41 seats that Dems won. Her model is a paradigm shift from political predictions as usual, and turns conventional wisdom on its head.
Dems ignore her theory at their own peril.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
kydemo
(34 posts)1. African Americans are not typically progressive and are not part of the radical. base the author is saying they are.
2. Barack Obama was not a progressive.
3. No matter how exciting and how close Beto, Stacey and Andrew Gillum came to winning,, the fact is they all lost and the. "mushy middle" democrats won in 2018.
4. I would also argue that Beto, Stacey and Andrew. were not nearly out there progressives. like Bernie and Warren.
5 Bernie has undeniable excitement from a minority of democrats. He could possibly win against Trump because of democrats like me who do hot line him but will vote for him against. Trump. But the thing that. NEEDS. TO. BE REMEMBERED. IS THAT HE WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR. ALL DOWN TICKET. RACES TO WIN FOR THE FORSEEABLE FITURE The progressive revolution will. be over. Middle of the road voters will not be able to vote for candidates who are tied. to Fidel Castro.and the former Soviet Union. That has nothing to do with progressivism but Bernie.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...of critiquing the conventional wisdom, including the argument put forth in the article by Wasserman.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided