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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:32 PM Feb 2020

Yes, Iowa matters. No, Bloomberg is not a contender.

Caucuses are disenfranchising and should be banned. And we shouldn't start with 2 of the whitest states in the US. But those saying Iowa doesn't matter are being ridiculous. Generally speaking, Iowa and New Hampshire both have a big impact on the narrative. And narrative matters...it matters a lot. That said, last night's fiasco certainly dampens the impact Iowa will have this time around. And, with any luck, every remaining caucus state will go to a primary and we won't start with Iowa ever again. Not holding my breath, though.

Regarding all the Bloomberg posts, WTF! I don't care how much he spends, he will not end up with the most delegates. Not even close. Even if the nominee is neither Biden nor Sanders, I'm confident it won't be Mike fucking Bloomberg. Good grief.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
38 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Yes, Iowa matters. No, Bloomberg is not a contender. (Original Post) Garrett78 Feb 2020 OP
It only matters until the next primary superceeds it still_one Feb 2020 #1
Iowa and New Hampshire always have an outsized influence on the following contests. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #5
It will be forgotten after Super Tuesday, and I believe that the top 5 candidates will see it still_one Feb 2020 #7
The fiasco will be forgotten, but my point is that the narrative that comes out of IA and NH... Garrett78 Feb 2020 #16
Bloomberg will be the one left standing ... left-of-center2012 Feb 2020 #2
Yep. With Sanders ascending and Joe faltering, Bloomberg becomes the obvious moderate stopbush Feb 2020 #4
If Biden doesn't do at least third next week, I'll be flipping over to Bloomberg after SC. Zolorp Feb 2020 #13
Tell me how Bloomberg wins a majority of delegates. That isn't going to happen. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #6
+++ still_one Feb 2020 #8
Dropping about $200 million on Super Tuesday Zolorp Feb 2020 #14
Money doesn't equate to votes/delegates. This Bloomberg talk is nuts. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #20
Yes, money does equate to votes, and votes equates to delegates. Zolorp Feb 2020 #21
Read one of the many studies that have demonstrated that you're wrong. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #22
Oh yeah? Link those studies Zolorp Feb 2020 #23
Fine, I'll do the legwork. Here's one: Garrett78 Feb 2020 #24
Irrelevent Zolorp Feb 2020 #26
You asked for a study and got it; then blew off his questions Bradshaw3 Feb 2020 #30
I'm still waiting for proof Zolorp Feb 2020 #31
He needs to do very well on Super Tuesday. stopbush Feb 2020 #15
the bigger issue isn't caucuses or not at all. the issue is this primary system we have is Kurt V. Feb 2020 #3
Two weeks is too short. still_one Feb 2020 #9
why? Kurt V. Feb 2020 #10
Because they need to be vetted at least for 3 months in my opinion still_one Feb 2020 #12
They've been vetted since summer tho. Kurt V. Feb 2020 #18
I understand our point Kurt, but i think putting the candidates in full campaign still_one Feb 2020 #32
I agree. nt Blue_true Feb 2020 #35
There are all sorts of ways to do things differently, but caucuses need to go. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #11
i like this also. the point is we need an overhaul. Kurt V. Feb 2020 #17
We do. Many of us have been singing that song for a long, long time. Don't hold your breath. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #34
Please. Anyone with $50+ billion that he or she is willing to spend is a contender. n/t Laelth Feb 2020 #19
Buying ads isn't enough. Money doesn't equate to votes/delegates. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #25
Ask me that question after Super Tuesday calguy Feb 2020 #27
LOL, after Super Tuesday. That defeats the purpose. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #28
Bloomberg is starting to get crowds on stops. Blue_true Feb 2020 #36
I agree that his money alone is not enough, but he was the Mayor of New York. Laelth Feb 2020 #37
Funny you should say that bc Iowa just proved that it doesn't matter THAT much... Vivienne235729 Feb 2020 #29
Clearly, as I already said, Iowa's impact this year has been dampened. In general, though... Garrett78 Feb 2020 #33
Saying it here and now...I won't vote for Bloomberg pecosbob Feb 2020 #38
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
1. It only matters until the next primary superceeds it
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:34 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
5. Iowa and New Hampshire always have an outsized influence on the following contests.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:39 PM
Feb 2020

That's why it's not uncommon to see candidates drop out after Iowa.

