538's forecast of who'll get the nomination, updated today: Biden 44%, Sanders 19%, Warren 13%

[highplainsdem]

Last edited Mon Jan 20, 2020, 11:53 AM - Edit history (1)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/


Updated last night at 9:38 pm ET last night.

Biden 43%, Sanders 20%, Warren 13%


Updated again this morning at 10:43 am ET:

Biden 44%, Sanders 19%, Warren 13%

[getagrip_already]

1. good news for bernie!

He (20%) comes in just ahead of "No One" (15%).....

Phew.

[bluewater]

2. WTF?!? Biden is still not at a 50% CHANCE of getting the nomination?

43% ?

lol



Soooo... Biden is more likely NOT to be the nominee! Still.

Honestly, people need to get used to idea that Joe Biden is odds on probably NOT going to win the nomination according to very reputable data analysis gurus like 538.

Again, according to THIS OP ARTICLE from 538, someone else will probably win the nomination instead of Biden.

[TwilightZone]

3. I don't think you understand how odds work.

I'll make it easy for you. The person who has the highest number is the most likely to win. The number does not have to be higher than the total of all other candidates in the race combined. That's not how odds work.

[bluewater]

4. The odds from 538 say Biden is likely NOT to be the nominee.

I think you do not understand how odds work.

538 says Biden only has a 43% chance of winning the nomination.

That means the likely nominee will be SOMEONE ELSE from the field of candidates.

It's that simple.

[treestar]

6. Sanders has 20% chance

That means the odds are 80% that it will be someone other than Sanders. At least, if that is the way to read that statistic.

[Quackers]

7. Here's the actual odds. Based on this, Biden has the best chance.

LATEST ODDS
Biden
2 in 5
(43%)

Sanders
1 in 5
(20%)

No one
1 in 7
(15%)

Warren
1 in 8
(13%)

Buttigieg
1 in 12
(9%)

All others
<1 in 100
(0.5

[squirecam]

10. Well

If you add Sanders and Warren they are a combined 33%.

So Biden is more likely to be the nominee then both of them. Combined.

[Hav]

18. Nope, it's not that simple

538 does not say Biden has a 43% chance to win the nomination.
They calculated a 43% chance of winning over half of the pledged delegates. There is the chance to win more delegates than everybody else or getting close to 50% of the pledged delegates. These scenarios aren't part of the 43% and would push Biden to 51%.

[George II]

24. Let's put it this way....Biden has a 57% chance of "not" winning, Sanders has an 80% chance...

...of not winning, Warren an 87% chance of not winning.

But keep in mind, 538 also says he'll have 1640 delegates (about equal to Warren and Sanders combined). It only takes ~1900 to win. If he doesn't after the first ballot, chances are NONE of his delegates will flee but some of Warren's and Buttigieg's delegates will go to Biden and there are about 770 super delegates, most are long-time loyal Democrats who have known Biden for decades. Chances are the bulk of them will vote for Biden.

No brokered convention.

[BannonsLiver]

17. This.

So many times this. You have to admit though there is unintentional comedy from observing someone who fancies themself an expert (and who has said they are in fact a polling expert on DU) who doesn’t really know anything at all. There’s real humor in watching it IMO.

[dsc]

5. actually since one of the options is no one having it on the first ballot

and it is absurd to think Biden wouldn't win a goodly number of those scenarios, it doesn't say anything like that. Biden is at 43% and no one is at 15%. Given that super delegates, which Biden has many of, would end up coming into play he has to be favored in half of the outcomes where no one has a majority, which puts him over 50%

[beastie boy]

11. The odds look pretty good to me

I am still holding onto my half of the dollar I bet.

A 43% chance of Biden being nominated on the first ballot vs a 15% chance of a brokered convention.

But just in case, I am going to start preparing my humiliating concession post declaring you a political genius. !5% chance is nothing to sneeze at.

[TexasTowelie]

14. A lot can change,

particularly since the next two candidates following him won't be on the campaign trail for who knows how long because of the impeachment trial.

[helpisontheway]

20. He has a better shot to be the nominee than Warren! Nt

[Gothmog]

8. According to Nate, Joe Biden is ahead in Iowa

Link to tweet

[highplainsdem]

9. Yep. I'm watching for any updates today on their forecast page. None so far.

[Gothmog]

15. Biden at 44%

Link to tweet

[highplainsdem]

16. Yep. I've updated the OP.

[NurseJackie]

12. That's HUMILIATING for Bernie. He's cratering. Devastating.

[highplainsdem]

13. Just edited the OP for today's update. Biden up to 44%, Sanders down to 19%.

[Cha]

23. Thanks!

[peggysue2]

19. Good news!

No wonder we're seeing an uptick in negative memes about Biden. The closing numbers are shifting in Joe's direction.

Which, btw, does not surprise me. There's a reason he's been the leader from the start.

[helpisontheway]

21. Exactly! Trends going his way and Bernie is getting concerned..Look out

Biden,Warren and Buttgieg..He is desperate to turn it around now.

[Cha]

22. KR

[xmas74]

25. I'm a Warren fan, I've met and like Klobuchar

But I will work for a Biden GE with zero qualms. He'll get union support and I'm proud union.