A rated FOX NEWS Poll * Biden 31 Sanders 23 Harris 8% Beto 8%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Last edited Sun Mar 24, 2019, 11:12 AM - Edit history (1)

EDITORIAL COMMENT- Since Joe and Bernie have near 100% name recognition their numbers are the truest measure of their support at this moment in time.

* A rated by 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Thekaspervote]

1. Nice!

[R B Garr]

2. Consistent.

It’s a bit awkward how some say they can’t wait to see Biden “torn” into. I bet the few items that have already been floated will have a limited shelf life over the primary duration.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

3. LMFAO!! Now some are giving credence to a Fox poll!! Will wonders never cease?!

I have no doubt, though, that Joe would start off with a slight lead over Bernie, given his tenure as the loyal VP to Obama. However, with Bernie's ability to close any gap and surge as the campaign goes on, I am quite confident that Bernie will have this race wrapped up by Super Tuesday.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Ecological fallacy

Here is the contact information for 538


[e-mail]


You can let them know that after your exhaustive research you have determined their pollster ratings are not credible.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

11. Riiiight... so how did 538 do in predicting the last presidential election??

Coulda sworn they had Hillary winning by miles. But, if you read what I wrote, I don't doubt for a second that Uncle Joe is currently in the lead... but, no way that holds up under the energetic campaign Bernie is running.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. We aren't discussing 538's forecasts. *

We are discussing their pollster ratings which are "based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls."

https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/pollster-ratings





* BTW 538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning. That was much higher than most other forecasters.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

16. Ohhh, so if their forecasts were questionable, we should trust their A-rating of Fox?!

Okay, I get it now.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Forecasts are prospective. Reviews are retrospective. *

Much less room for error in the latter. If you think is Nate Silver is some dullard who doesn't know what he is doing there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.






*Even a guy of middling intellect like me can match the performance of polls to the actual results and determine if they are accurate or not.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

20. Yeah, that's what I said, riiight... nice try though. I said I don't trust Fox polling...

apparently you do. That's fine... we disagree on that. No reason, though, to put words in my mouth... never said or implied Nate Silver's a dope who hasn't a clue... that's not to say he's infallible.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. You said his work was "questionable"

Here's a poll by CNN that has roughly similar results.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/19/politics/cnn-poll-2020-harris-surge-deep-enthusiasm/index.html



P.S. I'm not trying to be quarrelsome but it puts me in a bad light if I'm posting right wing crap polls. FOX is a right wing crap news outlet but their polls are legit. That's why I linked 538's A rating in the OP.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. Yes, I said 538's prediction was questionable... that's true, given how far off it was.

That's not the same thing as what you had me saying about Nate being a dope without a clue about what he's doing... come on, let's be fair here.

I do appreciate what you're trying to say... I really do.




Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[TwilightZone]

47. 538's prediction wasn't off.

Final prediction:

Clinton/Trump: 48/45

Actual result: 48/46.

But, hey, feel free to keep posting demonstrably false information.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

52. The best projection I saw was 71% Hillary, but could 538 have modified their results from that? Sure

No need to infer bad intent on my part. The point still stands... I DON'T TRUST FUX. If you DO... good for you!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[TwilightZone]

66. 71% chance of winning, not 71% of the vote

No one said she was going to win 71% of the vote. And 29% is not zero, as many seem to assume, yourself seemingly included.

538 was pretty much dead-on. Your assertions are baseless.

[DanTex]

24. How did the Bernie supporters do versus the polls in predicting the last primary?

Coulda sword they told us all the polls were wrong and the polls were going to turn around and Bernie was going to take it...

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

41. We were talking about 538... sorry if I hit a nerve, but try to stay on topic.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[DanTex]

73. Oh, I remember Berners acting like they could tell everyone else what the topic should be.

And I also remember all the poll-trutherism. Both contributed to his loss -- living in a fantasy world is never helpful.

You'd think they would try something different after losing in 2016, right?

[robbedvoter]

26. Hillary DID win by miles. EC/hacking are not fatored in polls

thanks for playing.

[MyNameGoesHere]

40. Energetic?

Here's a more apropo example of that word

Link to tweet

?s=19

[George II]

54. Totally irrelevant. It's not 538's poll, it's a poll that 538 rates "A", among the top around.

[shanny]

7. IKR?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Ecological fallacy (REDUX)

Here is the contact information for 538


[e-mail]


You can let them know that after your exhaustive research you have determined their pollster ratings are not credible.

[R B Garr]

8. LOL!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I don't like the results so they must be apocryphal.

BTW FOX uses a collaboration between a Democratic pollster and Republican pollster to eliminate bias which is similar to what NBC and the Wall Street Journal does.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

12. Yayyy... go Fox!!! But seriously, no, I don't trust that corrupt enterprise...

not one little bit!! Fuck Fox and the horse they rode in on!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I don't trust FOX. I trust Nate Silver, a lot.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

17. Listen, it's no big deal... as I've said, I give Uncle Joe his due as the obvious frontrunner...

by how much at this stage is pretty irrelevant. The bigger question is why the hell hasn't Joe declared yet?! What's he waiting for?! Whatever lead he has will not last long at this rate.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[George II]

55. Right, and others, too. ....

Fox Biden +8
CNN Biden +8
Morning Consult (some were raving about this one recently) Biden +8

Of five polls that have been released in March, Biden leads in all five, and increased his lead in a couple since February. And he hasn't even announced yet.

He has the support of roughly 1/3 of Democrats in each, impressive since ~ a dozen have announced so far.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

57. I've given Biden his due... I know you'll never do the same for Bernie, but that's okay.

I just don't know what more you want from me.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[R B Garr]

35. +1, Yes, the desperation over a legit poll is obvious.

And the cheerleading....

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

59. Desperation over a FUX poll?! LMFAO!! Hardly... good try though!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[R B Garr]

67. All the poll results are consistent, so that shoots your excuses down!!!!!!!!!

LmFAo!!!!!! Not a VeRy good try.

[still_one]

27. Fox new polling in general has is pretty good record, unlike their news reporting. That being said

Last edited Sun Mar 24, 2019, 01:31 PM - Edit history (1)

national polls mean very little in both the primaries and general elections. Candidates are determined on a state by state basis through delegates and the electoral college.

It is also way too early for these polls to have much significance in my opinion. After the debates, and people get more acquainted with the candidates I think they have more relevance, but at this stage I wouldn't hold to much weight on them. A lot of things can happen between now and then


http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/05/nate-silvers-new-pollster-ratings-are-here.html

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. OK, you keep your faith in Fox polling. I don't trust those right-wing FUX as far as I can throw 'em

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[still_one]

34. It isn't me who has faith in them, it is Nate Silver. I don't give much credence in national polls

anyway.

The link I attached in my initial response discussed that

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

60. That's fine, my point still stands. Fuck FUX... don't trust 'em, never will!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[still_one]

69. Sure, and with good reason

[Kahuna7]

37. And if this poll is entirely consistent with other recent polls??

That's what called a trend. Not an outlier but a consistent trend. You're welcome.

[George II]

53. Sanders' support has peaked. If anything changes it'll be a loss of those supporters he already has.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

61. Riiiiiiight!! Okay, that was funny!! And Beto? You're gonna tell me he's soarin to new heights

... is that right?


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[George II]

62. To borrow a phrase from three years ago, and one we are still hearing from a certain camp....

....Beto "started from zero" and that was only a week or two ago. Now up to 8%.

I smell a revolution in the air.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

64. If Beto succeeds, I'll be the 1st to congratulate him!! I'm sure you'll feel the same way for Bernie

if the outcome is reversed.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Cha]

71. Lol!

Oh yeah.. that's still floating around.

[qazplm135]

4. any polling right now

is really only useful in showing movement.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. For candidates with near universal name recognition it shows their strength at this moment in time

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

13. Bernie has universal name recognition?! And here, all this time, I thought...

no one took Bernie seriously, or otherwise paid any attention to him, making him irrelevant, a nobody, someone who doesn't stand a chance. Wow, how times have changed... go Bernie!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[qazplm135]

31. that's a pretty silly response

and a strawman of epic proportions, but you knocked it down beautifully nevertheless.

[BannonsLiver]

44. Par for the course.

The unintentional comedy value is high, though.

[qazplm135]

30. which is meaningless

given the amount of time and events to follow.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. It has some meaning.

I can illustrate it.

What if Biden was at 3% now?

Do you think there would be clamoring for him to run?

[qazplm135]

33. given his name recognition

that's a pretty unlikely scenario.

Extreme hypotheticals don't make it more meaningful.

[ucrdem]

19. Impressive.

Sanders is literally knocking himself out and Biden is burying him without even running.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

21. Famous last words... head to head, progressive vs. centrist, Bernie is vastly the superior candidate

over Joe. But, as I've said repeatedly here, I hope Joe runs - hurry up already!! - and he deserves to be the current frontrunner based upon his name recognition as Obama's loyal VP.

I wish Joe luck and will GLADLY vote for him if, by some odd chance, he's able to defeat Bernie in the primary.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[ucrdem]

23. Some think so, that's clear.

Anyway thanks and backatcha!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

63. Yup & it's really ok to disagree. I promise not to hold it against you or any other Biden supporter.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[George II]

56. Vastly superior in whose eyes? Remember, the Democratic Party is still dominated by "centrists".

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

68. LOL!! Have you seen where the American people stand?! Poll after poll shows vast support

for the progressive agenda items Bernie is leading the fight on, as compared to more centrist ideas that are no longer in vogue. Or, as Bob Dylan would say... times, they are a changing!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[George II]

70. Not entirely. People like the concepts being presented, none of which are new and none of which....

...are Sanders'. Many have been introduced in one form or another since even before Sanders was Mayor of Burlington, as they have been for decades.

Not much is new.

The fact is, few of his agenda items have gone much beyond a concept with very little "meat on the bones" as they say, and although people do like them in concept they're not totally in favor of they way they might be implemented, with what little details they've seen.

[Buzz Lightyear]

25. Buttigieg at 1%

Same as Bill Diblasio.

[BannonsLiver]

39. Can't be the case.

Haven’t you seen all the enthusiasm for him on DU? Surely he must be ahead nationally, and by a comfortable margin too.

[TwilightZone]

48. He's now in third in Iowa.

Seems there's more enthusiasm for him than one might think, at least in Iowa. In one poll, anyway.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128738338

[BannonsLiver]

49. Enjoy the run.

[TwilightZone]

50. I haven't chosen a candidate.

Just pointing out that your assertion might be a tad premature. It's a long election cycle.

[BannonsLiver]

51. my point is his support inside DU doesn't mirror his support outside it.

And that’s not an assertion, it’s a fact. Like I said, enjoy the run.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

65. PB certainly has got my attention... what's with all the negativity and snarky

comments about him. Mayor Pete is a true progressive who cares about those less fortunate. He deserves our utmost respect, even from those that disagree with his policy positions.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[BlueFlorida]

36. Informative

Professor, perhaps a short paragraph on what an A rating for a poll means would have been helpful for some DUers so that it won't be discounted as being from "Fox" ... it is a logical response when one's candidate is falling behind.

[BannonsLiver]

38. I can't help but notice the disparity between Mayor Pete's numbers on DU

And his numbers in the real world, where the votes are counted.

[marlakay]

42. He is still a unknown I notice trying to go on

News, the view, townhalls, etc to get noticed instead of doing rallies. I think he is doing the right thing for now, not enough people know who he is to attend rallies and it would get put all over if he had small ones.

He does need to tour the country but that takes money. I heard he is starting to get more so maybe a tour is next.

[BannonsLiver]

43. I don't think he will win a single caucus or primary.

[marlakay]

45. I think he has great ideas and could do a great

Job for the country, but the charisma of Beto and Kamela, the fight of Bernie and Warren will get more attention.

I think Joe is in the lead only because he is the most well known and everyone loved Obama. All the other times he tried to run he got nowhere so once he’s in will be interesting to see if he can hold that lead.

I like Amy too she’s also a fighter but she needs to get more out there, either they are not showing her or she’s not as involved.

[oasis]

46. Biden's "official" entry should boost his numbers considerably. nt

[TexasBushwhacker]

74. Fine, but what is he waiting for?

April 1 so everyone can think it's a joke?

Shit or get off the pot Joe! Tick tock!

[Cha]

72. Emerson poll from March 19th..

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[oasis]

75. The solid judgement of Paul Krugman holds plenty weight w/me.

Thanks Cha, for posting his message along with the Emerson poll.

[Cha]

77. You're Welcome, oasis.

[RandySF]

76. Candidate support is fluid right now.