Last night's fiasco, though, changes things somewhat. There's a big difference between getting undisputed results during primetime on election night and what we're experiencing this year. This is an absolute shitshow. The Iowa Democratic Party is a laughingstock.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
7. It will be forgotten after Super Tuesday, and I believe that the top 5 candidates will see it
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:44 PM
Feb 2020

through Super Tuesday this time.

It will be after Super Tuesday when I think we will see candidates dropping out.

However, agree with you response 110%


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
16. The fiasco will be forgotten, but my point is that the narrative that comes out of IA and NH...
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:00 PM
Feb 2020

...always makes a big difference. To say Iowa doesn't matter, as many posts have claimed, is absurd and not historically accurate.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
2. Bloomberg will be the one left standing ...
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:37 PM
Feb 2020

Bloomberg will be the one left standing to pick the pieces,
after the other candidates finish their 'circular firing squad'.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

stopbush

(24,378 posts)
4. Yep. With Sanders ascending and Joe faltering, Bloomberg becomes the obvious moderate
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:39 PM
Feb 2020

choice.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Zolorp

(1,115 posts)
13. If Biden doesn't do at least third next week, I'll be flipping over to Bloomberg after SC.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:58 PM
Feb 2020

Gotta give him a chance in his firewall, though.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
6. Tell me how Bloomberg wins a majority of delegates. That isn't going to happen.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:41 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Zolorp

(1,115 posts)
14. Dropping about $200 million on Super Tuesday
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:59 PM
Feb 2020

Should wrap things up nicely. Super Tuesday is an air game, not a ground game, and only Bloomberg has the cash to pull that off.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
20. Money doesn't equate to votes/delegates. This Bloomberg talk is nuts.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:06 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Zolorp

(1,115 posts)
21. Yes, money does equate to votes, and votes equates to delegates.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:08 PM
Feb 2020

Saying otherwise is nuts in the 21st century.

Did you see my thread about the homophobe who voted mayor Pete then found out he is gay? Much of the electorate get 100% of their voter information from commercials on TV and swaying that percentage is all it takes.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
22. Read one of the many studies that have demonstrated that you're wrong.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:13 PM
Feb 2020

Sure, money matters. But the correlation between spending and winning delegates isn't as strong as you think.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Zolorp

(1,115 posts)
23. Oh yeah? Link those studies
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:14 PM
Feb 2020

Waiting....

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
24. Fine, I'll do the legwork. Here's one:
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:29 PM
Feb 2020
http://theconversation.com/money-in-elections-doesnt-mean-what-you-think-it-does-104452 (scroll down a ways)

And the Freakonomics authors famously wrote about this issue.

Also, there's a big difference between raising a lot of money via donations and spending one's own money. If someone has raised a lot money via small donations, it's safe to say that person has a lot of support. But simply being a billionaire says no such thing. Sure, buying ads helps, and there being millions of ignorant people helps. But Bloomberg winning the Democratic Party nomination ain't happening.

It's all about delegate math. Show me how Bloomberg hypothetically and realistically ends up with a majority of delegates. Where do you see him winning or at least walking away with a large number of delegates on Super Tuesday?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Zolorp

(1,115 posts)
26. Irrelevent
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:55 PM
Feb 2020

That is about money spent by Democrats compared to Republicans. Apples and oranges, this is about primaries.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Bradshaw3

(7,455 posts)
30. You asked for a study and got it; then blew off his questions
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:34 PM
Feb 2020

Don't ask for proof if you are only going to reciprocate with unsubstaniated opinion.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Zolorp

(1,115 posts)
31. I'm still waiting for proof
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:35 PM
Feb 2020

HE did not submit a peer reviewed study.

His link has no bearing on spending money in primaries and caucuses.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

stopbush

(24,378 posts)
15. He needs to do very well on Super Tuesday.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:00 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Kurt V.

(5,624 posts)
3. the bigger issue isn't caucuses or not at all. the issue is this primary system we have is
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:39 PM
Feb 2020

Antiquated. The whole thing.
1. shorten it to two weeks
2. set a declare by date.
3. Results in 2 days after each.

but institutional failure seems to be the standard in the 21st century.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
9. Two weeks is too short.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:45 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
12. Because they need to be vetted at least for 3 months in my opinion
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:57 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Kurt V.

