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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Jirel

(1,993 posts)
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 12:34 PM Feb 2020

Analysis of why picking a moderate candidate is anything but safe.

The prevailing argument about “electability” is all wrong. Dems win when they fire up their base, with people like Obama (and this year, Liz or Bernie). They lose when they try to aim for the meek middle, believing they can pick up swing voters, while deprecating the issues that excite people and bring them to the polls (Kerry, Gore, Hillary).


As she sees it, it isn’t quite right to refer to a Democratic or Republican “base.” Rather, there are Democratic and Republican coalitions, the first made of people of color, college-educated whites and people in metropolitan areas; the second, mostly noncollege whites, with a smattering of religious- minded voters, financiers and people in business, largely in rural and exurban counties.

“In the polarized era, the outcome isn’t really about the candidates. What matters is what percentage of the electorate is Republican and Republican leaners, and what percentage is Democratic and Democratic leaners, and how they get activated,” she said.
...
[S]he maintains that actual swing voters are a small percentage of the result, even in counties where the vote swing is as large as Wasserman describes. Don’t talk to people in the bleachers of rallies; check the voter file, she says. “It would be one thing if that county had 100,000 people in it who voted in 2012, and then it was the same 100,000 who voted in 2016, but that is not what is happening,” she says. “The pool of who shows up changes.”
...
But still, the results bore out her theory: For Democrats to win, they need to fire up Democratic-minded voters. The Blue Dogs who tried to narrow the difference between themselves and Trump did worse, overall, than the Stacey Abramses and Beto O’Rourkes, whose progressive ideas and inspirational campaigns drove turnout in their own parties and brought them to the cusp of victory.
...
“I am arguing radical shit, OK?” Bitecofer told me over a series of phone calls over the past several weeks in her Virginia office. “What I am saying is that almost all of this shit is set in stone for three years, that almost none of the shit that people are hanging onto, in terms of daily articles, or polls, or the economy or incumbency or ideology is really worth that much.”



https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Analysis of why picking a moderate candidate is anything but safe. (Original Post) Jirel Feb 2020 OP
Kickin' Faux pas Feb 2020 #1
What was the lesson of 2018? The election of Speaker Pelosi? empedocles Feb 2020 #2
The lesson was: don't waste your time trying to flip Trump voters Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #8
The key was 43 red seats flipped. Those new Dems are carefully very moderate. empedocles Feb 2020 #11
kick - finally someone gets that this isn't the 2008 / 2012 election n/t Locrian Feb 2020 #3
Thanks for the read jayschool2013 Feb 2020 #4
yes he was ibegurpard Feb 2020 #6
+1 jayschool2013 Feb 2020 #9
An academic with a very high opinion of herself, who's making an argument for a strategy that would highplainsdem Feb 2020 #5
Bitecofer was the most accurate predictor of the 2018 Blue Wave Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #7
Much to be sifted here kydemo Feb 2020 #10
Everyone should read the whole piece. Bitecofer does a good job... Garrett78 Feb 2020 #12
 

empedocles

(15,751 posts)
2. What was the lesson of 2018? The election of Speaker Pelosi?
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 12:44 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Fiendish Thingy

(15,369 posts)
8. The lesson was: don't waste your time trying to flip Trump voters
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:06 PM
Feb 2020

Focus on maximizing turnout of existing anti-Trump voters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

empedocles

(15,751 posts)
11. The key was 43 red seats flipped. Those new Dems are carefully very moderate.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:16 PM
Feb 2020

There was no 'blue wave' of blue enthusiasts in that winning equation.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Locrian

(4,522 posts)
3. kick - finally someone gets that this isn't the 2008 / 2012 election n/t
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 12:44 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

jayschool2013

(2,309 posts)
4. Thanks for the read
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 12:45 PM
Feb 2020

But wasn't Obama also a "centrist" politically? Of course, he excited the base and attracted new voters, but it wasn't primarily about his policies, it was about his ability to fire people up. You could describe Bill Clinton in the same way.

So I hope no one discounts our "centrists" because Hillary, Kerry and Gore were cheated out of the presidency.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)
6. yes he was
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:02 PM
Feb 2020

but he didn't campaign that way. He campaigned as an agent of change.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

highplainsdem

(48,731 posts)
5. An academic with a very high opinion of herself, who's making an argument for a strategy that would
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 12:47 PM
Feb 2020

guarantee another electoral college loss even with a popular vote win.

"I am arguing radical shit..."

No, she's arguing nonsense.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Fiendish Thingy

(15,369 posts)
7. Bitecofer was the most accurate predictor of the 2018 Blue Wave
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:04 PM
Feb 2020

Predicting the specific victories of all but one of the 41 seats that Dems won. Her model is a paradigm shift from political predictions as usual, and turns conventional wisdom on its head.

Dems ignore her theory at their own peril.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

kydemo

(34 posts)
10. Much to be sifted here
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:16 PM
Feb 2020

1. African Americans are not typically progressive and are not part of the radical. base the author is saying they are.

2. Barack Obama was not a progressive.

3. No matter how exciting and how close Beto, Stacey and Andrew Gillum came to winning,, the fact is they all lost and the. "mushy middle" democrats won in 2018.

4. I would also argue that Beto, Stacey and Andrew. were not nearly out there progressives. like Bernie and Warren.

5 Bernie has undeniable excitement from a minority of democrats. He could possibly win against Trump because of democrats like me who do hot line him but will vote for him against. Trump. But the thing that. NEEDS. TO. BE REMEMBERED. IS THAT HE WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR. ALL DOWN TICKET. RACES TO WIN FOR THE FORSEEABLE FITURE The progressive revolution will. be over. Middle of the road voters will not be able to vote for candidates who are tied. to Fidel Castro.and the former Soviet Union. That has nothing to do with progressivism but Bernie.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
12. Everyone should read the whole piece. Bitecofer does a good job...
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:34 PM
Feb 2020

...of critiquing the conventional wisdom, including the argument put forth in the article by Wasserman.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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