The real question in the primary. Can Biden get 51% of the delegates?

[Joe941]

As lower tier candidates drop out who will get their supporters? I really think Bernie is in great position to gain the majority of the supporters. The question is will lower tier candidates drop out in time for anyone to get to 51%?

[Peacetrain]

1. Nope, don't think so ... Sanders team has been working overtime attacking

other candidates.

[janterry]

2. I sure hope people line up for Bernie!

n/t

[Sloumeau]

3. In the end, I think the ratio between Biden votes and Sanders votes will be something like

60% Biden
40% Sanders

or
55% Biden
45% Sanders

If Warren stays in, and a lot of the others drop out, things will get really easy for Biden. If, however, Warren drops out early, which I highly doubt, Sanders will be in a much better position.

[Perseus]

4. Here is your answer according to Nathan Robinson of the Guardian

Stop saying Biden is the 'most electable'. Trump will run rings round him
~~ Nathan Robinson
[link:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/04/joe-biden-electable-trump-2020-election|

[TwilightZone]

9. The assertions made in that article are laughable.

" No money
No voter enthusiasm
No organization
No agenda
No real argument for himself"

Wishful thinking is always kind of interesting to behold. In this case, it's also hilariously transparent.

"He is the author of the new book Why You Should Be a Socialist "

Oh, now there's a shock.

[Joe941]

15. It doesnt sound that far fetched to me.

[TwilightZone]

17. Well, of course it doesn't.

Also not a shock.

[still_one]

27. The Guardian is NOT objective, and has been extremely ant-Biden and pro Sanders

Bias for quite some time and giving an OP ED bias pieces mostly by pro Sanders supporters

[Perseus]

41. Actually, the Guardian is very objective

They want USA citizens to choose the right candidate, let us not forget that their economy depends a lot from the government we choose, and right now they are hurting as much as we are, they want the right candidate.

Also, if you go to the Guardian's site every day you will find articles from people who support different candidates, including Biden.

[still_one]

48. I disagree from what I have seen in the OP Eds.

[Perseus]

39. I may not agree 100% with the article, but there are plenty of truths in it which must be considered

objectively.

For example:
1. trump will run circles around Biden. I understand that those who have an almost fanatic view of Biden cannot see why republicans really want Biden to win the nomination, one has to look at their actions objectively and brush aside their act of being afraid of Biden. They are not afraid of Biden, on the contrary, Biden has so much baggage they already have a campaign ready against him, they are salivating at the prospect that Biden will be the nominee. To pretend that Hunter Biden is holy is also naive, let us not forget that he was let go of the Navy because he tested positive for drugs, he has also worked as a lobbyist which is a profession that most Democrats would like to get rid of, at least Democratic voters.
2. Biden seems to be increasing the number of gaffes on a weekly basis. It used to be he would come up with one once in a while, they are more common now, but it also may be due to being on the campaign trail and having to talk more than usual.
3. He is not a progressive, his support from the huge numbers of young people who want a progressive as POTUS and will not think twice to stay home and not vote for someone like Joe Biden will help trump.
4. To pretend that the majority of the country doesn't want "Universal Healthcare" and that most USA citizens "love their current insurance" is naive. The majority of USA citizens DO WANT "Universal Healthcare", they want "Medicare For All", and Joe Biden is offering more of the same, and enhanced Obamacare without specific details.
5. The country DOES want FREE EDUCATION, and Joe Biden is only offering two-year free community college education but it will not free up students from "Student Loans" if they want to go on to higher education. Some of his proposal are already in place, such as working for the government for years to get your loan paid for, a total of 10 years. How many jobs in government is Joe Biden going to create to accomplish that? Why not raise taxes to pay for FREE EDUCATION which is what the country needs and want.

There is more that can be taken from that article, there is some that needs to be ignored, but the question of why republicans are so eager to put on an act of fear of Joe Biden must be answered, we know republicans are fake and cunning, and they all know Joe Biden very well.

If we want our country to move forward then we must look at all the candidates objectively, which you and many may have and think Biden to be the right one, but we must continue to open our ears and our minds to listen to what other people are saying without prejudice or advanced judgement, there are many truths in that article.

I will support Biden if he becomes the nominee, but at this time I am not convinced he is the right candidate, but I won't sit at home if he wins the nomination.

[PatSeg]

13. No, I don't think so

Trump couldn't run rings around a toddler right now and he's getting worse every day. Meanwhile, Robinson couldn't be much more biased.

