Eye Opening Poll New Baldwin Poll in four key mid-western states. Biden leads in 3 out of 4 polls

[Demsrule86]

The Mid-West is ground zero for the 20 general election. And we can win if I believe we choose the proper candidate...Joe Biden;
Biden has deep ties to the Mid-West and spent many days here during 08 and 12. He helped President Obama win Ohio for sure. Please look at the Mid Western polls, Baldwin shows Biden leading Sanders in three out of 4 polls ...WI has Bernie up by 1 point. If you go to the link you can access this poll. Please note' a plurality of voters prefer Joe Biden'...Biden can win the Mid West and the general and sent Trump packing and maybe some of his GOP playmates as well. Biden has coattails...and will help with the Senate and the House. Also women want Trump out and women are more likely to support Biden than Sanders as we have seen in this and other polls. Go Joe!!!








More Here...https://www.bw.edu/news/2020/spring/01-cri-voter-poll-four-key-midwest-states

Polls for today including Balwin... from 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

[Tiggeroshii]

1. A lot can change between now and March 17.

A lot already has, really.

[Demsrule86]

2. It could but I doubt it will. The trends are not good for Sen. Sanders...and you know how I

feel about his chances in the Mid West...small chance in Wisconsin...no chance elsewhere...not even sure he wouldn't lose Minnesota which was too close for comfort last time. I believe his scorched earth tactics against Biden are hurting him...Biden is well liked in Michigan, Ohio (particularly),and Wisconsin (Sanders leads by one point) and he is beloved in Pennsylvania.

[Tiggeroshii]

3. I disagree.

I think when combining the national polls with the earlier polls of super tuesday, etc, the trends are not good for BIden -especially if he loses Iowa. That would be a game changer at this rate. Or if he wins Iowa, it would probably stabilize him to a good super tuesday assuming NH doesn't go too terribly.

[DownriverDem]

5. Oh please

Focus on November.

[Demsrule86]

6. 538 now has him at 50% to win the nomination...so that is simple not the case.

He doesn't need to win Iowa either...his team never thought they would so they are working the more diverse states at least they were until it became clear he might and may be likely to win Iowa. Sanders and Warren must win Iowa or sweep New Hampshire to be viable even temporarily.

[Tiggeroshii]

10. Where are you seeing that? I am seeing 43% chance (2/5)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[Demsrule86]

12. I saw it here yesterday...don't remember where but even if you take 538...

As you pointed out he has a 2/5 (43%) chance of winning, And sanders has a 1/5 (20%) chance of winning...pretty substantial lead in this area. Warren has faced he steepest decline and she has a 1/7 chance (14%). Clearly Biden is likely to win the primary at the moment.

[Tiggeroshii]

19. No argument there. The race however is quite fluid, so we will have to see what happens

[Demsrule86]

28. Time will tell.

[Demsrule86]

15. Biden doesn't need to win Iowa or New Hampshire to remain viable... not his kind of states...

But if he wins even one...Sanders and Warren are done. They need Iowa and/or New Hampshire to have any chance.

[Tiggeroshii]

17. Agreed. But losing one could make things difficult, losing both I think will make it impossible

Iowa to me appears to still be the most important state though for everybody.

[Vogon_Glory]

21. Agreed. Joe doesn't need to win Iowa or New Hampshire

Despite the thrill of early voting or early caucuses, neither state is that representative of the voter coalition needed to set Donnie and company to political oblivion.

I’d like to see the Good Guys not only win all the states that used to constitute the old “Blue Wall,” but flip some of the red states without, including North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and Texas.

[Demsrule86]

23. I would love to see that too. I think we have real opportunity this year.

[Scurrilous]

32. Iowa. Game changer. ROFL.

A loss for Biden a game changer, a win for Biden a stabilizer. Excellent analysis.


Latest Iowa poll: Biden 24% +6

Iowa average: Biden 21.4% +3.6

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

Looks horrible for Biden.


So does So. Carolina:

Latest: Biden 36% +21

Average: Biden 36.3% +20.6

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/

[Demsrule86]

33. And when we look at the Mid West Polls no doubt in my mind that Biden should be the nominee.

[Tiggeroshii]

34. Polls dont vote. People do.

And they change their opinions based on changing trends. National poll averages are getting much closer, giving the early states far more sway over the overall results.

[Demsrule86]

36. I don't see it. Biden is ahead by a significant amount and always has been.

[Tiggeroshii]

37. He was ahead by an average of 15% a couple months ago

Now he is ahead by 6.2. That is very close to the MOE for those polls.

[DownriverDem]

4. I live in Michigan

Polls should have at least 1000 to be more reliable. However I am very glad to see Biden winning here.

[Demsrule86]

8. I don't disagree. This is the first of four...and Ohio State is participating as well...these folks

understand the Mid West and it shows that here people to some degree (sample is small) prefer Biden. The only poll with Sanders up is Wisconsin and he is up by 1 point...hardly even relevant.

[empedocles]

7. Fine, reassuring OP. Thanks

[Demsrule86]

9. If we win Ohio, the fat lady sings and Trump is gone. If we win the other three, Trump is gone.

Victory lies through the Mid West...the most likely way...I do think we could have a landslide if Biden is the nominee.

[squirecam]

20. I think

Ohio is lost unless Brown is on the ticket. If OH is won, then it would be a landslide.

[empedocles]

11. If we win big. Big down ticket success - it will provide a tremendous opportunity.

[Regretfully, 2008 was a great opportunity, that was not sufficiently developed or realized].

[Demsrule86]

13. I agree...Kennedy becoming ill and Scott Brown winning the special election hurt us...not to

mention Lieberman. We could get much done...time to end the filibuster if we win.

[squirecam]

14. It's the Midwest stupid!

Nt

[Demsrule86]

16. Yes it is and I think Amy Klobachar would be a great VP.

[squirecam]

18. Ive

Always thought so for Joe.

Should Warren win, I think she should try Sherrod Brown first.

[Demsrule86]

22. If we lose his seat in Ohio...we have almost no chance of winning the senate.

Warren is my second choice...I like Klobachar but Warren was way ahead when I decided...but I don't see her winning the primary. She has declined in all the polls. She needs a win in Iowa or New Hampshire to remain viable.

[squirecam]

24. Warren

Will have a tougher time getting the Midwest, then Biden for example.

She needs someone in the Midwest, but also someone who fits her ideology. That’s Brown.

We only lose the senate seat if Warren wins. I’d gladly make that trade to ensure a trump loss.

I think Joe/Amy wins the rest of the Midwest (w/o Ohio). So he isn’t necessary on a Biden ticket. Also, I don’t think Biden should pick another male.

[Demsrule86]

25. We only get anything done if we take the Senate...what good is it to win the presidency without

the Senate? We won't get judges even. She should pick Tim Ryan if she wins...he is very well liked in the mid west. He is also well liked in Ohio and could deliver Ohio which means it is game over for Trump.

[squirecam]

26. You just don't need the senate

You need to end the filibuster, which Bernie is against. A few more are too. Plus keep the Alabama seat. It’s going to be hard anyway.

I’m not worried about one senate seat in Ohio vs the presidency. Trump as president can do a lot of damage, without needing the senate. Worst case scenario is Trump gets to 46-47 approval and Tulsi is running third party. The Warren ticket needs the best possible VP.

It came down to Brown and Kaine in 2016. HRC would have won with Brown in the Midwest. Instead she picked Kaine, precisely due to the senate seat issue. In hindsight, that was a TERRIBLE choice. We shouldn’t make that choice again.

As to judges, RBG should step down on day 2 of a Warren presidency to avoid the Garland stuff.

If Warren and Brown, which would be the most progressive ticket ever, cant win, then it doesn’t matter how many senate seats we have.

[Demsrule86]

27. We are not going to keep Alabama. Session will likely run and win. Do you understand that without

the Senate, McConnell will not confirm any judges? Without the Senate we get nothing...no policy and no judges...remember Merrick Garland. I love Brown; he is my Senator but we must take the Senate...going to be hard enough without giving up a seat we are unlikely to get back. The Senate always matters. Lets say Warren is president without the Senate. She won't be able to fix the ACA much less try for MFA, she won't get any judges, and no other policy will be enacted. She will use EO's which I object to for some things and the right wing courts will strike them down. Sen. Brown should not be the VP. We can get the same bang with our buck with Tim Ryan who will also help with the moderate vote.

[squirecam]

29. Brown

Is the only one who can win Ohio statewide. She will need it, as it’s going to be much tougher for her in the Midwest then it would be for Joe/Amy.

You are making the same mistake HRC did. Get the presidency first.

If we lose Alabama, we aren’t going to get the senate anyway.

And if RBG steps down immediately, Warren will get a Supreme Court pick. I agree, the longer it goes, the more likely a garland situation happens. But not on day 2.

[Demsrule86]

30. I live in Ohio and that isn't true...

Tim Ryan is very popular...and I hope he takes Portman's seat eventually. And we do have a shot at the Senate...but there is no point in giving away Brown's seat...the bottom line is Warren should not be the nominee and I don't think she will. Although she is my second choice. Biden has the best chance of them all.

[squirecam]

31. I do think

Joe/Amy is the ticket with the best possible chance of winning.

[Demsrule86]

35. We agree completely. People don't get that Minnesota needs attention. It was way to close last time.

We don't want to wake up one day with Minnesota in the 'red' column.

[Cha]

38. KR!