Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumYet ANOTHER great poll result for Biden and dismal result for Sanders:
https://www.focusonruralamerica.com/2020/01/20/january-poll-results/
538's "Whos ahead in Iowa?" as of today:
Biden 21.5
Sanders 17.4
Buttigieg 16.4
Warren 16.3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Devastating! HUMILIATING! Bernie is in the "non-viable" range now... if I recall correctly, a candidate needs at LEAST 15% in order to receive any delegates.
It's just amazing to see his campaign start to implode and crater like this.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OnDoutside
(19,906 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
The Valley Below
(1,701 posts)Well deserved!
Go Amy!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
getagrip_already
(14,227 posts)But what is really interesting is when asked what they would do if their first choice weren't viable, 75% said they would switch and stand with another candidate. Of those, 24% said they would switch to biden. Only 6% would switch to sanders.
There isn't much support sanders can pick up, even if other candidates leave the race......
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primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)Sanders got 40% of Democratic Primary vote in '16, he's running half that this time. Even if he got 100% of Warren's support, he'd still be behind his '16 vote. thehill.com
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bummfuzzle
(154 posts)I think most of the Warren vote would go to Biden, easily. Many of us refuse to vote for Sanders. We vote Democratic.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)He did internal polling for the Obama campaign in '08 and '12. I haven't seen anything about how accurate his organization is, and it's not rated on 538, so a little caution might be in order re: this poll. That being said, it's roughly in line (within the MOE) with a recent Monmouth poll.
Here's a blurb on Binder from '14 on 538:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/lists/hispanic_pollsters/david_binder.html
The Monmouth poll: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ia_011320.pdf/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)...questionable polls in their averages in the past. As you point out, though, is that it's very similar to other recent polls like Monmouth (Biden 28% and 24%) and Neighborhood Research and Media's poll this morning (Biden 23%)
Biden has been consistently in the lead, Buttigieg and Warren have been trading 2nd and 3rd, with Sander 4th or lower in each.
The Neighborhood Research and Media poll is interesting - they have Biden at 23, Buttigieg at 17, Warren at 15, and KLOBUCHAR now in 4th at 11. Sanders has dropped to 5th at 10%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)Of course, one has to wonder if the Sanders/Warren dust-up is partly responsible or if the trend was already in place. I tend to lean toward the latter.
The second-choice numbers in that poll are really interesting.
"For those who choose another candidate, of those not currently planning to caucus for a candidate at the viability threshold, Biden receives 24% support, Buttigieg 21%, Warren 16%, Klobuchar 7%, and Sanders 6%."
The assertion made by many that Sanders is a heavy favorite as a second choice pretty much bit the dust. In this one poll, anyway.
It's going to be a very interesting six weeks or so.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Someone on the BS campaign will likely suggest that it wasn't negative enough. Maybe more than one will think that. It remains to be seen, though... doesn't it?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)Perhaps their internal polls picked up the trend before the public ones started to reflect it, and the attacks were a response.
If that's the case, they may indeed ramp up the negativity.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
amishcountry
(22 posts)Whether it favors my candidate or someone else, when it comes to Iowa, dmr is the go to poll.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bummfuzzle
(154 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
squirecam
(2,706 posts)Trending upwards.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)The graphic is great too!
This is good news for Joe Biden!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,899 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
amishcountry
(22 posts)Like 538 always says, compare polls from the same pollster to see who is trending up or down.
Pete, Bernie and Amy on a big uptick, Warren and Biden on the down slope.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)Biden 20.0
Sanders 19.9
Buttigieg 17.6
Warren 15.1
January 20 (today)
Biden 21.5 +1.5
Sanders 17.4 -2.5
Buttigieg 16.4 -1.2
Warren 16.3 +1.2
Biden has gained 4.0 on Sanders, 2.7 on Buttigieg, and 0.3 on Warren.
Biden is SURGING, Sanders is imploding, Buttigieg and Warren are hanging in there. Klobuchar is rising but still single figures.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,899 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(143,998 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,150 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NCProgressive
(1,315 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
question everything
(47,264 posts)I stayed away from this group because I cannot believe the pile of bile that his supporters here post.
Can we all just let them sink instead of replying?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,207 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden