Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumHarrop: Bernie Sanders' phantom momentum
By Froma Harrop / syndicated columnist
A late-December flurry of articles on a revival of Bernie Sanders prospects points to a cardinal rule of political journalism: The story must change. Whether the story has actually changed matters not.
Thus, we had a headline in The New York Times reading, Why Bernie Sanders Is Tough to Beat, and one in Politico that said, Democratic Insiders: Bernie Could Win the Nomination. The polls, however, have barely budged.
In a humorous tweet saying, ThE PriMaRy HaS BeEn A CrAzY UnPrEDiCtAbLe RoLLer CoAsTer RiDe, statistical analyst Nate Silver compared recent RealClearPolitics averages for Joe Biden and Sanders to those of a year ago. On Dec. 19, 2018, Biden was at 27.5 percent and Sanders at 19 percent. Exactly a year later, Biden was at 27.8 percent and Sanders at 19.3 percent.
The first poll after the December debate, Silver tweeted, showed not a heck of a lot going on. Andrew Yang, Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg each gained a point. Bernie and Michael Bloomberg lost one.
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https://www.heraldnet.com/opinion/harrop-bernie-sanders-phantom-momentum/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
R B Garr
(17,082 posts)And this gem is quite the understatement, but so extremely relevant:
"Also, not all Democrats love Bernies bashing of the leadership or how he slips in and out of the party, reenlisting when an election approaches."
From the polls, it looks like those bashing Democrats have not been rewarded.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,631 posts)That's the problem with only believing polls that show one's candidate in a positive light and ignoring the rest. Or looking at clear outliers as the only "true" polls.
Sanders is basically where he was in May, both nationally and in some early states like Iowa, and that's with several candidates dropping out. He seems to have a ceiling of roughly 20% on a national scale this time around. That may change as the field whittles down to three or four, of course.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Someone like Warren would have to drop out, and I don't see that happening anytime soon.
Trump's recent insanity and Biden's perfect statement makes the case for Biden even stronger.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Thanks for bring up the fact that Bernie had a heart attack .That there is a one in 5 chance he may readmitted to hospital for heart issues within the next 5 years . Class Argument .Bernie has ZERO Momentum she averts .I guess she penned this classic before learning about Bernie's Q4 fundraising total was announced Bernie raised 34.5 million in Q4 ..Pete 24.7 ..Joe 22.7 million dollars .. 300,000 new donors in Q4 ..40, 000 new donors on December 31 alone .. Thank you Froma for informing us that this is all a grand illusion .
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
R B Garr
(17,082 posts)The polls have shown the reality for Bernie. He remains well behind Biden. Fundraising could be a collective effort of many outside influences, not anything to do with actual voters, edit, also contributing $1 repeatedly doesn't mean he gets to claim they are all donations from separate individuals, lol.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,631 posts)He's been within a couple of points either side of 18% nationally since May, even with several candidates dropping out of the race. He may be raising a lot of money, but so far, there's little evidence that it's generating momentum.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Joe Biden and Liz Warren have the money that they need to move ahead. Bernie outraised Hillary in 2016, but she beat him pretty soundly once voters spoke.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,386 posts)And many of us remember all too well how Bernie - and his supporters - acted towards Hillary in 2016.
Even had Hillary won the Electoral College vote in 2016 (she DID win the popular vote, as we all remember), I suspect that he would have primaried her in this electiion and that his supporters would have been as obnoxious to her this time around as they were then.
When voters actually begin to vote, reality should set in.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lexee
(377 posts)There are many reasons I would never want Sanders to represent our Democratic Party, but a heart attack two months ago with a man hitting 80 and a horrible track record of hiring good, solid, smart Democrats has me saying, no way.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(146,760 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Joe941
(2,848 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(109,037 posts)Because it says what you don't want to hear?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)slowly opening up more of a gap on Bernie.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
betsuni
(26,094 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,299 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
comradebillyboy
(10,223 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,274 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
myohmy2
(3,299 posts)" Sanders, not unlike President Trump, has a cultlike following, which means few leave him but also few join up. "
...you like lumping Bernie with trump?
...don't worry, as Bernie pulls ahead in the primaries, we'll be sucking up all that extra support...
...I'll bet your boy wishes he had some of that 'cult-like' following charisma...
...good luck, but I don't see it happening...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)since he objects to that so much. Or maybe not.
Lol, "not a heck of a lot going on." We certainly see Sanders locked far behind, not just a lack of momentum, here.
Not to excuse negative -- and absolutely not the dirty, lying politics of a couple, but these numbers show why some good candidates felt forced to go negative against others to break out. And trying to appeal to decent Democrats that way was mostly like spitting into the wind -- ended up with spittle on their own faces and that's about all.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(146,760 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(109,037 posts)They're still Americans and a large number of southern Democrats are black.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden