Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumData Reveals A Moderate Democrat Is The Best Chance To Beat Trump
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Via The Economist:
This research suggests, then, that Mr Biden could perform better than his competitors against Mr Trump. He is more moderate than Mr Sanders, so both more likely to attract swing voters and less likely to motivate Republicans to vote against him. His strength with both black and racially conservative white voters could make a big difference in swing states. Recent polling from the New York Times and Siena College suggests that 6% of the electorate would vote for Mr Bidenbut not for Elizabeth Warrenagainst Mr Trump.
His advantage is evident in polls. According to The Economists analysis of publicly released polling data, Mr Biden performs better against Mr Trump than his competitors, nationwide and in swing states. Although polls of the general election conducted this early before a contest are not perfect, they are still helpful.
Mr Biden is not faultless. He is uninspiring on the stump and in debates. His Washington ties may inspire resentment from voters skeptical of elites. His candidacy would also represent a safety-first strategy for the Democrats at a time when many in the party desperately want to push a much more progressive economic, racial and social agenda. Yet for all that he still appears to be the Democrats best option in a contest against Mr Trump.
Trump is attacking Biden because he is the Democrat who poses the biggest threat
Joe Biden is the example used in the article, but the same principle applies to all of the moderate Democrat. Trump is extreme. The formula for beating a political extremist isnt to navigate to the opposite extreme.
Trump has abandoned the political middle, and it would be a foolish mistake for Democrats to believe that they could nominate any of their candidates and beat Trump. If Trump runs against someone on the far left, he will wrap himself in patriotism, and paint his opponent as the extremist.
Election Day turnout will be smaller because people in the middle will stay home instead of choosing between a candidate on the right, and a candidate on the left. A base election helps Trump and the Republican Party.
A moderate can beat Trump with a promise to end the crazy and bring the presidency and the nation back to normal. Beating an incumbent president is difficult, but according to the research, a moderate gives Democrats their best chance to win in 2020.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,929 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,732 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)even then that candidate has nearly than a 50% probability
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)National polls are meaningless. The only analyses that would be applicable are ones that take the electoral college into consideration and determine whether or not the various candidates can win in the few states that will matter in November.
Head-to-head polls on a national level tell us next to nothing.
As the article notes:
"According to The Economists analysis of publicly released polling data, Mr Biden performs better against Mr Trump than his competitors, nationwide and in swing states."
All other things being equal (Trump winning red states, all our candidates winning blue ones, etc.), the bolded part is all that matters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(144,005 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(144,005 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(111,322 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(144,005 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Vogon_Glory
(9,086 posts)And to be truthful, Id have been agreeable to seeing Elizabeth Red Earth Daughter Warren sworn in as President of the United States next January. I still kinda wish she could pull it off, but I dont think shed be able to,
But after watching the disgraceful, unpatriotic behavior of the Republicans in the US Senate, I have come to the conclusion that we Democrats have NO margin for error. We MUST have a win, and despite my issues with Joe, I think he has a far better chance for beating Orange Julius than the current favorite of the young and most-likely-to-flake-out-when-it-counts segment of the Democratic voting coalition.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... like Jill Stein for example.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SMC22307
(8,088 posts)How'd that turn out?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided