In Iowa, It's Joe Biden's Race to Lose (Mother Jones)

[highplainsdem]

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/01/in-iowa-its-joe-bidens-race-to-lose/

Two weeks to go! So how is everyone doing in the Iowa caucus race? Here’s the RCP aggregate:


-snip-


The Buttigieg surge and the Sanders mini-surge have faded. Elizabeth Warren has steadied after dropping nearly ten points since November. Meanwhile, Joe Biden has been slowly gaining back the ground he lost at the end of 2019 and he’s now back in the lead—though only by a few points.

-snip-

And here's the link for RCP's Iowa page again:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html


RCP's current Iowa averages, with Biden +3.7:

Biden 21.0
Sanders 17.3
Warren 16.7
Buttigieg 16.3
Klobuchar 8.3

[NYMinute]

1. K&R Go Joe!! nt

[Cha]

2. Support for Joe Biden!

[redstateblues]

3. We need Joe!

[MontanaFarmer]

4. I think he wins it, with

support from the caucus-goers for Klobuchar, buttigieg, and other of the minor candidates where they don't clear 15%. If he does, the narrative of the race changes quickly, putting Sanders in a position where he MUST win new Hampshire. Joe's firewall in the south is nearly as impenetrable as it was with Hillary, but he's got appeal in the rust belt also. If he wins Iowa and Nevada, functionally ties in new Hampshire, the race will be basically over on super Tuesday IMO.

[UniteFightBack]

7. Thank all the Gods...I hope it goes this way. nt

[amishcountry]

5. In 2016 the final Iowa poll, Emerson college taken 2 days out had Sanders down by 8

he lost by 0.2, very hard time polling Sanders in 16, are the pollsters doing anything different this time around? If not, Sanders may win by decent margin.

http://livenews.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

6. Exactly!! It's Joe's race to lose... and he WILL lose!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[George II]

11. "It's Joe's race to lose... and he WILL lose!!" - based on what?

[TwilightZone]

8. Iowa is a caucus.

O'Malley was polling at 4-5%. He won very few precincts, so the majority of his supporters would have switched to other candidates during the caucus process.

If most of them went to Sanders, the polls were pretty much spot-on. The RCP average was Clinton +4. If most of O'Malley's 4-5% went to Sanders, it's basically a tie.

Also, cherry-picking one poll to support your assertion is a bit misguided. The dozen or so polls done in the last week were all over the place, with a spread of 14 points. The +4 average is more representative of the polling situation, and the majority of O'Malley's supporters moving to Sanders could have made up most of the difference.

[amishcountry]

15. If most went to Sanders?

Please link to something that backs this up please. I have great interest in polling and have not seen anything that backs up what your saying, so would greatly appreciate if you can show where you have seen that O malley's votes went to Sanders.

[George II]

10. This is 2020.

[George II]

9. In the last seven days he's increased his advantage over all three closest rivals....

....the biggest jump against Sanders, +4.0!

[Thekaspervote]

14. But but but...all the negative campaigning is working??

[boomer_wv]

12. I expect things to get very ugly

over the next two weeks.

The Berners are going to be on a full court press. Twitter is going to be unreadable.

[Thekaspervote]

13. +1000

[stopdiggin]

16. I call this gaming for raised expectations

A month ago the narrative was that Biden would be "just fine" with a 2nd (or even 3rd) in IA. The new spin? Disappointment and "failed expectations" for anything less than 1st. See how this works? Because .. gotta' have a horse race! Don't fall for it. Biden was never (until the last two days at least) projected to win IA.

[amishcountry]

17. Throw in enough non rated polls that give very few details on who was polled

and you can move the race to any candidate you want.