I report. You infer. Are Democratic Primary Voters Feeling "The Bern"?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Bernie Sanders has a lot going for him. He’s got almost universal name recognition, campaign infrastructure and an active small-dollar donor base (which has already helped him rake in $6 million since his announcement on Tuesday). His 'tell it like it is' style earned him admiration from cynical voters tired of polished politicians who say one thing on the trail and do another in office. Oh, he’s also got merch. Lots and lots of it.

What he lacks is his biggest asset from 2016: a one vs. one contest for the nomination. Back in 2016, Sanders was defined as much by who he wasn’t (Hillary Clinton) as by who he was (the democratic socialist). Where she was cautious and calculated, he was authentic and daring. Where she played to the middle, he played to the outside. Today, there’s no Clinton to push off against. And, there are plenty of other candidates who are competing for Sanders’ "authentic" agitator lane.

Here’s what struck me as well. There’s decidedly less enthusiasm for Sanders among Democratic voters than one might expect for a candidate who has come to define many aspects of the current Democratic policy agenda.

Despite Sanders’ strong showing in the 2016 primary, he’s averaging just 17 percent of the vote in national polling today. In New Hampshire, a state where he crushed Clinton with 60 percent of the vote, a new poll shows the Vermont Senator in second place - trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by eight points. Sanders came this close to winning the Iowa Caucuses in 2016, but a December Des Moines Register/CNN poll found him taking 19 percent of the vote — a distant second behind Biden’s 32 percent.
...

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/are-democratic-primary-voters-feeling-bern

[democratisphere]

1. Berned out.

[dubyadiprecession]

2. No

Bernie will have to wait his turn like everyone else.
It’s Biden Time!

[crazytown]

3. Well, I find it fascinating that a DU hardhat

has declared for Harris at such an early stage. There can’t be too much flake/shark behind her candidacy. I’ll give her platform more attention. ‘Wow’

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I really am undecided but I wanted to give her a lead on the board.

[crazytown]

5. Ha! That's the DemocratSinceBirth I remember

from my denem days. After weeks of critically questioning the Obama campaign, you came back and said, ‘I’ve drunk the kook-aid’ ... if my memory serves me correctly.

[crazytown]

6. or maybe that was grantcart

The insiders view of the LDS in 2012 was a riot. Live long and prosper.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I was for HRC in 2008 but I have come to greatly admire Barack Obama.

He belongs in the pantheon of great presidents along with John Kennedy, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. A lot of things I said about LDS I regret

Even relatively benign religious bigotry regardless of the target is wrong. That being said Joseph Smith held some ugly views about black people. Can't blame current practitioners of the faith for that though.

[crazytown]

14. OK

I thought at the time you were speaking personally. You gave up the opportunity to walk in as ‘royalty’ of a sort. Anyway, best wishes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. That must have been someone else.

I know I made some remarks about Joseph Smith and temple garments.

[crazytown]

17. OK

Let’s leave it at that. Bis bald.

[peggysue2]

9. If Joey Biden enters the race the entire . . .

election calculus changes. If he wants this, has the 'fire in the belly', he'll shoot to the top and stay there. Because no one has the qualifications, experience and ability to take the Trumpster to the cleaners more than Biden. People trust him and he can eat into the working class vote.

He's not perfect, anymore than any of our candidates would be. The Anita Hill debacle will hang around his neck and his voting/policy record will be examined under a microscope. He has a lo-o-ong record to defend.

But still, I think he could win this thing. If he wants it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. My buddy has a theory

That if he gets in the race he and Bernie will immediately start bickering and it will look like two old guys fighting and a third candidate will be the beneficiary.

[peggysue2]

12. That's always possible. Not a bad theory either

But I give Joe Biden props in the politics department.

We shall see.

[R B Garr]

15. I doubt Biden would be the only one Sanders bickers with.

His whole aim at our party is like that, not just Biden (or Hillary).

[crazytown]

18. Biden v Bernie would be nasty.

They go way back.

[R B Garr]

19. So were Sanders attacks on Clinton. nt

[crazytown]

21. Yeah but Hillary did not respond in kind.

Joe wouldn’t smile and shake his head. There’s too much at stake. My 2c.

[R B Garr]

22. True, she just took it. I don't think anyone should just

stay silent at his attacks, no need to let him get away with any more undermining my party. I’m not sure of the exact background you’re referencing, though. My 2cents, too.

[LongtimeAZDem]

26. I disagree, but I could live with that as a result.

I think Biden would look like Grandpa, and Sanders would be the crazy uncle nobody wants to sit next to.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

38. Joe is too smart for that.

[peggysue2]

11. PS: No I don't feel the Bern

Didn't feel it the first time out

[CentralMass]

13. Well this Realclearpolitics Democratic Primary poll from 2/17 shows him in 2nd.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

He is behind Joe Biden and ahead of Kamala Harris and it doesn't have his announcment bump yet
I will be curious to see the next one.

[honest.abe]

20. With about 100% name recognition that is hardly anything to brag about.

His "announcement bump" will likely be more than offset by his preposterous choice of Nina Turner as campaign manager.

[CentralMass]

33. The general public has no clue who these candidates assistant campaign , or campaign managers are .

And they don't care.

He raised $5.9 million dollars in the first 24 hours from 220,000 individual donors. By sending an email.

