CBS Battleground Tracker poll, IOWA: Sanders & Biden 22%, Buttigieg 21%, Warren 18%

[highplainsdem]

Posting the few results for indiividual states separately, for comparison to other recent polls for those states:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pete-buttigieg-rises-in-iowa-new-hampshire-biden-back-atop-delegate-hunt-cbs-news-poll/

[Thekaspervote]

1. Biden has definitely improved his numbers in IA... great!!

[Sloumeau]

2. highplainsdem, Thanks for the posting. This is awesome!

Sanders and Biden tied for first in Iowa! That is a nice improvement for Biden!

[Eradri]

3. Poll methodologies are important

It will be interesting to see which pollsters were using the best methodology for Iowa.

[boomer_wv]

5. This one

This CBS News survey is conducted by YouGov online between November 6 – 13, 2019. A
representative sample of 1,800 registered voters in Iowa was selected, including 856 self-identified
Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. Respondents from the first wave fielded May
31 – June 12, 2019, the second wave fielded July 9 – 18, 2019, the third wave fielded August
28 – September 4, 2019, and the fourth wave fielded October 3 – 11, 2019 were recontacted
to participate. Of the 3,747 respondents in the first four waves, 503 were re-interviewed — a
recontact rate of 13%.
This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based upon voter
registration lists and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2016 Presidential
vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters within Iowa. Of the
1,800 respondents, 589 respondents were selected from YouGov’s online panel, 424 respondents
were selected from Dynata’s online panel, 145 respondents were selected from Critical Mix’s online
panel, 137 respondents were selected from Precision Sample’s online panel, 227 respondents were
selected from Lucid’s online panel, and 278 were selected from P2 Sample’s online panel. The
weights range from 0.2 to 6.0, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.7.
The margin of error (a 95% confidence interval) for a sample percentage p based upon the entire
sample is approximately 2.8%. It is calculated using the formula

pˆ± 100 ⇥
s
1 + CV2
n

where CV is the coe

cient of variation of the sample weights and n is the sample size used
to compute the proportion. This is a measure of sampling error (the average of all estimates
obtained using the same sample selection and weighting procedures repeatedly). The sample
estimate should di?er from its expected value by less than margin of error in 95 percent of
all samples. It does not reflect non-sampling errors, including potential selection bias in panel
participation or in response to a particular survey.

Just an observation, but I listened to Nate Cohn discussing last week that they had discovered that not weighting for education was a significant factor in polls being off in 2016. This poll is weighting for education, FWIW.

[Cha]

4. KR!

[boomer_wv]

6. This poll....

It right within what we might expect to see based on other recent polling. It's a close race among the top 4 and I'd say right now each has about the same chance of finishing 4th as they do finishing 1st.

[highplainsdem]

7. Agreed.