Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumA rated FOX NEWS Poll * Biden 31 Sanders 23 Harris 8% Beto 8%
Last edited Sun Mar 24, 2019, 11:12 AM - Edit history (1)
* A rated by 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,691 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
R B Garr
(16,950 posts)Its a bit awkward how some say they cant wait to see Biden torn into. I bet the few items that have already been floated will have a limited shelf life over the primary duration.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)I have no doubt, though, that Joe would start off with a slight lead over Bernie, given his tenure as the loyal VP to Obama. However, with Bernie's ability to close any gap and surge as the campaign goes on, I am quite confident that Bernie will have this race wrapped up by Super Tuesday.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Here is the contact information for 538
contact@fivethirtyeight.com
You can let them know that after your exhaustive research you have determined their pollster ratings are not credible.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Coulda sworn they had Hillary winning by miles. But, if you read what I wrote, I don't doubt for a second that Uncle Joe is currently in the lead... but, no way that holds up under the energetic campaign Bernie is running.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)We are discussing their pollster ratings which are "based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each firms polls."
https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/pollster-ratings
* BTW 538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning. That was much higher than most other forecasters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Okay, I get it now.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Much less room for error in the latter. If you think is Nate Silver is some dullard who doesn't know what he is doing there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.
*Even a guy of middling intellect like me can match the performance of polls to the actual results and determine if they are accurate or not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)apparently you do. That's fine... we disagree on that. No reason, though, to put words in my mouth... never said or implied Nate Silver's a dope who hasn't a clue... that's not to say he's infallible.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Here's a poll by CNN that has roughly similar results.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/19/politics/cnn-poll-2020-harris-surge-deep-enthusiasm/index.html
P.S. I'm not trying to be quarrelsome but it puts me in a bad light if I'm posting right wing crap polls. FOX is a right wing crap news outlet but their polls are legit. That's why I linked 538's A rating in the OP.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)That's not the same thing as what you had me saying about Nate being a dope without a clue about what he's doing... come on, let's be fair here.
I do appreciate what you're trying to say... I really do.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,426 posts)Final prediction:
Clinton/Trump: 48/45
Actual result: 48/46.
But, hey, feel free to keep posting demonstrably false information.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)No need to infer bad intent on my part. The point still stands... I DON'T TRUST FUX. If you DO... good for you!!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,426 posts)No one said she was going to win 71% of the vote. And 29% is not zero, as many seem to assume, yourself seemingly included.
538 was pretty much dead-on. Your assertions are baseless.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Coulda sword they told us all the polls were wrong and the polls were going to turn around and Bernie was going to take it...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DanTex
(20,709 posts)And I also remember all the poll-trutherism. Both contributed to his loss -- living in a fantasy world is never helpful.
You'd think they would try something different after losing in 2016, right?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
robbedvoter
(28,290 posts)thanks for playing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Here is the contact information for 538
contact@fivethirtyeight.com
You can let them know that after your exhaustive research you have determined their pollster ratings are not credible.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
R B Garr
(16,950 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)BTW FOX uses a collaboration between a Democratic pollster and Republican pollster to eliminate bias which is similar to what NBC and the Wall Street Journal does.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)not one little bit!! Fuck Fox and the horse they rode in on!!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)by how much at this stage is pretty irrelevant. The bigger question is why the hell hasn't Joe declared yet?! What's he waiting for?! Whatever lead he has will not last long at this rate.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)Fox Biden +8
CNN Biden +8
Morning Consult (some were raving about this one recently) Biden +8
Of five polls that have been released in March, Biden leads in all five, and increased his lead in a couple since February. And he hasn't even announced yet.
He has the support of roughly 1/3 of Democrats in each, impressive since ~ a dozen have announced so far.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)I just don't know what more you want from me.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to George II (Reply #55)
InAbLuEsTaTe This message was self-deleted by its author.
R B Garr
(16,950 posts)And the cheerleading....
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
R B Garr
(16,950 posts)LmFAo!!!!!! Not a VeRy good try.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,060 posts)Last edited Sun Mar 24, 2019, 01:31 PM - Edit history (1)
national polls mean very little in both the primaries and general elections. Candidates are determined on a state by state basis through delegates and the electoral college.