(5,624 posts)
18. They've been vetted since summer tho.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:02 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
32. I understand our point Kurt, but i think putting the candidates in full campaign
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:36 PM
Feb 2020

mode in the primaries demonstrates their endurance and ability to hold up in a GE

Two weeks is too short for that in my view.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
11. There are all sorts of ways to do things differently, but caucuses need to go.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:56 PM
Feb 2020

Many people are unable or unwilling to take part in a time-consuming, public spectacle.

I've advocated for starting with 2 or 3 states that reflect our electorate demographically, such as Illinois and Arizona. Then, have a Super Tuesday with 8-10 states a few weeks later. And then have all the rest of the states vote a month after that. Candidates need time to campaign in all the states, and those with less funding and less name recognition deserve a chance to compete.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Kurt V.

(5,624 posts)
17. i like this also. the point is we need an overhaul.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:01 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
34. We do. Many of us have been singing that song for a long, long time. Don't hold your breath.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 11:06 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Laelth

(32,017 posts)
19. Please. Anyone with $50+ billion that he or she is willing to spend is a contender. n/t
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:03 PM
Feb 2020

-Laelth

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
25. Buying ads isn't enough. Money doesn't equate to votes/delegates.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:43 PM
Feb 2020

Show me, with delegate math, a realistic path to the nomination for Bloomberg. Where is he going to win?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

calguy

(5,225 posts)
27. Ask me that question after Super Tuesday
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:59 PM
Feb 2020

Until then none of us really know anything despite what think we might know.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
28. LOL, after Super Tuesday. That defeats the purpose.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:05 PM
Feb 2020

All these "Bloomberg can win" people should be able to demonstrate a path to the nomination using delegate math. Where is he going to win on Super Tuesday?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
36. Bloomberg is starting to get crowds on stops.
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 11:31 PM
Feb 2020

I believe that he is being the most strategic by far. The only other than comes close is Buttegieg.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Laelth

(32,017 posts)
37. I agree that his money alone is not enough, but he was the Mayor of New York.
Wed Feb 5, 2020, 12:40 PM
Feb 2020

He's currently gaining in the polls, and the convention is a ways off yet. Anything can happen (especially if you have a fortune that you're willing to spend to make it happen).

We shall see what we see.

-Laelth

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Vivienne235729

(3,373 posts)
29. Funny you should say that bc Iowa just proved that it doesn't matter THAT much...
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:19 PM
Feb 2020

...thus proving Bloomberg's point. I'm not voting for Bberg at this point but to say he is not a contender is sheer folly. If anything, I think it's the opposite. He's got a whole lot more millions to blow through yet and everything he has done has been spot on.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
33. Clearly, as I already said, Iowa's impact this year has been dampened. In general, though...
Tue Feb 4, 2020, 11:05 PM
Feb 2020

...it's foolish and historically inaccurate to say Iowa doesn't matter (and even this year it's not meaningless). IA and NH always have an outsized influence on the narrative. And, usually, a candidate drops out after Iowa--that wouldn't happen if it didn't mean anything. In 2016 it was O'Malley. In 2008 it was Biden and Dodd. In 2004 it was Gephardt. And so on.

There's a reason why, outside of the DU bubble, the consensus is that Biden benefits from the mess that is Iowa (while the wind is somewhat taken out of the Buttigieg and Sanders sails). A prime time, undisputed announcement of the results with Biden finishing a distant 4th would have been far more damaging than what we're seeing with the absolute shitshow put on by the Iowa Democratic Party. It's 24 hours later, we only have partial results, what results we do have will be questioned (right or wrong), and nobody walks away with great momentum. As a result, Biden's odds of finishing 2nd in New Hampshire are greater than they would be otherwise. He may end up 3rd or 4th anyway, but the Iowa chaos boosts his chances. 2nd in NH and 1st or 2nd in NV will help him maintain frontrunner status. Not because IA, NH and NV produce a ton of delegates, but because - again - the media narrative matters...a lot!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

pecosbob

(7,511 posts)
38. Saying it here and now...I won't vote for Bloomberg
Wed Feb 5, 2020, 02:15 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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