Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumRCP, Biden is leading. New Quinipiac as of today showing Biden winning. No Sanders surge!
Biden leading. Sure Sanders could win Iowa and I would hope he could win a close state like New Hampshire. But he is not winning the nomination...new polls out yesterday (morning Consult) and Today (Quinnipiac clearly show this). The demise of Joe Biden as always are bullshit and the Sanders Surge? Not happening. I have added 538 numbers below...and Biden still winning. I have added the entire history of Quinnipiac to show now surge...and it does.
Today Real Clear Polititics
Today Here is Quinnipiac...pay attention to Demographics...Sander still losing AA voters
Yesterday Morning Consult
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
Quinnipiac numbers for entire primary...NO surge Warren and Sanders trading supporters. But may margin of error too.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3654
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)ago in the double digits.
Also check out the RCP average for Iowa and NH. If it actually goes that way, Biden is in trouble.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(295,899 posts)reject your premise.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Your assessment is not accurate
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
pfeiffer
(280 posts)I'm surprised...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
He has cut Biden's lead in half since last week. That's not bad at all!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ritapria
(1,812 posts)The National Numbers won't make big Moves until Iowa and NH weigh in ...Steady upward Progress in National Polling for Bernie .Bernie is up by a margin of 8% in Iowa in 2 different polls, and ahead by 9% in another .Bernie is clearly surging in NH Bernie has made rapid progress toward securing the nomination- particularly in the last 2 weeks If he wins Iowa and NH by margins of 5%-10% , he is going to be difficult to stop .That is the realty of the situation
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)I would not count Warren out...he should be very nervous about her ground game...and the fact he wasn't viable in a mock caucus in a COLLLEGE! I mean isn't that his demographic?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)Not to mention
Biden wins NY, TX, Fl, PA, MI, IL, OH, WI, GA, VA, SC, NC ..states where there are big numbers of EC votes...note also the battleground states where this election will be won in the GE!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)These are the most recent polls...morning consult yesterday and Quinnipiac today...NO evidence at all that Biden is in trouble...some and picking and choosing...but these are the numbers. Sanders is not going to win the nomination IMHO. Go look for yourself.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)The 538 projections have a track record of accuracy, despite what some polls might say at one point or another.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Biden 2 in 5 (40%), Sanders 3 in 10(31%)
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)measure...and not surging. Keep in mind protections are fluid and I don't think these include Morning Consult or Quinnipiac.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)I mean, I call it a surge, they call it an "upswing." Same diff. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-sanders-is-on-the-upswing/
Since this article's information alone, his forecast went from 22% to 31%. I call that a heckuva surge!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)not get in Iowa...what happens if she wins and she could.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Warren is still pretty steady in IA. She will get the 15% required.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)The polls are showing Bernie gaining steadily whether you admit it or not. But ultimately all that matters is the actual elections. Bernie came up behind from a 30% deficit in Michigan last time. Polls can only tell us so much regardless of what they are saying.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)That shouldn't be a crazy idea considering they are the most ideologically similar.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)in any of the candidates...all their policy is fine with me...not voting on policy and I know Warren supporters are not particularly happy with Sanders...and then there is the Rogan thing...he is vile against women too...and of course Warren's Hillary supporters will not likely vote for Sanders- the real ones not the ones who have her picture but you can tell they are really Sanders supporters...do they really think they fool anyone? I am a Clinton supporter and would vote for him only in the general but what will end it for him is that he is unable to get a sufficient amount of AA vote IMHO.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Well after the Sanders Warren spat.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)and I would bet they are using the script door to door...and you have Rogan now...it will turn off women. If she wins Iowa and she could...she might get Sanders supporters. who make up those who say she is their second favor...she could win Iowa
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)He is not doing so great with women either. Sanders will not be our nominee not with those AA support numbers. I wonder if he will think the Rogan endorsement was such a good thing shortly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)You want to THINK Biden is in trouble... he isnt
Sanders will be swept away in the south when the single most important voting block weighs in. SC the bellwether for the AA vote...so goes SC so goes the rest of the nation AA vote
538 SC poll as of today
Biden 36.5
Sanders 17.1
No dem candidate has ever won primary or GE without the AA vote
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
frazzled
(18,402 posts)1,620,000 lead out of the 30,000,000 votes cast in the primary (using 2016 totals), if it were just the two of them. Thats a big lead in actual elections.
Of course, many of the other candidates will drop out by Super Tuesday, with their votes going to others, so really, the numbers game is too soon to play.
The poll game is like playing the horses.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)Warren to win Iowa. She has a hell of a ground game and that college thing where Sanders did not even reach viability was interesting.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)states which will test his lack of strong AA support.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)The demographics of both states are in his wheelhouse.
Sadly, should he not win a commanding lead in either state, that could spell the beginning of the end of an up-to-now, rather anemic campaign.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)I will add 538 to this post too.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
getagrip_already
(14,228 posts)But either way, people have to get out and vote like we were 5 points behind.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)that those of us who support Biden don't give a damn about Iowa and as for New Hampshire...it is in Sander's back yard. BFD it is not and neither is Iowa. The outsize effect from Iowa is over with the polls being close and people waking up to the realities of demographics...Iowa is not going to make Biden supporters move to sanders no matter what but will end it for him is the AA vote is not moving towards him. And those who are counting Warren out are wrong and if she beats Sanders I think he would be cooked.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,899 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,899 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,899 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)This occupies my mind...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)Scary when ones kids are sick!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)find.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Would do something to drive down his approvals like 3 points !!! Just three points and think we'd be relatively ok.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bumperstickers
(199 posts)Biden went from + 13 to plus 5 in a month.
12/11 to12/15. Biden 30. - Sanders 16
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)and in the OP. Please note Biden's numbers are pretty steady within the margin of error and so are sanders for the most part. He and Warren are trading supporters it looks like to me...but no surge.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bumperstickers
(199 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)have traded supporters...No Biden drop...he is been quite stable. The chart is posted above
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)With Biden projected to win 41 states and territories and sanders 16...what would be the odds that sanders could win??!!
Not to mention Biden wins the big dogs with lots of delegates TX, PA, IL, NY, NJ, Oh, VA, SC, NC, GA, WI, MI and the others in his column
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)supporters. And the AA vote hasn't budged. You can't win with those numbers.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)A friend of mine was telling me about her ground game. She is my second choice
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
katmondoo
(6,454 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bumperstickers
(199 posts)Because there is no National Democratic election, so a pollster can not be held accountable unlike a state primary where a pollsters reputation is on the line. So your state polls are what you can bet on as the true story right now.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(295,899 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
denem
(11,045 posts)Dire.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden