Biden will be the nominee

[evertonfc]

Joe isn't my first choice or my second but barring some catastrophic event, he's already been vetted and will be the nominee. I also think, after talking to my activist friends in Atlanta that he will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate ( they seem to think the two have already discussed it). Agian, just my guy and early prediction from 30 years of working in the trenches.

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

1. I think you are right, but...

...I also think there's an outside chance that he chooses Eric Holder.

[redstatebluegirl]

4. I heard that at a party meeting a month or so ago.

Eric Holder would be a fabulous choice for VP.

[Demsrule86]

64. He would be a great choice...hadn't thought of him.

[samnsara]

6. wow that would be great too!

[woodsprite]

31. Oooh, hadn't heard that possibility! That would be good as well. nt

[Thekaspervote]

114. Eric holder would be great... I really like Susan Rice as well.

[crazytown]

63. Eric Holder

of the DOJ that let the 'too big to jail' Wall Street execs skip free? Well, that would be a signal and a half wouldn't it?

[SMC22307]

84. Yep. Not to mention "Fast and Furious"... let's just hand the election to Trump.

His voters won't sweat the details, but that will be the equivalent of "but her emails!". NO ERIC HOLDER.

[vsrazdem]

2. I think it will be Warren as the nominee.

[redstateblues]

58. She has to show she can win the rust belt. Right now she's tied with Trump-Biden is up 9

https://www.cbs58.com/news/biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-in-wisconsin-mu-law-poll

[Demsrule86]

65. No, it won't. She isn't winning the AA community and should they move it will be for

Kamala...who is more to the center...I doubt they will move.

[Thekaspervote]

113. This!!

[Demsrule86]

118. This is not the same as Obama/ Clinton in 08...Obama was liked by AA community...they

just wanted to make sure he could win...they liked the Clinton also...Obama didn't have to win AA voters he just had to reassure them. They already liked him and supported his policy plans. This is not true for Warren. First of all,she is a woman and AA know only to well about the sexism prevalent in our society so they have to be convinced she can win, but she also has to get them to support her left leaning policies like MFA and then like her...I don't see that happening.

[iwannaknow]

69. Let's wait til we get a few primaries under our belt

[vsrazdem]

70. Probably just wishful thinking.

[ElementaryPenguin]

123. I don't think declaring she'll shut down Facebook is going to help her politically.

[Sherman A1]

3. Perhaps

but it is far too early to know or really even guess.

[samnsara]

5. i dont think he will pick Stacey..and Im not sure he will pick Warren either..

..theres too much daylight between their health care proposals. I always thought a Biden/Harris ticket was my dream team but not any more. Frankly I would like Amy to be veep. I like her a lot.

[highplainsdem]

8. Why don't you think he'll pick Stacey Abrams?

[Hortensis]

36. I don't either. Stacey was a member of GA's house,

including as the permanently minority Democratic caucus's leader for a while. Then she ran for governor and became famous for being the object of blatant election theft. That's not exactly the same as being governor and bringing that experience with her. She's a famous black woman, but to me that seems to be a very slim resume for someone who'd not only have to play a significant role in winning the election but be first in succession to a president in his 70s.

Plus, Biden wants the same kind of relationship he and Obama had. He and Stacey may like what they've seen of each other briefly, but they aren't old friends and they've never worked together. To my mind there's just no reason to zero on her and ignore all of the many other names that might be on his private short list.

Btw, something like 10% of GA's black men who voted for Obama did not vote for Stacey to become GA's first black governor. Whatever their individual thinking, as a group the effect was to choose for a white male Republican enemy as their governor over a black liberal Democratic woman.

[Merlot]

77. My guess is that Biden will pick a guy like Bullock

with the excuse that "he wins in red states" and is a centrist candidate.

If this happens as I think, it will dissapoint and demoralize a large wing of the democratic party. While they will still vote for Biden, they won't be doing it with any enthusiasm.

I like Abrams a lot (notice I didn't call her Stacy while calling all the men by their last names...) but I don't think she's going to be the VP nomination. Right now she's being very effective as a voting access activist, she's got a great political future. Call me cynical, but that meeting between Biden and Abrams seemed like nothing more than Bidens signaling something that he would not follow through with.

[Hortensis]

85. I doubt it. He has too many good possibilities who won't disappoint.

I wouldn't call you cynical. Instead, I suspect your political preferences are driving how you want to believe Biden is thinking.

No matter who any of our possible nominees might choose as a running mate, we can be sure some people will be disappointed in either and/or both. So what? Big pffft! to the defeatist, media-fed delusion that a candidate should be able to generate enthusiasm in 100 million people. This is the real world with real people. What matters are trust and confidence that the choice is one that should be supported.

As for the VP, it's easy for political groupies to lose track during primary season of the reality that most people, including ultimately most of them, don't care all that much about who the running mate is, only that he or she help The Candidate win. Even a majority of AAs, determined to keep fighting their way forward and to grab every opportunity to do so, seem most concerned with getting a Democratic president elected this time.

I agree about taking care with names. I slipped and called her Stacey because I'm from GA and we often call her Stacey, or at one time "one of the Staceys." She also stands alone, not as one of our Democratic candidates, all of whom I usually also call by their surnames.

[onetexan]

102. With GA having 2 senate seats open i say Stacy should run for one of them

[Thekaspervote]

115. This... Stacy has a very bright future. She should continue to seek higher office. If not in GA

Then maybe move to a state that would give her a better chance. Hey Stacy we have a great new dem gov here in Illinois...lots of possibilities here

[Funtatlaguy]

117. She wants to be Governor. She doesn't want Senate.

[onetexan]

105. Agree re: Abrams. She shld run for senate. VEEP pick shld be Beto.

[MontanaFarmer]

27. Oh i don't think Harris is off the table at all.

Primary skirmishes are just that. Easy to forget now, but Hillary and Obama were pretty contentious in 2008, then became strong allies. Joe once upon a time said Obama was too young and naive in 2008; now listen to him gush. My point is that if it's Harris that gives him the best chance to win (I'd love her or Amy klobuchar), she'll be on the ticket.

[Gothmog]

87. I like the concept of Biden/Harris ticket

[ElementaryPenguin]

122. I used to like it - until she attacked him.

Doesn't Biden poll higher with black voters than Kamala does?

[WheelWalker]

34. I really like Amy, as well. My money for a Biden running mate is still Susan Rice, however.

[Celerity]

90. Picking Rice instantly tosses the Benghazi stinkbomb out into the arena

even though it is a bullshit RW meme. I do not see risk-adverse Biden going there.

[Tarheel_Dem]

60. Like you, I once dreamed of a Biden/Harris ticket, and like you, I don't really want that anymore.

I never thought of Amy before, but I think they'd be great partners.

[Demsrule86]

66. I wouldn't pick Warren...we lose Senate seat potentially and what does she bring geographically in

the states we need? He needs to consider the South, the Mid West and maybe Texas. I heard a suggestion...Tammy Duckworth...she is great too.

[onetexan]

103. Biden/Beto would help win TX

[Demsrule86]

119. I like that combination but can Beto win Texas?

I like Tammy Duckworth a great deal too...she is a hero and a new Mom...

[onetexan]

120. The polls are showing Beto doing well in Tx and he's very popular here

I believe its possible.

[ElementaryPenguin]

121. I agree. I'm betting Biden/Beto will end up being the ticket.

[dflprincess]

99. If Joe, Bernie, or Elizabeth is the nominee

they need to pick someone younger for the VP slot. Two seventy somethings on the ballot just isn't going to work. (And I'll be 70 in 4 years, so don't jump me about that).

Besides, if Elizabeth isn't at the top of the ticket, I'd rather she stay in the Senate where she can fight for what she believes in rather than being stuck singing back up.

[Ninga]

7. I do not agree. It's way too early to determine who the nominee will be. The primary

process is a grind, and with such a large field, the ultimate nominee will have run the marathon.

All bets are off in comparison to 2016 and other past elections. We do not even know for certain, if the cretinous mess will be the GOP nominee.

Voters are paying attention much earlier in the primary process. It’s a wait and see.

[MBS]

48. I totally agree that "All bets are off in comparison to 2016 and other past elections."

It's WAY too early to predict the nominee, not to mention VP picks, given the number of nominees and the volatile state of our society right now.

[True Dough]

53. Waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early!

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!

^^^^^^^^

[MBS]

57. Agreed!!!

All these predictions remind me of forecasters trying to predict the path and intensity of Dorian last week, when it was still forming. At that early point, One meteorologist said, “Anyone who tells you they know exactly what’s going to happen next is lying.” Or are simply wrong.

This election strikes me as less predictable even than hurricanes. In both cases, you know they’re coming. But as for the detailed outcome, you just won’t know until shortly before it arrives.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

9. We need a progressive visionary... not a moderate incrimentalist if we want to guarantee defeating

the tRumpster fire occupying the White House.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[LincolnRossiter]

10. Biden is the best choice for (1) defeating Trump and (2) pursuing actual workable policies that

reverse the damage Trump’s caused.

We need a progressive visionary... not a moderate incrimentalist if we want to guarantee defeating

Nah

[oasis]

24. 100%

[empedocles]

26. A progressive visionary greatly increases the chances of a 'con win.

Just ask the Dem 2018 flippers, who seized control of the House for the Dems

[LincolnRossiter]

37. Kennedy was more conservative than Biden is. He was a pragmatic liberal, like Biden.

Bobby was the Warren equivalent.

[LincolnRossiter]

44. Kennedy pushed a huge tax cut through, slow walked civil rights when necessary to placate

the racist half of his party, was an ardent free-trader, was a strident anti-communist who stood down the Soviets at every turn and blockaded their Cuban allies, escalated our involvement in Vietnam, appointed a justice who dissented on Roe v. Wade, attempted to rein-in non-military or NASA spending, supported oil and gas exploration, and generally governed non-ideologically (except as an anti-communist).

Kennedy was not considered a raging liberal in his day on any issue save race. And he even took a measured (some think too measured) approach on that issue. He certainly wouldn't be considered liberal in today’s Democratic Party. And he’d certainly be to the right of Biden. I admire Kennedy for his vision and boldness relative to his times. But he was not a 50s-60s version of Warren or Sanders.

[Gothmog]

88. Biden was at his most focused when he was fighting against the ravages of Trump.

Link to tweet

[McKim]

11. We need a candidate that appeals to young voters.

We need a candidate that appeals to young voters. The Left is growing in the US and progressive ideas are becoming a common consensus in the public sphere.

[OKNancy]

16. From an article I just read:

It's an iron fact that a vote cast with gusto counts no more than a vote made with detachment. Furthermore, a 23-year-old's vote punches at no greater weight than a 73-year-old's.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/09/05/curb_your_enthusiasms_bidens_the_one_141172.html

[highplainsdem]

17. We need a candidate who appeals to reliable voters, and who can win the electoral college.

Democrats who describe themselves as "very liberal" are still a minority of the party, and Biden leads with those who describe themselves as "somewhat liberal" or "moderate" Democrats. (And IMO even moderate Democrats are actually liberal, just not as far left as "very liberal" Dems.)


If we nominate a candidate who's on the far left of the party, it's possible we can run up popular-vote totals in states that are already Democratic strongholds that would vote for a nominee who isn't that far left, and then lose the electoral college by a margin wider than in 2016.

Telling ourselves "Well, at least our nominee was a true progressive!" will be cold comfort the day after election day next year, if Trump is re-elected.

And even if we managed somehow to get a far-left Democrat into the White House, you still have to get legislation through Congress.

Biden was able to talk a few Republican senators into supporting the stimulus bill in 2009. He managed that even though McConnell was doing his best to block it and keep Republican senators from going along with anything Obama wanted. It wouldn't have passed without their support.

And he was able to talk one of those Republican senators, Arlen Specter, into switching parties and becoming a Democrat, giving us the 60 votes we needed to pass the ACA without a single Republican vote.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287262162


Biden opponents have argued that he couldn't do that now because Republicans are more extreme. But they were determined to block Obama from day one, and Biden still got around them.

And if GOP lawmakers are so extreme Biden couldn't get any cooperation from them now, there's very little chance a more leftwing Democrat could.

[peggysue2]

19. That's it, right there in one sentence

Telling ourselves "Well, at least our nominee was a true progressive!" will be cold comfort the day after election day next year, if Trump is re-elected.

We need our eyes on the prize. And the prize is kicking Trump and his enablers to the curb and fully repudiating Trump and Trumpism. Which is why choosing a candidate with the widest appeal and reach is so important for 2020.

[onetexan]

106. Great points

[qazplm135]

18. I mean I don't want Biden either but

the reality is appealing to young voters does what?

They don't vote. They never have. They never will.

At their best they still don't equate to the levels of older voters.

Every generation we say now THESE young kids, they are the ones that will break the pattern.

And then, they don't. Again.

[emmaverybo]

47. Well, can we talk? Maybe our party should think about appealing to older, reliable voters and stop

lop-sidedly courting the young vote. We laugh at 73 year olds at our peril. Baby boomers are a large demographic, diverse, and well engaged politically or engageable. Not a vote we should take for granted.

[qazplm135]

52. the problem with that approach

is that group is dying off and they are often so set in their ways that no progress happens.
Sure, they vote, but what they vote for isn't always what needs to be done.

The correct answer is to stop worrying about "appealing" to a particular set of voters.

Voters will respond to authenticity. Just be authentic.

Obama, Bill, Reagan, these were authentic candidates who were comfortable in their own skin. Different political philosophies, approaches and they appealed to different groups and coalitions, but they shared heightened authenticity.

[emmaverybo]

56. Good point. I amend. We should do outreach to the young as well as older voters. We must build

our party. Strong gun legislation platform is one way we appeal to younger voters.

We should also be doing rural outreach, and as I suggested in a previous thread, outreach to neglected constituents, younger Asian-American and Pacific-Island-American voters.

[Amimnoch]

33. 51% in right combination in PA, OH, WI,MI,FL, and AZ to get 270.

It's about the map!
It's about the map!
IT'S ABOUT THE MAP!!!!

It doesn't matter if the candidate energizes the electorate in California.. or Oregon.. or Washington.. or New York.. or Illinois..

Sadly, the more this campaign season goes on, it also isn't looking like my state of Texas is going to be in play either..

270 electoral college votes is what it takes.

Have to energize enough to hit a >270 electoral votes by having >50% voting in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Arizona.. Enough states to get to that 270 number.

I'd think we'd have it in our heads by now that popular vote does NOT necessarily equal a win!

California, Oregon, Washington, New York etc... - whomever wins our primary will almost definitely get their electoral votes.. same with all the solid blue states.
Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Nebraska etc.. Trump's got them.. not changing their electoral votes.. same with all the rest of the solid red states.

Battleground states, and the candidate that will get them at least 1 vote over 50%.. What energizes THOSE voters to come out in force for OUR candidate.. That's what will win.

Abrams would be a good choice, it could put Georgia's 16 EC votes into this crucial battleground column.

[Doremus]

40. How did the moderate candidate do in the EC last time again?

Agree with your point.

Energizing voters DOES matter in the states that matter. 80K voters who stayed home last time will attest.

[Demsrule86]

61. Apples and oranges ...not enough younguns turned out to make a difference...they rarely do

better appealing to likely voters.

[lapucelle]

91. Wait...what?

Based on the nominee's actual record, it appears that the blame lies with the lazy no shows and third party idiots who fell for a narrative pushed by entities working against the Democratic Party. They need to take responsibility and apologize for their part in putting Trump in the White House.

Hopefully those folks won't be so easily played this time around.



Hillary Clinton is a Hard-Core Liberal.

https://www.ontheissues.org/Hillary_Clinton.htm

https://www.ontheissues.org/VoteMatch/candidate_map.asp?a1=1&a2=1&a3=1&a4=2&a9=1&a16=5&a10=5&a5=5&a7=4&a8=5&a14=1&a15=1&a17=4&a19=4&a18=3&a6=1&a20=4&a11=1&a12=4&a13=1&i1=1&i2=1&i3=1&i4=1&p=75&e=5&t=21

[lapucelle]

94. Shame on any voter who stayed home because they were fooled by phony narratives.

History will hold them accountable. I hold them in contempt, as I did in 2000.

Hopefully the gullible and the lazy will not be played a third time.



Joe Biden is a Hard-Core Liberal.

http://www.issues2000.org/Joe_Biden.htm

https://www.ontheissues.org/VoteMatch/candidate_map.asp?a1=2&a2=2&a3=1&a4=4&a9=1&a16=4&a10=4&a5=5&a7=4&a8=5&a14=1&a15=1&a17=4&a19=5&a18=4&a6=1&a20=2&a11=1&a12=2&a13=1&i1=1&i2=1&i3=1&i4=1&p=80&e=10&t=21

[Demsrule86]

124. Energizing voters is overrated...you have to field the right canididate and those who didn't

get the person they wanted need to vote blue no matter who...put on their big boy and girl pants. No matter who runs as a Dem, they are always better than the Pug alternative...so get out their and vote period.

[LincolnRossiter]

38. The next time the "young vote" wins an election will be the first.

NT.

[wasupaloopa]

80. Young voters are usually one interest voters who don't show up

[onetexan]

104. Tacking on Beto, Harris or Butigieg will take care of that problrm

[beastie boy]

12. Couldn't disagree with you more.

We need a moderate incrementalist with a long and proven record of accomplishment, and not a progressive visionary with zero record of accomplishment!

[Doremus]

41. Care to share a moderate's (any moderate) 'long and proven record of accomplishment'?

Genuine question. Thanks.

[beastie boy]

59. Take Biden (who is the most moderate candidaterunning), and Obama.

Getting the country out of recession, saving America's financial system, reducing national deficit by half, reducing unemployment by half, saving the US auto industry, Obamacare... need I go on?

You DO think Obama and Biden are moderate incrementalists, don't you?

And this is just a shortened record of what a couple of moderate incrementalists had accomplished together.

[ginnyinWI]

13. I would like our progressive visionaries to

Stay in the Senate or House and give us many years of excellent work. The executive branch can oversee it, manage and prioritize. The presidency should be more of that, and less a one man government like it’s been turning into.

[griffi94]

14. That's my position as well

The primaries are the time to support the candidate closest to you on issues.
In the general I'll happily vote for our nominee but until then I'm supporting who I most
agree with on issues.

[BannonsLiver]

20. Well that's not Bernie

Though I suspect you have probably figured that out by now.

[Amishman]

23. Best chance at defeating Trump? That is Biden.

Poll after poll shows it.

DU is not a good representation of the electorate. Trump's extremism has alienated independents and moderates, Biden gathers those in which is why he polls so well head to head with the orange idiot

[OhZone]

29. Has a Democratic "progressive visionary" -

Ever won?

Maybe Woodrow Wilson?

Wasn't FDR considered moderate at first?

[emmaverybo]

49. He was. Outside agitation and events put the pressure on him. They (capitalists) didn't want to

lose labor to communism.

Unfortunately, FDR also brought us Japanese internment camps, an immigration policy that turned down hundreds of thousands Jews pre-holocaust, and was not only
anti-Semitic but a white supremacist as well.

You could sure say he was moderate.

[stonecutter357]

43. Biden is the only progressive visionary in the race ......

[emmaverybo]

50. He's the only one to have articulated a real vision for uniting Americans, to have defined the terms

of the upcoming election as “a struggle for the soul of America,” and to have reminded us what that America is and who we are in it.


Joe Biden reminded all of us of what a presidential president would sound like
by Jonathan Capeheart

Snip——————————from Capeheart

What gave Biden’s address more power was that it wasn’t just a harangue against Trump. It was a reminder of who we are as a nation, “the soul of America,” as he called it.

Snip—————————-from Biden.speech as quoted by Capeheart

What this president doesn’t understand is that unlike every other nation on earth, we're unable to define what constitutes "American" by religion, by ethnicity, or by tribe; you can't do it.

America is an idea. An idea stronger than any army, bigger than any ocean, more powerful than any dictator or tyrant. It gives hope to the most desperate people on earth….

The most powerful idea in the history of the world I think beats in the hearts of the people of this country. And it beats in all of us. No matter your race, your ethnicity. No matter your gender identity, your sexual orientation. No matter your faith. It beats in the heart of rich and poor alike. It unites America -- whether your ancestors were Native to these shores or they were brought here forcibly and enslaved, whether they were immigrants generations back, like my family from Ireland, or those coming today looking to build a better life for your family.

The American creed – that we are all created equal –was written long-ago. But the genius of every generation of Americans has opened it wider and wider and wider, to include those who have been excluded in a previous generation. That’s why it has never gathered dust in the history books.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/07/joe-biden-reminded-all-us-what-presidential-president-would-sound-like/

[onetexan]

108. Excellent post

[emmaverybo]

46. Who is WE? Bernie not my idea of a visionary anyway. More old school revolutionary ala white male

campus protestors circa 1968. Maybe start-ups need visionaries. Politics and governance a little more pragmatic.

Oh, and we are a leading superpower among superpowers, navigating perilous waters at this time in history. Does the visionary have any foreign policy interests, knowledge, experience or will he just be spreading revolution around?

[Demsrule86]

67. No we don't. We need to win three states in the Mid West...and left won't cut it this year.

[emmaverybo]

107. Democratic voters in the primary will decide who they need.

[Demsrule86]

15. I agree with you and Stacey would be a great pick...she is amazing.

[BannonsLiver]

21. I'd pick Tammy Duckworth

Much stronger credentials than Abrams.

[Demsrule86]

22. I love Tammy...and a baby in the VP house too!

[pinkstarburst]

82. I like her, too

[Autumn]

25. I don't think so.

[cwydro]

28. Bookmarked.

[Gothmog]

42. Here is why I like Joe

Link to tweet

[emmaverybo]

109. Joe didn't discover the evils of white supremacy yesterday. He's been long concerned on a global

basis. Way back, he confronted the Reagan administration about South Africa’s system of apartheid.

Out of the gate, he defined one of the key missions he is running on—to, as he said, send white supremacists and neo-Nazis back under their rocks. To do this, he calls for unity around our shared
democratic ideals and as Jonathan Capeheart wrote about his Iowa speech, “reminds us of who we are” without ignoring existing injustices.

These can not be addressed by big, bold economic policy aspirations alone. Joe calls us to our better angels. We have to have the heart, not just a plan for every pot. Biden leads with heart, always has and always will.

[LincolnRossiter]

45. Probably. To me it all depends upon his performance in the early contests. He doesn't need to win

Last edited Thu Sep 5, 2019, 02:46 PM - Edit history (1)

Iowa and NH, but he can’t afford to be blown out either. A top two finish in Iowa and a top three strong showing in NH would set him up nicely for SC and NV where demographics are much more favorable to him. If he wins both of those (and he does need to win SC) he takes a good narrative and a head of steam into Super Tuesday.

Of course if he wins Iowa I think it’s pretty much all over. Expectations won’t be too high in NH because the other two leading candidates have huge advantages there. So as long as he finishes behind only them he’s in the catbird seat.

[NYMinute]

51. K&R nt

[Farmer-Rick]

54. I don't trust predictions ever since the Russians got into our votes

Hillary was the enivitable winner before Traitor Trump won.

Don't forget the little man in Russia. He gets a vote too. And it's bigger than yours.

[Iliyah]

55. That pertains to anyone who wins the

Democratic Nominee. Also, whoever wins, the Republicans alongwith corporate media, hate radio, and general RWers will come out swinging in full force wherein majority of the bashing and attacks will be fake and false.

To ad more unfavorable attacks will be from the far left, especially when their preferred candidate(s) doesn't win.

[Farmer-Rick]

62. I think Russia has a bigger impact on our elections than

Those others. And they are going to have a huge impact.

Yes, of course anyone who wins the primary will have a problem. But last time around, Russia started meddling by spreading Putin's stolen wealth around to different primary candidates. Putin didn't wait for the general election to start meddling. He's doing it now.

But you know, the FBI can't t act to protect the country from foreign influence thanks to the Roberts Court, Traitor Trump administration, the broken voting system that the GOP set up and American capitalist kings who are busily stealing vast amounts of our national wealth.

Then also they have their fingers in the GOP, every media from radio to Twitter to facebook to TV. And they have traitors in campaigns feeding them info.

This election won't be what everyone thinks. This election will be fully Putin vs the American people. Right now all the power structure is aligned to give Putin the win. But maybe the American people will wake up and act.....maybe.

[myohmy2]

68. not so fast...

...we're 5 months away from even beginning the process...

...I think most Dems want to keep their options open, keep their powder dry, take the high road and see what happens...

...we have many excellent candidates to chose from this time around and anything can happen...

...a week can be an eternity in national politics...things will look a lot different a year from now...


https://berniesanders.com/issues/

...

[Gothmog]

71. We all have a responsibility to stand up and speak out when we see abuse of power

Link to tweet

[Andy823]

72. Another hit and run post nt

[elocs]

73. "Biden will be the nominee"

Then let's dispense with all of these pesky debates and primaries and caucuses and get on with it and get behind him 100%.

Well, maybe not.

[Autumn]

74. Okay. Do we cancel the primary and just appoint him and should we now start vetting Ms. Abrams?

[DrFunkenstein]

75. Wes Clark Was Frontrunner in Sept, Clinton Had a 18+ Lead in Late Dec 2007

The Dec. 14-16, 2007, poll shows that Clinton continues to have a large lead over her competitors, with 45% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saying they support her for the nomination.

Twenty-seven percent of Democrats support Obama and 15% support Edwards. Sen. Joe Biden (3%), Gov. Bill Richardson (2%), and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (2%) are well behind in what has pretty much been a three-person race the entire campaign.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/103351/clinton-maintains-large-lead-over-obama-nationally.aspx

[Firestorm49]

76. I'm not a Biden fan, but I also believe that he'll get the nomination.

I only hope that he chooses one of the female candidates as his running mate. We need a strong candidate, and I’m afraid that Joe is too old school. As much as I hate Trump, we need a pit bull in there to counter the guggernaugt that Republicans have created over the past years.

The DU post yesterday about the deceased Republican strategist showed how intense and planned the Republican Party has become. I’d be thrilled if the Democratic Party had such a strategy. Perhaps they do, and it’s kept private. One can only hope, but it seems that Republicans are more on top of their game than we are in terms of long term goals.

I’ll vote for Joe if he’s the nominee, but I think we can do better.

[wasupaloopa]

78. Nobody knows who the nominee will be. Anyone who tells you

they know is a fool.

[Fiendish Thingy]

79. Your inevitability mythology is duly noted

Don't count your chickens before the eggs have even been laid.

If Warren wins Iowa and NH, especially if Biden comes in 3rd or lower in those states, all bets are off. The momentum, fueled by the media's narrative, will shift rapidly, possibly damaging Biden's chances in SC and Nevada. Many single digit polling candidates will likely drop out before Super Tuesday, further condensing the votes.

A lot can and will happen between now and January, and a lot can and will happen between January and February.

PS- Holder would be a terrible choice for VP.

[pinkstarburst]

81. Warren and Harris

are more experienced and qualified VP picks.

If Abrams doesn't want to run for Senate, that's her choice. But IMHO she's doesn't have the experience to be VP to a 76 year old president.

And I think passing over Warren (if she doesn't get the nomination outright) when she's got so much momentum with the progressive side of the party could be a bad, bad move that could come back to bite Biden in the general as far as turnout goes.

[evertonfc]

93. turnout

If progressives don't turn out for this one, I don't know what to say. The most conservative Democrat is far, far better than Trump. If turnout dosent break records in 2020- the people are not as appalled as they pretend to be.

[emmaverybo]

111. Joe Biden has a range of great folks to pick from. There are several extremely accomplished WOC

in the senate. Two white septuagenarians is not a great idea. And Warren is far into her progressive ideology around which multiple pet plans orbit, without her accounting for how to pay for them. On the other hand, as a senator she could work on building a consensus for the implementation of some key pieces.

I think her main interest is in domestic economics. A VP who might be president should
be well rounded.

During this time of great peril, with the existential threat of a first nuclear exchange looming closer than ever before, a Susan Rice profile would make for a formidable, globally engaged and experienced administration.

[Thekaspervote]

83. EW & BS being next door to NH.... no surprise that they would come in 1st and 2nd

[Gothmog]

86. Joe Biden still bests fellow Democrats on electability, polls show

Link to tweet

[Joe941]

89. That's your opinion. I have another...

I believe people want change not another slick politician.

[Peacetrain]

92. I think he will be the one

[Gothmog]

95. Joe Biden's appeal actually isn't a mystery

Link to tweet

Biden shows reverence for the most popular Democrat around, former president Barack Obama; others find fault in everything from the Affordable Care Act to immigration policy. Biden does not bombard voters with a torrent of multi-part plans; he gives them a few basic positions and defends them. Biden does not campaign from the neck up; he campaigns with his heart on his sleeve. Biden is deeply optimistic; his opponents think Americans are the problem, not Trump. (I don’t suggest that his opponents are wrong, merely that their stance apparently isn’t as popular as they thought.) Biden wants normalcy plus reform; his opponents want a peaceful revolution. Biden knows people want to be heard and seen; his opponents (with the exception of Sen. Kamala D. Harris) don’t fully grasp this. They want to “help," to pepper people with ideas and a to-do list, while Biden takes the time to listen to them. (Think of the well-meaning friend who has a thousand suggestions when you are grieving and you’d rather they just shut up and commiserate.)

This is the grouchy-white-guy-in-the-diner problem all over again. Reporters are blinded by their own age, background, education and geography. Instead of going to West Virginia diners to find the Trump voter, reporters should go talk to the residents of The Villages in Florida, the African American churchgoing ladies and the buttoned-down professionals in the affluent suburbs (the Romney-Clinton voters). These people have endured a noisy, offensive and intrusive presence in the White House. They don’t necessarily want a different noisy, intrusive presence — even one they agree with on substance.

Part of the “mystery” of Biden’s appeal would be solved if the moderators flipped their questions, as one smart Democrat not in the Biden camp put it. Instead of asking Biden or another moderate, “Why aren’t you going with the big, bold idea of Medicare-for-all?,” the moderators might consider asking Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) or Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), “Why blow up Obamacare, and why don’t you trust people to choose Medicare if given the option?” Instead of assuming that extreme proposals are the standard, requiring the moderates to explain why they are such wet blankets, the moderators should press the super-progressives on questions such as: What makes you think that voters want to go through another health-care makeover? Why should poorer people pay for richer people’s health care or subsidize their college debt?

Better yet, ask the candidates to relate the personal story from a voter who moved them the most, or the last voter whose phone number they took so that the candidate could call later, or the most insightful thing they have heard from a voter. It might reveal who is talking at voters and who is listening to them.

[emmaverybo]

112. A lot to unpack here that makes sense. Why am I feeling lectured at and finding that uncomfortable,

exhausting with Joe’s rivals, dizzied by plans, while I am feeling a heart connection to Joe, as though he has listened to some version of me, has listened to America’s “heartbeat” as he called it and is reflecting it back? Yes, I feel upbeat about our future when I listen to Joe, but overwhelmed with “tasks” I have no idea how they will be accomplished when I listen to Bernie or Liz telling me what we MUST do and I want to get a question in edgewise via the moderator as to where we find the money, and the political capital, and the TIME.

I want to say did you forget Social Security is endangered before you added to its cost, rich and poor alike getting another 200 a month. Did you know we have a historically high deficit
that keeps growing? But they are so bent on pushing their fabulous plans I get the sense they don’t pay attention to how or why—why discharge 95 percent of student debt and not do something about mass foreclosures.

What about the threat to Medicare as is and Medicaid and the dismantling of Obamacare? What will
people do until your new bold big system is implemented. What if it’s not?

They just go on lofted by their own enthusiasm, as though they are so powerful they can make anything happen, as though they will be in a bubble in the White House too, no moderate democrats or oppositional Republicans to have to work with.

They wave their arms and hands around too much. Makes them look very busy. Tiring.

[Gothmog]

96. The hardest job for the next president may be fixing Trump's mess

This is one of the reasons why I think that Joe Biden is the best candidate. Who ever is the nominee will have to be prepared to fix all of the damage that trump has done to our government. https://beta.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-hardest-job-for-the-next-president-may-be-fixing-trumps-mess/2019/09/16/e16216fe-d8bf-11e9-ac63-3016711543fe_story.html

Perhaps the most straightforward and least complicated undertaking, since it would be entirely within the next president’s purview, is rebuilding the executive branch from the corrupted ruin Trump will leave behind.

One of the most underreported stories about the Trump administration is its basic incompetence. Perhaps Trump’s biggest con of all was convincing his supporters that he was some sort of business wizard with a genius for management. In truth, the Trump Organization was a mom-and-pop family business that he repeatedly micromanaged to the brink of collapse. He is doing exactly the same with the government of the United States.

The White House itself is less like “The West Wing” than “Game of Thrones.” Courtiers vie for the favor of the Mad King, unable or unwilling to perform normal duties for fear of risking Trump’s ire. Usually, the White House is a place where information from outside sources is synthesized and digested so the president can make the best possible decisions. Under Trump, the flow is reversed — his whims, however ill-informed or contradictory or just plain loopy, are tweeted out and must be made into policy.

Agencies vital to our national security — including the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency — lumber along, month after month, without permanent leadership. “It’s easier to make moves when they’re acting,” Trump has said, but really the situation reflects his own insecurity. By keeping his underlings weak and beholden only to him, he limits their power — and thus hamstrings the departments they nominally lead.

Joe Biden is the best candidate to repair the damage done by trump. I think that the repair of this damage will keep the next Democratic President very busy.

[jcgoldie]

97. There are NINE more Democratic debates

That is very much not in Joe's favor.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

110. You can say that again!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[W_HAMILTON]

98. I'm not a big fan of him picking Abrams.

I appreciate Abrams for what she has done and what she has the capability of doing, but I just don't see her as being very useful on the ticket. I would prefer that Biden just nominate a fellow candidate for the nomination just to shore up their supporters. I would prefer Warren (for her supporters, but unlikely) or Harris (for her attack dog ability and the fact that she is a woman of color to add diversity to the ticket). I just think Abrams would be another Kaine-type VP pick that ultimately would not really help the ticket in any demonstrable way.

[Gothmog]

100. Biden's Electability Advantage Will Be Hard to Shake Among Risk-Averse Democrats

Link to tweet

The most obvious is Biden’s consistent strength in head-to-head polls against Trump. You can remind people all day long that these are unreliable indicators of how a general-election campaign will actually play out, but they won’t be able to ignore them. And Biden’s advantage here is significant. There is not a single poll in the RealClearPolitics database of 2020 trial heats between Biden and Trump in which Biden does not lead. His current lead in RCP’s polling averages is an enormous 11.5 percent (Sanders’s is 7.0 percent, and Warren’s is 5.2 percent, but both have trailed Trump in some surveys).

A second factor making Biden Mr. Electable is the widespread belief among pundits and voters alike that, all things being equal, proximity to the political “center” is a general-election asset. The more we approach a three-candidate nominating contest in which Biden’s only real challenge comes from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, the more Biden’s relative “moderation” will become evident. That may hurt him with some primary voters, but it could at the same time enhance his perceived electability.

A third factor some analysts focus on is the practical ability to win voters the party lost in 2016 — either to Trump or to third parties or to the living-room couch. There’s at best limited evidence that Biden is more popular than other Democrats in the much-chewed-over white working-class demographic (especially Obama-Trump voters). But he certainly talks about his focus on these voters a lot, which enhances the perception they are his people. And he certainly has conspicuous strength among African-American voters, whose fall-off in turnout was a big problem for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden does not look like a good bet to energize younger voters, but Trump might well do that for him...…

“Risk-averse” is probably the most important term to remember in assessing Democratic voters heading toward 2020. They still don’t entirely understand how Hillary Clinton managed to lose to Donald Trump in 2016, but they aren’t inclined to take anything for granted this time around. And that will make it difficult for candidates other than Biden to convince Democrats their other qualities are worth taking a bit of a risk on. Sure, Biden could in theory blow himself up with some high-profile gaffe that undermines the very premise of his candidacy. But that’s not within anyone else’s control.

[Dyedinthewoolliberal]

101. We are almost a year from when that will happen.

I bet an internet dollar he wont be..........

[YOHABLO]

116. We have a long way to go in this Primary so let's not get ahead of ourselves.