Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumYes, Iowa matters. No, Bloomberg is not a contender.
Caucuses are disenfranchising and should be banned. And we shouldn't start with 2 of the whitest states in the US. But those saying Iowa doesn't matter are being ridiculous. Generally speaking, Iowa and New Hampshire both have a big impact on the narrative. And narrative matters...it matters a lot. That said, last night's fiasco certainly dampens the impact Iowa will have this time around. And, with any luck, every remaining caucus state will go to a primary and we won't start with Iowa ever again. Not holding my breath, though.
Regarding all the Bloomberg posts, WTF! I don't care how much he spends, he will not end up with the most delegates. Not even close. Even if the nominee is neither Biden nor Sanders, I'm confident it won't be Mike fucking Bloomberg. Good grief.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)That's why it's not uncommon to see candidates drop out after Iowa.
Last night's fiasco, though, changes things somewhat. There's a big difference between getting undisputed results during primetime on election night and what we're experiencing this year. This is an absolute shitshow. The Iowa Democratic Party is a laughingstock.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)through Super Tuesday this time.
It will be after Super Tuesday when I think we will see candidates dropping out.
However, agree with you response 110%
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...always makes a big difference. To say Iowa doesn't matter, as many posts have claimed, is absurd and not historically accurate.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)Bloomberg will be the one left standing to pick the pieces,
after the other candidates finish their 'circular firing squad'.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopbush
(24,378 posts)choice.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Zolorp
(1,115 posts)Gotta give him a chance in his firewall, though.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Zolorp
(1,115 posts)Should wrap things up nicely. Super Tuesday is an air game, not a ground game, and only Bloomberg has the cash to pull that off.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Zolorp
(1,115 posts)Saying otherwise is nuts in the 21st century.
Did you see my thread about the homophobe who voted mayor Pete then found out he is gay? Much of the electorate get 100% of their voter information from commercials on TV and swaying that percentage is all it takes.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Sure, money matters. But the correlation between spending and winning delegates isn't as strong as you think.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Zolorp
(1,115 posts)Waiting....
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And the Freakonomics authors famously wrote about this issue.
Also, there's a big difference between raising a lot of money via donations and spending one's own money. If someone has raised a lot money via small donations, it's safe to say that person has a lot of support. But simply being a billionaire says no such thing. Sure, buying ads helps, and there being millions of ignorant people helps. But Bloomberg winning the Democratic Party nomination ain't happening.
It's all about delegate math. Show me how Bloomberg hypothetically and realistically ends up with a majority of delegates. Where do you see him winning or at least walking away with a large number of delegates on Super Tuesday?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Zolorp
(1,115 posts)That is about money spent by Democrats compared to Republicans. Apples and oranges, this is about primaries.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradshaw3
(7,455 posts)Don't ask for proof if you are only going to reciprocate with unsubstaniated opinion.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Zolorp
(1,115 posts)HE did not submit a peer reviewed study.
His link has no bearing on spending money in primaries and caucuses.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopbush
(24,378 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)Antiquated. The whole thing.
1. shorten it to two weeks
2. set a declare by date.
3. Results in 2 days after each.
but institutional failure seems to be the standard in the 21st century.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)mode in the primaries demonstrates their endurance and ability to hold up in a GE
Two weeks is too short for that in my view.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Many people are unable or unwilling to take part in a time-consuming, public spectacle.
I've advocated for starting with 2 or 3 states that reflect our electorate demographically, such as Illinois and Arizona. Then, have a Super Tuesday with 8-10 states a few weeks later. And then have all the rest of the states vote a month after that. Candidates need time to campaign in all the states, and those with less funding and less name recognition deserve a chance to compete.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Show me, with delegate math, a realistic path to the nomination for Bloomberg. Where is he going to win?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
calguy
(5,225 posts)Until then none of us really know anything despite what think we might know.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)All these "Bloomberg can win" people should be able to demonstrate a path to the nomination using delegate math. Where is he going to win on Super Tuesday?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)I believe that he is being the most strategic by far. The only other than comes close is Buttegieg.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laelth
(32,017 posts)He's currently gaining in the polls, and the convention is a ways off yet. Anything can happen (especially if you have a fortune that you're willing to spend to make it happen).
We shall see what we see.
-Laelth
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Vivienne235729
(3,373 posts)...thus proving Bloomberg's point. I'm not voting for Bberg at this point but to say he is not a contender is sheer folly. If anything, I think it's the opposite. He's got a whole lot more millions to blow through yet and everything he has done has been spot on.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...it's foolish and historically inaccurate to say Iowa doesn't matter (and even this year it's not meaningless). IA and NH always have an outsized influence on the narrative. And, usually, a candidate drops out after Iowa--that wouldn't happen if it didn't mean anything. In 2016 it was O'Malley. In 2008 it was Biden and Dodd. In 2004 it was Gephardt. And so on.
There's a reason why, outside of the DU bubble, the consensus is that Biden benefits from the mess that is Iowa (while the wind is somewhat taken out of the Buttigieg and Sanders sails). A prime time, undisputed announcement of the results with Biden finishing a distant 4th would have been far more damaging than what we're seeing with the absolute shitshow put on by the Iowa Democratic Party. It's 24 hours later, we only have partial results, what results we do have will be questioned (right or wrong), and nobody walks away with great momentum. As a result, Biden's odds of finishing 2nd in New Hampshire are greater than they would be otherwise. He may end up 3rd or 4th anyway, but the Iowa chaos boosts his chances. 2nd in NH and 1st or 2nd in NV will help him maintain frontrunner status. Not because IA, NH and NV produce a ton of delegates, but because - again - the media narrative matters...a lot!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
pecosbob
(7,511 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided