Who will become the Democratic nominee?

[Tiggeroshii]

Regardless of who you support, who do you think will win the nomination?

22 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Elizabeth
	2 (9%)
	Pete
	0 (0%)
	Amy
	0 (0%)
	Bernie
	6 (27%)
	Joe
	14 (64%)
	Tom
	0 (0%)
	Andrew
	0 (0%)
	The other billionaire
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[squirecam]

1. Lol

At the other billionaire.

[Hoyt]

2. Just let it be someone who can win and is not selling unfulfillable promises.

[JoeOtterbein]

3. BERNIE!

Because of his great leadership on important issues like full legalization of cannabis for adult and Medicare for All!

This election is his for sure!

[dusk]

5. No more angry dividers

promising the world to their true believers with No Middle Ground.

Biden!

[JoeOtterbein]

6. I feel we have plenty of...

...dividers who call themselves "moderates".

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

7. WITHOUT A DOUBT!! PRESIDENT SANDERS WILL MAKE US ALL PROUD, COUNT ON IT!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[JoeOtterbein]

8. November will be party time...

...for sure!

[ehrnst]

10. Magical thinking always works, doesn't it!!!

Whoever has the loudest crowd and the most energetic cheerleaders always wins the game!

Always!!

[dusk]

4. Let It Be

Biden !!!

[NYMinute]

9. Wouldn't you agree Bernie should drop out now?

[msongs]

11. somebody who has not spent a lifetime criticizing democrats and the party? nt

[judeling]

12. I have no Idea

And I am much less sure I have an idea of even the contenders any more.
You would have to pick Biden as the most likely but that is lees sure then even last week.
Bernie next but again things changed.

Last week that would have been my best guess and I could make a firm case for and against each. They each had possible road blocks and they each had possible advantages.

But when you really look at the data it is much more in doubt then it was. Yes it appears that Biden is solidifying a clear lead in Iowa, but that is not true in New Hampshire and we should see a bit of that. We should see at least echoes of the underlying trends in both and for Sanders and Biden we just aren't.

Two things have happened.
The first that everybody has noted is the Warren Sanders Tiff. While I don't think it is actually a huge deal. It has however apparently hurt both of them. Maybe not toplines as of yet but we have seen polls where the won't vote/consider numbers for both have jump by double digits. We have also seen Buttigieg become the favored second choice, passing Warren for the first time. It seems the rift is deeper and broader then it appears on the surface.

The other is Klobuchar's rise. It is a rise and it is real, It will have an effect on Iowa. The question is how big. She is very likely to overperform expectations and so it is not any more just where her support will go but also who's support will go to her. Every candidate will fall below the threshold in 100's of precincts in many of them there will be enough people that move to them at the second count to meet the threshold. But in many they won't and their supporters will go elsewhere. (note: you are not eliminated after the first round, its just sudden death) I just think there are going to be a lot more Warren and Buttigieg people moving to Klobuchar now then people expect. And if she surprises with her showing the game is entirely different.