The math works out to be the legendary $27 dollar per contribution.

[honest.abe]

39. Primary voters tend to know those things.

But for sure many wont know or dont care. Bernie will benefit from the public's ignorance and apathy.

[CentralMass]

40. First of all, the Bernie haters who villianize him do not represent the thinking outside of that

partisan group.

No one thst i know outside of the above mentioned group has changed their opinion on Bernie and his agenda.
The fundraising on day one from his very low key announcement demostrate that.

I make no predictions on who will when the primary but I get the the strong impression that many of you will not vote for him in the general if he should win the orimary in numbers that rival 2008 with Hillary supporters who did not vote for Senator Obama.

[honest.abe]

41. You would be wrong.

I suspect virtually everyone on this board would walk through red hot coals to vote for Bernie, if he somehow miraculously won the Dem nomination, to stop Trump or whatever goon the Republicans put up as their nominee.

BTW, I was an hard core Obama supporter in 2008. The anti-Obama Hillary people in 2008 pissed me off almost as much as the anti-Hillary Bernie people in 2016. My goal is to defeat the Republicans.. period.

[CentralMass]

42. Then the negative energy being put into this is not constructive.

[honest.abe]

43. We would all be better off if Bernie stayed out of this race.

He will only create more and more turmoil as he did in 2016.

[CentralMass]

45. Many of us do not agree.

[R B Garr]

44. That old fundraising storyline has some glitches in it, considering

that there were unresolved FEC flags from the last time. It’s not the same dynamic that you are trying to suggest.

Of course the general public will know about the Russian interference, so to say that they don’t care about Nina Turner is just wishful thinking. Hillary won the popular vote so of course people will be aware of who was actually villianized and it wasn’t Bernie.

[BannonsLiver]

23. According to his DU supporters Bernie has it in the bag and we're all wasting our time.

I think I’ll go ahead and see how things play out.

[CentralMass]

34. Link (s) ?

[BannonsLiver]

35. Breathless touting of polls and fundraising

You’ve seen them. I’m not your mom. I’m not here to cut up your vegetables and make sure you drink your milk. Find them yourself.

[CentralMass]

37. Nothing breathless about it. Pure facts. You are the one opining.

I wouldn't venture a guess if you are breathless or not.

[TCJ70]

24. I'm down for him to be in the race...

...compare all the candidates stances and choose the one closest to how you think things should be. A variety of options is a good thing.

[scheming daemons]

30. He's not going to "hold his numbers". Most of his 2016 supporters were an anti-Clinton vote....

....not a pro-Bernie vote.


He'll lose more than half... and probably closer to 3/4ths... of his voters.


The anti-Clinton voters had nowhere else to turn in 2016... this year, they do.

[DBoon]

27. Bernie's 15 minutes were up long ago

He played an essential role in moving the Democratic consensus positions leftwards.

Other candidates have taken up much of what was best of his positions

We need someone who can win and I'm afraid it isn't Bernie this time

[CentralMass]

36. Well in the first 24 houts after he sent out the announcement email he raised

$ 6 million from 220,000 individual contributors.

Back where I come from we define that as a high levrl of interest.

[leftofcool]

28. Nope. Not now, not ever.

[katmondoo]

29. NO

[brooklynite]

31. "Democratic Primary Voters" aren't feeling anything

The only people engaged at this point are Party activists and political junkies. I'm willing to bet the average Democratic voter couldn't name three actual candidates.

[MineralMan]

32. My take on this is that Bernie Sanders retained the core of his supporters

from the last election. That's not surprising, and all those $27 donors will send him $27 again, probably more than once. However, that group is far from enough to win the Democratic Primary. That was proven by his loss in the primary race in 2016. Unfortunately, he appears now to focused again on that group. In nominating Nina Turner as co campaign chair, he is appealing directly to the Our Revolution bloc, which didn't do all that well in the 2018 mid-term election in getting their endorsed candidates elected.

Bernie's 2016 primary loss is surely a factor in 2020. The number of other primary candidates is also a factor. Each of them brings a group of supporters who might have supported Sanders before, but who have shifted their loyalties now. Voters are notoriously fickle.

If I were to advise Senators Sanders on a plan to win, I would first tell him to make his tax returns public immediately. Next, I would tell him to reconsider having as a campaign manager someone who supported Jill Stein over Hillary as the general election came near. People remember that, and they remember his not making his tax returns available. Those who didn't like those things like them even less now.

Frankly, I think Bernie Sanders used up his chance to be a serious Presidential candidate already. Voters will sometimes let someone who lost in the primaries run again in a future election, but that's not all that common. Others were concerned with Bernie's age in the 2016 election. He has not gotten any younger, and those concerns have not lessened in those who had them before.

I welcome his participation as a primary candidate, but don't hold out a lot of hope for its success. As I would have done in 2016, I will certainly vote and campaign for him if he becomes the Democratic nominee. I doubt he will, though.

[Garrett78]

46. No polls are worth a damn at this point. For Sanders, the bottom line is this:

If he doesn't do much, much better than last time among POC and non-millennial women, he's done for after New Hampshire.

With his severe case of foot-in-mouth disease, I think he's done for after New Hampshire.

Plus, there will be far fewer caucuses. And he benefited greatly from being in a 1-on-1 race against someone who had been vilified for a quarter of a century.