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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
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Yet ANOTHER great poll result for Biden and dismal result for Sanders: (Original Post) George II Jan 2020 OP
Devastating! HUMILIATING! Bernie is in the "non-viable" range now... NurseJackie Jan 2020 #1
It's been coincidental with Sirota's increase in attacks on twitter and his "Bern Notice" newsletter George II Jan 2020 #2
That's a good point. OnDoutside Jan 2020 #5
The dirty-tricks campaign is blowing up in Sanders' face. The Valley Below Jan 2020 #6
3rd poll in a row to show sanders under 15%.... getagrip_already Jan 2020 #3
Bernie really hasn't been doing that well. Theses new polls back that up Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #11
A lot of Warren support comes from HRC voters who prefer not to have Biden. Bummfuzzle Jan 2020 #13
David Binder is a non-traditional pollster. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #4
Thanks for the information. I saw that his poll wasn't rated, but 538 has held back including... George II Jan 2020 #8
It's an interesting shift as the caucus grows near. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #14
So...negative isn't the way to go... I hope they got the message!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #7
Someone on the BS campaign will likely suggest that it wasn't negative enough... NurseJackie Jan 2020 #12
I've been wondering if the going-negative was a response to poor internal polling. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #15
"Throw me another shovel??" As the old saying goes...sad, very sad Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #16
I will stick with the gold standard des moins register poll when it comes to Iowa! amishcountry Jan 2020 #9
Well not much choice there...only poll showing him ahead. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #17
Good to see Warren up, Sanders down. And Klobuchar got a little bump too. Bummfuzzle Jan 2020 #10
She is squirecam Jan 2020 #20
+1 Cha Jan 2020 #24
George II, thank you very much for this posting! :) Sloumeau Jan 2020 #18
Music to America! Cha Jan 2020 #19
Bernie up 5, Warren down 5, Biden down one since last poll by this unrated pollster amishcountry Jan 2020 #21
Just a week ago, on January 13: George II Jan 2020 #23
NEGATIVE campaiging NOT Working! Positiveness for Biden Cha Jan 2020 #22
sander may miss the15% threshold and be frozen out of delegates Gothmog Jan 2020 #25
Biden is White House bound. All aboard. oasis Jan 2020 #26
Sanders can only go downhill from here NCProgressive Jan 2020 #27
And the sooner the better question everything Jan 2020 #28
I love it! Tarheel_Dem Jan 2020 #29
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
1. Devastating! HUMILIATING! Bernie is in the "non-viable" range now...
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:09 PM
Jan 2020

Devastating! HUMILIATING! Bernie is in the "non-viable" range now... if I recall correctly, a candidate needs at LEAST 15% in order to receive any delegates.

It's just amazing to see his campaign start to implode and crater like this.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
2. It's been coincidental with Sirota's increase in attacks on twitter and his "Bern Notice" newsletter
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:11 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

OnDoutside

(19,906 posts)
5. That's a good point.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:15 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

The Valley Below

(1,701 posts)
6. The dirty-tricks campaign is blowing up in Sanders' face.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:15 PM
Jan 2020

Well deserved!

Go Amy!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

getagrip_already

(14,227 posts)
3. 3rd poll in a row to show sanders under 15%....
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:14 PM
Jan 2020

But what is really interesting is when asked what they would do if their first choice weren't viable, 75% said they would switch and stand with another candidate. Of those, 24% said they would switch to biden. Only 6% would switch to sanders.

There isn't much support sanders can pick up, even if other candidates leave the race......

[img]?resize=1080%2C608&ssl=1[/img]

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
11. Bernie really hasn't been doing that well. Theses new polls back that up
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:33 PM
Jan 2020

Sanders got 40% of Democratic Primary vote in '16, he's running half that this time. Even if he got 100% of Warren's support, he'd still be behind his '16 vote. thehill.com

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Bummfuzzle

(154 posts)
13. A lot of Warren support comes from HRC voters who prefer not to have Biden.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:35 PM
Jan 2020

I think most of the Warren vote would go to Biden, easily. Many of us refuse to vote for Sanders. We vote Democratic.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
4. David Binder is a non-traditional pollster.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:14 PM
Jan 2020

He did internal polling for the Obama campaign in '08 and '12. I haven't seen anything about how accurate his organization is, and it's not rated on 538, so a little caution might be in order re: this poll. That being said, it's roughly in line (within the MOE) with a recent Monmouth poll.

Here's a blurb on Binder from '14 on 538:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/lists/hispanic_pollsters/david_binder.html

The Monmouth poll: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ia_011320.pdf/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
8. Thanks for the information. I saw that his poll wasn't rated, but 538 has held back including...
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:23 PM
Jan 2020

...questionable polls in their averages in the past. As you point out, though, is that it's very similar to other recent polls like Monmouth (Biden 28% and 24%) and Neighborhood Research and Media's poll this morning (Biden 23%)

Biden has been consistently in the lead, Buttigieg and Warren have been trading 2nd and 3rd, with Sander 4th or lower in each.

The Neighborhood Research and Media poll is interesting - they have Biden at 23, Buttigieg at 17, Warren at 15, and KLOBUCHAR now in 4th at 11. Sanders has dropped to 5th at 10%.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
14. It's an interesting shift as the caucus grows near.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:36 PM
Jan 2020

Of course, one has to wonder if the Sanders/Warren dust-up is partly responsible or if the trend was already in place. I tend to lean toward the latter.

The second-choice numbers in that poll are really interesting.

"For those who choose another candidate, of those not currently planning to caucus for a candidate at the viability threshold, Biden receives 24% support, Buttigieg 21%, Warren 16%, Klobuchar 7%, and Sanders 6%."

The assertion made by many that Sanders is a heavy favorite as a second choice pretty much bit the dust. In this one poll, anyway.

It's going to be a very interesting six weeks or so.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
7. So...negative isn't the way to go... I hope they got the message!!
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:23 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
12. Someone on the BS campaign will likely suggest that it wasn't negative enough...
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:35 PM
Jan 2020

Someone on the BS campaign will likely suggest that it wasn't negative enough. Maybe more than one will think that. It remains to be seen, though... doesn't it?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
15. I've been wondering if the going-negative was a response to poor internal polling.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:41 PM
Jan 2020

Perhaps their internal polls picked up the trend before the public ones started to reflect it, and the attacks were a response.

If that's the case, they may indeed ramp up the negativity.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
16. "Throw me another shovel??" As the old saying goes...sad, very sad
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:50 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

amishcountry

(22 posts)
9. I will stick with the gold standard des moins register poll when it comes to Iowa!
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:23 PM
Jan 2020

Whether it favors my candidate or someone else, when it comes to Iowa, dmr is the go to poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
17. Well not much choice there...only poll showing him ahead.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 07:46 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Bummfuzzle

(154 posts)
10. Good to see Warren up, Sanders down. And Klobuchar got a little bump too.
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 05:26 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

squirecam

(2,706 posts)
20. She is
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 08:41 PM
Jan 2020

Trending upwards.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
18. George II, thank you very much for this posting! :)
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 08:11 PM
Jan 2020

The graphic is great too!



This is good news for Joe Biden!



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(295,899 posts)
19. Music to America!
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 08:38 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

amishcountry

(22 posts)
21. Bernie up 5, Warren down 5, Biden down one since last poll by this unrated pollster
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 08:48 PM
Jan 2020

Like 538 always says, compare polls from the same pollster to see who is trending up or down.


Pete, Bernie and Amy on a big uptick, Warren and Biden on the down slope.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
23. Just a week ago, on January 13:
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 09:02 PM
Jan 2020
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

Biden 20.0
Sanders 19.9
Buttigieg 17.6
Warren 15.1

January 20 (today)

Biden 21.5 +1.5
Sanders 17.4 -2.5
Buttigieg 16.4 -1.2
Warren 16.3 +1.2

Biden has gained 4.0 on Sanders, 2.7 on Buttigieg, and 0.3 on Warren.

Biden is SURGING, Sanders is imploding, Buttigieg and Warren are hanging in there. Klobuchar is rising but still single figures.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(295,899 posts)
22. NEGATIVE campaiging NOT Working! Positiveness for Biden
Mon Jan 20, 2020, 08:54 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(143,998 posts)
25. sander may miss the15% threshold and be frozen out of delegates
Tue Jan 21, 2020, 01:00 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

oasis

(49,150 posts)
26. Biden is White House bound. All aboard.
Tue Jan 21, 2020, 01:49 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NCProgressive

(1,315 posts)
27. Sanders can only go downhill from here
Tue Jan 21, 2020, 01:53 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

question everything

(47,264 posts)
28. And the sooner the better
Tue Jan 21, 2020, 02:05 AM
Jan 2020

I stayed away from this group because I cannot believe the pile of bile that his supporters here post.

Can we all just let them sink instead of replying?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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