It is also way too early for these polls to have much significance in my opinion. After the debates, and people get more acquainted with the candidates I think they have more relevance, but at this stage I wouldn't hold to much weight on them. A lot of things can happen between now and then
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/05/nate-silvers-new-pollster-ratings-are-here.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,060 posts)anyway.
The link I attached in my initial response discussed that
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,060 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)That's what called a trend. Not an outlier but a consistent trend. You're welcome.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)... is that right?
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)....Beto "started from zero" and that was only a week or two ago. Now up to 8%.
I smell a revolution in the air.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)if the outcome is reversed.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Oh yeah.. that's still floating around.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)is really only useful in showing movement.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)no one took Bernie seriously, or otherwise paid any attention to him, making him irrelevant, a nobody, someone who doesn't stand a chance. Wow, how times have changed... go Bernie!!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)and a strawman of epic proportions, but you knocked it down beautifully nevertheless.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BannonsLiver
(16,288 posts)The unintentional comedy value is high, though.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)given the amount of time and events to follow.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I can illustrate it.
What if Biden was at 3% now?
Do you think there would be clamoring for him to run?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)that's a pretty unlikely scenario.
Extreme hypotheticals don't make it more meaningful.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Sanders is literally knocking himself out and Biden is burying him without even running.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)over Joe. But, as I've said repeatedly here, I hope Joe runs - hurry up already!! - and he deserves to be the current frontrunner based upon his name recognition as Obama's loyal VP.
I wish Joe luck and will GLADLY vote for him if, by some odd chance, he's able to defeat Bernie in the primary.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Anyway thanks and backatcha!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)for the progressive agenda items Bernie is leading the fight on, as compared to more centrist ideas that are no longer in vogue. Or, as Bob Dylan would say... times, they are a changing!!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)...are Sanders'. Many have been introduced in one form or another since even before Sanders was Mayor of Burlington, as they have been for decades.
Not much is new.
The fact is, few of his agenda items have gone much beyond a concept with very little "meat on the bones" as they say, and although people do like them in concept they're not totally in favor of they way they might be implemented, with what little details they've seen.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Buzz Lightyear
(73 posts)Same as Bill Diblasio.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,288 posts)Havent you seen all the enthusiasm for him on DU? Surely he must be ahead nationally, and by a comfortable margin too.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,426 posts)Seems there's more enthusiasm for him than one might think, at least in Iowa. In one poll, anyway.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/128738338
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,288 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,426 posts)Just pointing out that your assertion might be a tad premature. It's a long election cycle.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,288 posts)And thats not an assertion, its a fact. Like I said, enjoy the run.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)comments about him. Mayor Pete is a true progressive who cares about those less fortunate. He deserves our utmost respect, even from those that disagree with his policy positions.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueFlorida
(1,532 posts)Professor, perhaps a short paragraph on what an A rating for a poll means would have been helpful for some DUers so that it won't be discounted as being from "Fox" ... it is a logical response when one's candidate is falling behind.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,288 posts)And his numbers in the real world, where the votes are counted.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
marlakay
(11,424 posts)News, the view, townhalls, etc to get noticed instead of doing rallies. I think he is doing the right thing for now, not enough people know who he is to attend rallies and it would get put all over if he had small ones.
He does need to tour the country but that takes money. I heard he is starting to get more so maybe a tour is next.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BannonsLiver
(16,288 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
marlakay
(11,424 posts)Job for the country, but the charisma of Beto and Kamela, the fight of Bernie and Warren will get more attention.
I think Joe is in the lead only because he is the most well known and everyone loved Obama. All the other times he tried to run he got nowhere so once hes in will be interesting to see if he can hold that lead.
I like Amy too shes also a fighter but she needs to get more out there, either they are not showing her or shes not as involved.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oasis
(49,317 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasBushwhacker
(20,131 posts)April 1 so everyone can think it's a joke?
Shit or get off the pot Joe! Tick tock!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(296,774 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,317 posts)Thanks Cha, for posting his message along with the Emerson poll.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(296,774 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RandySF
(58,441 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden