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bluewater

(5,376 posts)
Wed Oct 16, 2019, 05:03 PM Oct 2019

538: Which candidates performed the best? (spoiler: Warren)



First, we wanted to see which candidates impressed the viewers we surveyed. To do this, we compared each candidate’s pre-debate favorability1 to debate-watchers’ rating of their performance to see if any well-liked candidates disappointed during the debate or if any less-liked candidates received good ratings. By this metric, Klobuchar and Buttigieg were the two candidates who exceeded expectations given their pre-debate favorables, though Warren still received the highest debate grade overall.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-october-democratic-debate-in-6-charts/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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538: Which candidates performed the best? (spoiler: Warren) (Original Post) bluewater Oct 2019 OP
This matches my perception, Warren handled the pressure very well. HeartlandProgressive Oct 2019 #1
Her and Sanders put on a show. HerbChestnut Oct 2019 #2
That's not what the chart is trying to say. boomer_wv Oct 2019 #3
Warren is clearly Highest on the Debate Performance axis bluewater Oct 2019 #4
Yeah. boomer_wv Oct 2019 #5
Yeah, but as they say "correlation is not causation" ;) bluewater Oct 2019 #6
Rec. cwydro Oct 2019 #7
 
1. This matches my perception, Warren handled the pressure very well.
Wed Oct 16, 2019, 06:48 PM
Oct 2019


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
2. Her and Sanders put on a show.
Wed Oct 16, 2019, 06:51 PM
Oct 2019

Biden was, well, Biden, and the rest were trying to take the others (i.e. Warren) down. Don't know if this debate changes polling numbers, but it shows that candidates are becoming more desperate to get attention.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

boomer_wv

(673 posts)
3. That's not what the chart is trying to say.
Wed Oct 16, 2019, 06:56 PM
Oct 2019

The trendline is the expected performance rating based on pre debate favor ability. The best debate performances are the ones that most outperformed their expected potions.That would be Pete and Amy.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bluewater

(5,376 posts)
4. Warren is clearly Highest on the Debate Performance axis
Wed Oct 16, 2019, 06:59 PM
Oct 2019

You are misinterpreting the chart.

Warren had the best debate performance. She is highest on the Debate Performance axis which measured "how well respondents who watched the debate thought each candidate did"


But, 538 does say that Klobuchar and Buttigieg did exceed expectations the most based on their favorability coming in. THAT is where the distance from the trendline is relevant, only in exceeding expectations. Hence 538's heading asking "which candidate made an outsized impression" i.e. who did better than expected based on their favorability entering the debate.

But, in absolute terms, according to 538's post debate polling, Warren had the best performance.

And she also happened to be above the "expectations" trend line too.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

boomer_wv

(673 posts)
5. Yeah.
Wed Oct 16, 2019, 07:18 PM
Oct 2019

But that's the whole point of the trendline. Her high pre-debate popularity explains a lot of her debate evaluations. People who like her gave her higher ratings, whether she really did better or not. We can see how well this tracks, there is undeniable correlation between those two things on the chart.

This is also a poll of debate watchers, which skew to a demographic that she does well with. In a day or two we will start seeing polls that tell more of a story, if voters were impacted.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bluewater

(5,376 posts)
6. Yeah, but as they say "correlation is not causation" ;)
Wed Oct 16, 2019, 07:30 PM
Oct 2019

"favorabilty" is a vaguely defined characteristic. Voters might just be "favoring" the more competent, smarter candidates who also happen to be experienced debaters, hence the correlation.

In any case, the one indisputable fact, according to the 538 post debate poll Warren had the best performance of the night.

Thanks for the discussion.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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