RCP Average: Biden 28.3% Biden is clearly the front runner. It appears that Warren has declined

[Demsrule86]

beginning in October (after the debates?) and continuing into November



Biden is leading in the RCP average in all states except Monmouth where he is tied. Great news for Joe...he is as I stated before clearly the front runner and will go on IMHO to be our nominee in 20...Trump will lose in a landslide!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[Peacetrain]

1. But.. but.. but.. but..

that is not what they are telling me on the tv.. Its been over since last May.. and yet he leads in the polls.. it is driving them nuts.. If I see one more swoon on the fainting conch by a pundit, I am going to hurl..

[redstateblues]

3. Jinks you owe me a coke😀LOL

[Demsrule86]

4. Yep some have even combined two candidates in order to make it appear Biden is failing!

[Peacetrain]

6. I saw that!

you have to admit.. that was creative... do I get to add Buttigieg and Klobuchar in my numbers

[Demsrule86]

10. Very creative but they were 'mean' (kidding) and refused to allow us to combine all

other candidates...I would also just like to say again...there will be no brokered convention...Perez has opined it will be over by spring and I agree.

[Hortensis]

27. Agree. :) We can't go wrong betting against the election media.

Reminds me that back in the 1990s the late Cokie Roberts and her cable talking head group, when those things were new, apologized publicly and sincerely for being completely, shockingly wrong for about 3 elections.

Three was too many for everyone, though, so they moved to the now-traditional election-night pivot to total wisdom on whatever the new reality is. Each mentions some obscure remark dropped long before as CYA insurance, and before the next day is over all ante-election discussion is buried in the past of what is determinedly forgotten and not allowed to be regretted.

Politicians are hardly only ones corrupted by what it takes to keep their jobs in this environment.

[DarthDem]

38. Great Post

There should be a claim available for journalistic malpractice. It would also include actively doing everything you can to tear down a nominee (Gore, Hillary Clinton, and possibly Kerry).

[Demsrule86]

41. Hillary would be president today if not for some in the media.

[Demsrule86]

39. I had not heard the Cokie Roberts story...fascinating...and you are right...they will say they were

correct as Biden pulled it out or they said like you suggested xyz at some obscure time...

[redstateblues]

2. But but the talking heads say

Joe’s campaign has collapsed

[Demsrule86]

5. Many candidates out there wish they had a campaign 'collapsing' in this manner...haha.

[ritapria]

55. I wish Bernie was at 28%

[Demsrule86]

60. I think Bernie not Warren is in second place.

[Peacetrain]

7. Tag your it!!

[LakeArenal]

14. Is it still too early? "They"say it's early

Also I have heard Biden is out of money.
But somehow that doesn’t seem to diminish his support.

Watch now as Warren is up, the money will start coming in for another primary candidate that can’t win. Just to keep “the horse race” alive.

Joe will consistently stay in the top.
Because he will beat trump

[Demsrule86]

29. He will beat Trump

[brooklynite]

8. The Economist shows things closer...

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[Demsrule86]

11. this is an average and in these polls Biden leads...he also leads in the ecnomist...if you look at

the graph...Warren is trending downward.

[Hortensis]

26. The current dynamic shows the downside to getting more attention.

Yes, people liked her on getting acquainted with her, we all like her, but then a few big details about a couple of her plans became better known.

The clue to electability isn't doing well when the media and RW mostly leave candidates alone, of course, but how they fare when they don't. In spite of Trump's nonsense, so far criticism has been pretty light and limited mostly to her big plans.

[Demsrule86]

30. Very true. And I think she has made some mistakes of late too.

[Hortensis]

37. Imo, misjudging the wishes of most electoral groups is a mistake.

Only the brave and bold could try to ride a giant wave to great change they hope to create, but it looks like she got carried away by a rather extreme vision only a minority share.

I put it on Sanders. No one would have thought to join the right in passionate opposition to Obamacare if he hadn't lead them for his own reasons and, of course, if RW enemies of the ACA, including those controlling much of the MSM, hadn't made the most of what he was doing.

[Demsrule86]

40. I am totally pissed about this...Sanders and Warren to a lesser extent risks hurting or helping

destroy the ACA which is all we have or may ever have...millions of people depend on this. I went to Fox to watch them suffer after the election and heard a this...clearly they are trying to use M4A to destroy the ACA.

[Hortensis]

44. Absolutely to that last, but of course Elizabeth would

never want that. She's an ethical Democrat and not someone who'd regard America losing national healthcare altogether under the Republicans as self validation and proof of Democratic corruption. And of course wanting to build even bigger for itself is in a different universe from a desire to destroy the Obama admin's great achievement.

My feeling has always been that not strongly differentiating and distancing herself from Sanders would hurt her, and essentially embracing his MfA of course did not help.

[Demsrule86]

45. Regardless of her intent...the ACA is still being injured. I agree she would not do this on purpose.

[Hortensis]

46. Have to agree. But they'll lose, as they should. Others

have too much sense to embark on such an unnecessarily very dangerous and delaying course. Sanders doesn't seem to believe the Republicans would be a problem if he just could get past our obstruction, but she knows they see MfA as a cornucopia of weapons and opportunities.

[Demsrule86]

47. I know.

[Gothmog]

9. Nate agrees

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

12. Thanks Gothmog...I appreciate that. I suggest everyone needs to look at this.

[Thekaspervote]

22. Great tweet from Nate Silver... the expert at 538 weighs in!

[Demsrule86]

15. Quite true and I don't find fault with you analysis...I would simply point out that in all cases

Biden still leads...despite near constant attacks.

[Demsrule86]

17. Warren has lost some ground since the last debate I think...and perhaps the MFA issues...

so I am not sure we can expect her numbers to rise in all states as she campaigns...some no doubt. But I expect Biden's numbers to rise in the same manner.

[Demsrule86]

19. Time will tell.

[kstewart33]

24. Her M4All plan is likely the culprit.

I've yet to read a positive piece about it and for good reason. It's too much change too quickly and no one knows how changing 20% of the economy will turn out.

I'm hoping she sets it aside and goes for building on Obamacare.

[AtheistCrusader]

32. The messaging was... late to the party in my opinion.

I like it, but this should have been clear a long time ago.

It's a complex issue, and complex issues need a LOT of messaging runway in the United States. Especially when facts are involved.

[Demsrule86]

33. I have not either...and I don't get why she doubles down on it...now I don't know if she could

walk it back.

[AtheistCrusader]

20. "near constant attacks"

everyone feels this way about their candidate. It's called confirmation bias.

[Skittles]

25. and what's disconcerting is

they ain't seen NOTHING yet

[AtheistCrusader]

31. Right?

Whoever the nominee is, needs to be made out of the same shit the re-entry tiles on the Space Shuttle were made with.

It's going to be insane. It's going to be overwhelming. It'll be relentless. It'll be ridiculous. It'll be mostly outright lies.
And with Trump's base and a good chunk of the middle... it'll be effective. We have to successfully weather what Hillary endured last time, PLUS MORE, and also flip electoral votes.

There's some early positive indications, but the general is a long way off, and shit can change in a hurry.

[Demsrule86]

35. I don't agree...the fat orange shit face has gone all out...with ads already against Biden and yet

he continues as the front runner.

[AtheistCrusader]

64. Wait, you actually think that's 'all out'?

I suggest you start building a fallout shelter for the General Election.

[Demsrule86]

65. I suggest you do the same should your candidate mostly unvetted be our nominee...I will vote blue no

matter who...but Biden has faced scathing attacks from the media, pollsters and supporters of other candidates...I submit Warren has faced very little shit. And despite it all, Biden is still the front runner. As he is very well known he can face anything the GOP has and still win.

[AtheistCrusader]

66. Oh I have.

I fully expect the unrelenting torrent of mostly false shit, that will be inbound, whether it's Biden or Warren.

Please just keep in mind, what we've already seen that you feel is scathing, is NOTHING compared to what is coming. That's all. I'm within you on the ticket though, even if my favored candidate isn't on it.

[Demsrule86]

34. Biden has been attacked starting with Flores and Anita...and how he is failing constantly.

He is the front runner so I suppose that is to be expected.

[cwydro]

23. Time will tell.

[Kurt V.]

28. pretty depressing. so it goes.

[Demsrule86]

36. I don't know. I hope we have a candidate who can win...and that is the most important thing...

the would be orange dictator must be defeated.

[oasis]

42. Joe keeps on keeping on.

[Demsrule86]

43. Yes he does.

[Xandric77]

48. True for national polls

Correct.

[gopiscrap]

68. welcome to DU

[Gothmog]

49. Here is a good observation from Nate

Link to tweet

[Joe941]

50. Looks like Bernie is surging at Warren's expense.

[LakeArenal]

51. Joe consistently leads because he's the most qualified both nationally and globally.

[Demsrule86]

52. I agree

[NewsCenter28]

57. I no longer support Joe. He has proven himself to be unelectable -n/t

[Demsrule86]

58. I know being the front runner is so disqualifying.

[LakeArenal]

62. Yes and having the most experience will kill a guy.

Also the that liked by everyone thing is such a losing position.

Sarcasm thingie “X” here.

[empedocles]

53. Now it's Buttigieg's time to 'surge' for a while.

[LakeArenal]

54. !!

[Demsrule86]

59. Well clearly someone has to surge to support the narrative...Biden is doomed...

[Cha]

56. KICK!

[PhoenixDem]

61. K&R n/t

[boomer_wv]

63. Warren...

Isn't a very good politician. She underperforms even in deep blue Massachusetts and her plans don't stand up to scrutiny. Then, when someone has the nerve to point this out, she goes on a rant about how they're just republicans in disguise. She just puts off this vibe like she thinks she's always the smartest person in the room and nobody should ever question her.

That's what happens when you spend decades in the ivory tower.

[Gothmog]

67. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

Link to tweet