Three new polls out today

[Polybius]

Biden is up by 12, 8, and 5 in the three polls. Bernie in second in each one. Bloomberg at 5, 5, and 6. Biggest news is that Buttigieg is way down in all of them.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[madaboutharry]

1. I see Buttigieg maintaining 4th place nationally where he

has been for some time and I see him beating Trump by 5 points.

I guess we all don't see the same news.

[Polybius]

12. I see that too

But I also see him down in all three polls. Sorry if that hurts, but it’s true. My candidate is down too. It sucks.

[LeftTurn3623]

2. How is Pete way down?

Hasnt he always been polling national around 10? The numbers show he is pretty much the same place?

[StevieM]

10. He was starting to go up higher in the national polls, but Bloomberg is hurting him.

Last edited Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:49 PM - Edit history (1)

It seems like Buttigieg voters are the most likely to defect to Bloomberg, and that is showing up in the polls.

My BIL says he is planning to vote for Bloomberg, but he also likes Mayor Pete a lot. Hopefully if Buttigieg wins Iowa and New Hampshire that will lead many Bloomberg-leaners to switch over to Mayor Pete.

[Quackers]

19. I'll back Biden if Pete falls. No way will I support Bloomberg. nt

[Joinfortmill]

35. You're kidding right?

If you want to help save our Republic, vote Blue.

[Quackers]

37. Quit trying to bait people. nt

[beastie boy]

3. Curious. I expected Buttigieg to get a bit of a kick after the departure of Harris.

It appears that no candidate benefited from this event. Nor did Bloomberg's entry into the race affect the candidates' standings.

[StevieM]

11. I disagree. I think Bloomberg is taking votes disproportionately from Buttigieg.

And he is impacting his ability to maintain his momentum.

Pete needs to recognize this and start reminding people that Bloomberg supported Bush/Cheney in 2004.

[Polybius]

39. I think if Bloomberg ever makes it into the debates, he'll hurt Biden

They are very similar, and Bloomberg's money is no joke.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. Bernie is going steady and Biden will need to win NH and IA to keep his ever narrowing lead!

[SCantiGOP]

5. He will be competitive in NH and Iowa

And then win SC by about 30 points.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. That would be something!

Last edited Tue Dec 10, 2019, 08:47 PM - Edit history (1)

(Inaccurate information has been removed)

[OilemFirchen]

16. Y'know what would be something?

If you could cite even one poll backing up your assertion.

Standing by...

[Tiggeroshii]

20. It would be!

Because I cant.

I thought I saw that somewhere and am thoroughly mistaken. Likely mixed it up with NV.

He has a 19 point RCP average right now which is down from a 30-35 point lead in September, it looks like. I still dont think that will hold steady unless he wins at least one of the other states, too.

[Thekaspervote]

27. Umm don't know where those number came from... more like 20+

#NEW South Carolina @YouGov Poll:

Biden 40%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg11%
Warren 10%
Steyer 7%
Gabbard 5%
Yang 3%
Booker/Klobuchar 2%
Delaney/Patrick/Bloomberg 1%

RCP average for SC
Biden 35.3
Warren 16.3
Sanders 12.8

[Tiggeroshii]

34. Nevada.

They came from Nevada...


Sorry.

[Thekaspervote]

22. Indeed he will definitely be competitive in IA... IA & NH are going to play a very small roll in

The bigger picture

[Horizens]

6. Hogwash

History clearly demonstrates that Biden doesn't need to win either Iowa or NH to capture the nomination.

[Tiggeroshii]

8. He would need one to stay strong for super tuesday.

Otherwise the lead will be given to somebody else for the time until the next contest. History indicates that there is a strong advantage given to early state winners and momentum gained from those wins. Right now hes barely pulling a 9% lead in the only state that he is banking on to keep him going for super tuesday.

[George II]

18. See post #17

[Thekaspervote]

23. Right!! He will get some delegates out of IA and probably some out of NH but SC and NV

Are going to clarify things for him.

And no he doesn’t need either to win, as he will make a clean sweep of the south.

[George II]

17. Let's go through the four early states:

Iowa, 41 Delegates

Biden 16.3, 9 delegates
Warren 17.7, 9 delegates
Sanders 18.3, 10 delegates
Buttigieg 24.0, 13 delegates

New Hampshire, 24 Delegates

Biden 14.3, 0 delegates
Warren 13.7, 0 delegates
Sanders 17.0, 11 delegates
Buttigieg 20.0, 13 delegates

Nevada, 36 Delegates

Biden 29.3, 15 delegates
Warren 20.0, 11 delegates
Sanders 19.3, 10 delegates
Buttigieg 7.3, 0 delegates

South Carolina, 36 Delegates

Biden 35.3, 37 delegates
Warren 16.3, 17 delegates
Sanders 12.8 10 delegates
Buttigieg 6.5, 0 delegates

Net results - Biden 61, Warren 37, Sanders 31, Buttigieg 26 - This is with Biden "losing" both Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Tiggeroshii]

21. It is not likely there would be no shift following IA and NH before sc and nv.

History indicates that the winners of multiple early states effects the choices in later early states.


It is also not likely that the numbers dont shift before IA

[Thekaspervote]

25. Great breakdown... the numbers tell the story. Following Super Tuesday it will be very clear

[Polybius]

40. Those first two are old polls

Buttigieg doesn't have anywhere near that much support now.

[StevieM]

9. I think Bloomberg is stalling Mayor Pete's momentum.

Seriously, it is insane how many people are considering him, given that he supported Bush/Cheney in 2004.

[TryLogic]

15. Perhaps Bloomberg is looking for leverage to push persons other than Bernie or Liz.

Gotta fight for the billionaires, big banks, etc.

[Hortensis]

13. Good, but I admit I'm worried about what Sanders rising instead of

collapsing as people know him more, and others moving up, could indicate. Our enemies foreign and abroad are formidable.

[Tiggeroshii]

24. It means he will win. :)

[LanternWaste]

42. Just like last time... when his numbers were much better.

[Tiggeroshii]

43. No.

Every time is different.

[Thekaspervote]

26. Here's some interesting stats on bernie... he really isn't doing that well

Sanders got 40% of Democratic Primary vote in '16, he's running half that this time. Even if he got 100% of Warren's support, he'd still be behind his '16 vote total. thehill.com

[Hortensis]

30. Thanks. People should be more aware this time,

as that does reassuringly suggest. But still, to even be in contention above Democratic candidates at this point, instead of long settled into his basement of mostly his die-hard "no one but Sanders" supporters seems suspicious. What's causing his numbers to rise again, and why did his donations continue to rise before as his support dropped?

[Thekaspervote]

32. Just MHO I think he's regained some EW followers. All in all he still really isn't doing that well

[Hortensis]

36. Thanks. Good to hear since I tend to avoid watching him.

[Polybius]

38. Not the same thing this time around

In 2016 there were no serious challengers to Hillary. The entire Party wanted her to get the nomination. We do this sometimes, and it never ends well. Gore also received no serious challengers, because the Party thought it was "his turn." A crowded Primary is democratic.

In a crowded Democratic Primary (or Republican) like us this year and them in 2016, the first place winner doesn't even get anywhere near 40%, let alone the second.

[totodeinhere]

31. Maybe I am misunderstanding you. But are you suggesting that Sanders rising is a

result of our foreign enemies? If so I call BS on that. Bernie is not beholden to foreigners and i resent that implication.

[Sloumeau]

14. Polybius, thank you so much for posting this! :)

[Gothmog]

28. Here are some interesting polling results

Link to tweet

?

[onetexan]

29. K&R WOOHOO!!!

Go Joe!!

[Thekaspervote]

33. Do da... yippie skippie!!!

[Gothmog]

41. 538 Iowa polling average with tonight's Emerson poll included:

Link to tweet