[Perseus]

40. You underestimate his uneducated followers

And republicans are fanatics, they will support any republican candidate, let us not forget they have proven to be very uninformed.

trump with his stupidity grabs the attention of his followers, but lets forget about trump, let us look at the republican party and how much knowledge they have about Biden who has been around for a long time, they are ready for Biden, they want Biden to be the nominee, make no mistake about it. It is fantasy to think republicans are afraid of Biden, they are just putting up an act, they are trying to make people think they are afraid when in fact they are cheering for him.

[PatSeg]

44. First of all,

that hard core base of Trump's is not ever going to vote for any Democrat, so there is no point even trying to appeal to them.

Second, I seriously doubt that republicans are cheering for Biden to win. For all Biden's perceived weaknesses, he is still going to be the hardest candidate to beat, because he has a much broader appeal. Voters are stressed and exhausted from three years of Trump and will gravitate to someone who represents stability, sanity, and decency.

Most voters do not spend as much time as we do dwelling on politics and in the end, they will vote for the person first and foremost. Republican strategists are unlikely to pull up anything from Biden's past that hasn't already been revealed and scrutinized numerous times. Meanwhile, all Trump can do is come up with his lame playground insults, as he has no real grasp on governing and policy.

[Perseus]

52. I agree with you on points 1 & 3

But on point 2, I do believe republicans are going to be very happy if Biden wins the nomination.

Please understand that I want to be wrong about all these, even if I don't agree with many of the things Biden is proposing, and I firmly believe that he is kidding himself about being able to negotiate with republicans, he has not been able to do it in the past, and a few points more. If Biden wins the nomination I want to be wrong about all these things; if he wins the nomination I want him to be an even better president than Obama, or Bill Clinton were or what Hillary could have been, I like Biden, I just think he is not strong enough to fight hard against republicans and the creature. I cringe every time Biden talks about "Moscow-Mitch" and calls him "Mitch", as if "Moscow-Mitch" was his pal, and then the gaffes, but leave that aside, if he wins the nomination then I am all in.

[PatSeg]

54. Ah, time will tell

We can predict all we want, but none of us really knows what will happen. Meanwhile, I think overall republicans are nervous about the upcoming election. So many already are jumping ship and retiring. I'm not sure those that remain really have any strategy aside from treading water.

It should be an interesting year, though right now, I'd prefer a little old fashion and dull boredom.

[delisen]

32. The author does not acknowledge Putin's role or Clinton's win

of the popular vote.

Nathan Robinson is basically a self-styled "academic socialist" but does he apply socialism in his own life?

Sincerely asking.

[Perseus]

42. It is important to look at the messenger, but I think his article needs to be read objectively

He does present a lot of truths, you don;t have to agree with all of it, but there is more that needs to be considered than less, so don't kill the messenger, analyze the message.

[delisen]

45. I analyzed it. I am not impressed with the argument or the intellectual

intellectual caliber of the messenger. His thinking is facile; superficial.

I even tried to find some information on the messenger's socialism in practice-but found nothing. Do you know him; does he in some way practice socialism-even experimentally?

There is a huge difference between being a socialist and studying socialism, or lecturing on socialism, or writing about socialism.

He has a new book telling other people they should be socialists. (At least he admits socialism is hard to define).

Possibly he is practicing socialism with the revenue from his book?

I meet regularly with a group of people who have almost no income and are without homes. Their sharing of scarce resources with each other as well as their ethical decision-making would put many self-styled socialists to shame.

To opine and make pronouncements about the 2016 election and Clinton as a candidate without even mentioning the fact that our government kept the electorate in the dark about Russian involvement is shallow at best.

(Let's remember that Trump best a very heavy field of primary election Republicans-most or all of whom were considered more likely to win the primary). So the "bad candidate" Clinton meme is tiresome.

I don't see truths in his writing, I see opinion and few facts.
Robinson has a political point of view to which he seems to be wedded, and he is not analyzing; he is, at best, propagandizing or entertaining.

Frankly I think if he followed a thinker and activist like Greta Thunberg around for a year, he might be able to write something worth reading.

[Perseus]

53. Nobody practices Socialism. Socialism is just a theory, no one ever puts it in practice.

It is used by communist dictators to lure the masses to vote for them because the theory of socialism is actually beautiful, full of crap, but to those who are straggling it is music to their ears. I have also noticed a common characteristic on those fake leaders who adopt socialist rhetoric, they are all great speakers, they use beautiful vocabulary and they are very convincing, granted that their message is directed to people who are usually desperate and can't differ a con from an honest messenger.

But anyway, I am not even interested in the messenger, I do happen to agree with some of his message because I have discussed the same points with friends in the past few weeks. He may have an agenda, I don't doubt it, but as I said, he makes some very good points, and I happen to believe they are spot on.

[RandySF]

5. Probably not.

But it’s not uncommon pror to convention day.

[brooklynite]

6. Depends on whether Sanders is running 2nd or 3rd...

If he's in second, whoever is in third will drop out at an appropriate time.

[George II]

7. He's got an outside chance of doing so. If things remain the same he'll get ALL of the delegates in:

Last edited Sun Jan 5, 2020, 09:56 PM - Edit history (1)

VA
SC
FL
GA
TX
AZ

No one else is above 15% in those states, and he's very close in:

NC
PA

One or two opponents are about 16% in those.

Even if he only gets about 40% after the first ballot, chances are the Super Delegates will vote overwhelmingly for Biden and some of the marginal candidates who may have picked up a few delegates along the way will probably endorse him as the front runner.

[ismnotwasm]

8. Naw. It will be Biden

It was always going to be Biden

[ritapria]

10. How Bernie wins Nomiation

He needs to win Iowa , NH , NV and score a close second in SC ...On Super Tuesday , he needs to crush it in CA , and all the other non-Southern Super Tuesday States ….. Bernie needs to repeat his 2016 victory in Oklahoma and score close seconds in the other Southern Super Tuesday States … How can Bernie get these close seconds on Super Tuesday ? . Bloomberg will get around 10%- 15% of the vote on Super Tuesday- carving up the moderate lane with Biden ….. Thanks Mike ..

[SCantiGOP]

30. I can comment on one of your points

“a close second in SC.”
I’ve been involved in SC politics for a few decades, and Biden will win by at least 20 points, and may get over 50% of the total vote.
Biden is polling around 70% of the African American vote, which makes up about 60% of the Dem primary.

[Gothmog]

11. There are far fewer caucuses this cycle and the 15% rule will help Biden a great deal

If sanders does not win big in the all white states, sanders will have a huge problem in the states that represent the demographics of the party.

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

12. lol Now talk of a brokered convention is mainstream? lol

Brokered convention:

In United States politics, a brokered convention (sometimes referred to as an open convention and closely related to a contested convention) can occur during a presidential election when a political party fails to choose a nominee on the first round of delegate voting at the party's nominating convention.

Just yesterday people were telling me I was crazy for thinking it could very well happen this year.

To be clear, I really do think it is likely that no candidate will earn enough delegates in the primaries to win independently on the first ballot. Some deals might be cut ON the first ballot for delegates, but to my mind that is still a brokered convention and has not happened in ages. I believe the last one was in 1952 or 1948.

Also, if a candidate comes into the convention leading with a plurality of at least 36%, the Super Delegates, who make up about 15% of the delegate total, are allowed to vote on the second ballot and can put such a candidate over the top. No deals would need to be made between campaigns.

If the leading candidate has less than a 36% plurality of delegates, than even getting all the Super Delegates would not be enough and things get interesting.

[Joe941]

14. Super delegates better not steel this election.

[bluewater]

16. Super Delegates will vote for the single candidate with the most delegates

If it comes down to it, the Super Delegates will vote for the single candidate that was won the most delegates coming into the convention. Well, a few might not, but the vast majority will do all they can to ensure that a nominee is selected on the second ballot, worse case. And that nominee will be the single candidate that came into the convention with the most delegates earned.

They will not vote for a "coalition" candidate that did not have as many delegates coming in no matter how many they get thru dealing making at the convention. And they will pressure all the campaigns to do the same.

For that reason, I do not think any brokered convention will go past the 2nd ballot.

The super delegates will insist that the party comes out united behind the person having the most delegates entering the convention.

At least that's my take on it.

[Demsrule86]

24. I agree with you...the individual candidate with the the most delegates will be the nominee...I hope

that this person has a good number of delegates so there will be no drama, but people forget how close it was in 08 and Michigan and Florida delegates were not counted. I would have expected Hillary to win those states.

[Indykatie]

18. Super Delegates Won't Steel or Steal This Election. Leader Will Get Most SD Votes.

[still_one]

28. Yup, and it didn't happen before either

[Demsrule86]

25. They will vote for the individual who has the most delegates as they always do...second ballot for

sure if it not done on the first ballot...Just because Sanders won't win doesn't mean any stealing is going on.

[StevieM]

29. They won't, and for the record, they didn't steal the last one either.

Hillary beat Bernie by 4 million votes.

And there was never the possibility that they would overturn the will of the people. In 2008 the SDs that were supporting Hillary went over to Obama at the end. It would have been the same way in 2016.

The talk about SDs giving Hillary the nomination was never anything but a way of dismissing her candidacy and belittling her accomplishments. And it was a way of influencing the voters who chose the PDs, which were understood all along to be what would determine who got the nomination.

[Gothmog]

19. Nate Silver discounts the risk of a brokered convention

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

21. Wow, an old tweet from 8:32 PM · Oct 22, 2019 ?!?

um, that was before Billionaire Michael Bloomberg entered the race, wasn't it?

Why, yes, it was.

With Bloomberg already committing $100 MILLION to his campaign and sources saying he is willing to go as high as a BILLION dollars, the race takes on a whole new dynamic. Now there will be FIVE campaigns with the money to stay in to the very end.

But why bicker and argue amongst ourselves? Real voting starts in less than a month and Super Tuesday is on March 3rd, once those results roll in we will have something real to discuss.

Enjoy your evening.

[Demsrule86]

26. There will be two candidates by the convention and one of them will have more than 36%.

[Recursion]

36. The superdelegates voting is not a "brokered convention"

A brokered convention is a few people meeting in a smoke-filled room and coming back out and announcing James K. Polk is the nominee.

[bluewater]

50. By definition it is.

In United States politics, a brokered convention (sometimes referred to as an open convention and closely related to a contested convention) can occur during a presidential election when a political party fails to choose a nominee on the first round of delegate voting at the party's nominating convention.

The super delegates can not vote until the 2nd ballot this year, hence if they get to vote it is by accepted definition a brokered convention.

But I understand your point about the popular imagry of what brokerec conventions were in the past.

[Gothmog]

20. I doubt that there will be a brokered convention

The concept that sanders and Warren will combine is not realistic. Many of Warren supporters are former Clinton supporters who will drop Warren if they think that their vote will help sanders get the nomination. Biden will pick up the support from the other candidates which will be sufficient to win.

Super delegates will not support sanders if it comes to that. sanders has attacked establishment Democrats far too often and super delegates are by definition establishment Democrats. In addition, super delegates will be most concerned about their own and other down ballot races. If sanders is the nominee, down ballot candidates will be poured out. For example, these two super delegates just endorsed Joe Biden

Link to tweet

[Codeine]

22. Transparent. nt

[Demsrule86]

23. No it is really not...you forget that many of Warren's supporters are former Clinton supporters...

and as a former Clinton supporter...I can tell you, he will be fortunate to get a couple of them to come over...I will never get over the 16 general and I am not alone. Sanders has my vote in the general but never in the primary...any primary.

[yellowdogintexas]

31. primary voters will decide who gets the votes of those who have dropped out

As we progress through primaries, the leaders will emerge. We could very well go into a convention with a neck and neck which will have to be determined by the convention. That is when a state which went for say Pete may switch its delegate votes to another person in the second round of voting. We haven't had a brokered convention in a while, and they are interesting to watch.

[delisen]

33. I prefer to factor in Bloomberg who is quietly gaining ground. n/t

[tritsofme]

34. If you are counting on delegates to award the nomination to the trailing candidate

Prepare to be disappointed.

[SidDithers]

35. I hope the Super Delegates put Biden over the top on the 2nd ballot at the Convention...

** chef's kiss **

Sid

[mathematic]

37. A "30/15/15" split of the vote for gives biden 50% of the delegates

You only get delegates if you get more than 15% of the votes. That looks like only 3 candidates right now.

A "30/15" split between two candidates is 66% of the delegates for the leader.

The important notion here is that you need to look at the proportion of the vote of the people that got over 15%, not the proportion of the overall vote.

If biden maintains the lead with 30% of the vote, he'll end up with FAR more than 50% of the delegates. Nobody needs to drop out for this to happen.

[TidalWave46]

38. Here you have it. Everyone is now recognizing Biden's staying power.

How much will Biden lead by and is there a way Sanders can win without actually winning the vote.

[brooklynite]

43. " I really think Bernie is in great position to gain the majority of the supporters"

Please elaborate. I see no indication that Sanders will be the preferred choice of a majority of Democratic voters.

[delisen]

46. If things come down to Bernie or Biden I will go with Bloomberg.

Bloomberg is honest and as imperfect as the other two. But he listens and is workable.

He is not going to laugh off serious concerns expressed by voters, and he is unlikely to call Planned Parenthood part of the establishment.

[Demsrule86]

49. And would lose to Trump..AA supporters won't come out in the numbers we need if

the stop and frisk candidate is the nominee...sure I vote for him in a general, but he loses the general.

[MineralMan]

47. Yes, he can, and more of the candidates who will drop out are centrists.

Their supporters will likely go with Biden.

Watch the delegate count change as Super Tuesday elections are tallied.

[samnsara]

51. yep biden can and he will