I am posting two Electoral College maps;one we win,the other we don't. (poll)

[Demsrule86]

The difference is three states...blue wall states that we lost in 16...three states we either win or we lose the presidency in 20 and beyond...our situation is dire as you will see if you look at the maps objectively. the three blue wall states states in general'purple states at best... We need to run a moderate nominee in 20. Biden is the best candidate to retake those states and maybe even more rust belt and possibly Southern states (also becoming purple). He is popular in Ohio. So do we want our perfect progressive candidate or do we want to win...not sure we can do both. By the way, Biden is progressive but can also attract moderates. I have posted the link so you can make your own EC maps...show me I am wrong if you can...show me how we win without the blue wall states. Please take the included poll.


The map below shows how dire our situation is with the electoral college...and we need a candidate who can win the blue wall states...the first map shows us losing as we keep what Hillary took and fail to win back the blue wall...and keep in mind Minnesota was close...and could go the other way. If we don't rebuild the blue wall ...take MI, WI and PA, we will lose in 20 and beyond. For those yesterday who sneered at folks in Lordstown Ohio, maybe you should reconsider you harsh remarks.





The second map show what happens when we take three additional states...MI, PA and WI. We win! It is our only realistic path to the presidency...we have not take Georgia or Texas in decades...and have we ever won Arizona? What has changed so that now we win? We rebuilt the blue wall and Biden is the best candidate to do this.



https://www.270towin.com/maps/mP47v

49 votes, 2 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Who of the top four candidates (Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris) can win back the blue wall?
	1 (2%)
	Biden
	15 (31%)
	Sanders
	8 (16%)
	Warren
	9 (18%)
	Harris
	0 (0%)
	No one can win back the blue wall states.
	0 (0%)
	Any of the above can win back the blue wall states.
	16 (33%)
	2 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[DownriverDem]

1. Michigan

Michigan is not going to vote for trump. The Midterms moved us back into the blue column.

[Demsrule86]

4. Michigan has some strong Trump supporters...if we run a really

left candidate and our folks stay home... which they could do...we could lose Michigan...and anyway why not nominate a candidate who can definitely win?

[karynnj]

20. HRC had a record that was only slightly to the left of Biden and she was more hawkish

The best way to compare them is a comparison of the years they overlapped in the Senate -- rather than life time averages.

You need some backup to actually defend the assertion that someone more to the left would lose against Trump. While it may be true, just saying that - as you have - does not make a case for it.

There were many postulated reasons why HRC lost - ranging from her own unpopularity even if it was caused by RW/Russian attacks to her being a woman to her being seen as less likely than Trump to help the white Reagan/Trump Democrats who had otherwise voted for Democrats. Add that getting the "third" term is usually tougher.

With each candidate, you could argue that THEY, unlike HRC, would have won. (Note this ignores that after 3 years of Trump, I would bet HRC would win Michigan.) Warren has very little of the baggage that HRC had, she even more than Biden, had a lower middle class background in Oklahoma.

Judging from some comments on Michigan, the issue was NOT traditional right and left, but free trade deals or protectionism. This would explain Sanders' appeal. That must be showing up in internal polls as I have yet to hear 2020 candidates speak of TPP with tweaks to make it better.

Note that all this is true of PA and WI.

[Demsrule86]

43. You are comparing apples too oranges...this was not a right left thing.

Hillary was very unpopular...unfairly blamed for NAFTA and destroyed by both the left and the right...We need a moderate to win back the blue wall.

[karynnj]

90. Obama and Kerry both won those three states

Kerry was considerably to Biden's left.

[SidDithers]

26. Michigan is not going to vote for Trump...

Neither is Wisconsin.



Sid

[blm]

28. He's permanently lost at LEAST 5% of his 2016 voters in Michigan.

I think the scare tactics some are employing here against great candidates are wrongheaded, lazy, and stupid.

[Demsrule86]

45. The polls did not favor him in 2016 either...keep that in mind...all it

takes is voters to stay home again because they don't like either candidate... which could happen if we run too far left.

[onetexan]

92. +1 -K&R

[ZZenith]

130. It could also happen if we run Biden.

[Demsrule86]

131. Anything could happen...but odds are in our favor that Biden can win

the blue wall states back and we win...maybe we get more maybe we don't but Trump is gone...Biden has good ties to the mid west and has established credibility in the region.

[TexasTowelie]

2. We don't have to take back the blue wall states

if we take Texas. The Electoral College will be 271 D (maybe 272 if the Nebraska seat goes for a D) and 266 R. That is why Beto deserves to be listen to and fairly evaluated.

[brooklynite]

3. Beto didn't win Texas ub 2018...

We may win it in the future, but I see no hard evidence that we'll win it now.

[TexasTowelie]

7. And Biden hasn't won the blue wall states ever.

So if we are going to compare, would it be better to take a risk flipping one state that will have a favorite son candidate or trying to flip three blue wall states where our candidate doesn't have substantial connections in two of them and hasn't lived in the third one for decades? To be honest, I don't see any hard evidence that Biden can flip all three.

[brooklynite]

14. Democrats won MI, WI and PA in 2018. Democrats didn't win TX in 2018.

Biden won them as VP in 2008 and 2012.

[TexasTowelie]

23. So if Democrats won MI, WI, and PA in 2018 without Biden on the ticket,

then certainly we should be capable of winning them again in 2020, regardless of who our candidate is.

Democrats didn't win Texas in 2018 because the national party has viewed Texas as a cash register and hasn't made many expenditures in the state for nearly two decades. Texans are loyal to our own and Trump is a Yankee that is despised in this state which means that Beto will be a favorite and he has polled as well as and even surpassed Biden in some polls.

Frankly, I'm ready for younger politicians to take charge. I'm surprised that people want to lock it down to three candidates over 70 years of age when we have plenty of fresh faces with good ideas out there.

Also, I doubt that people were voting for the VP position in 2008 or 2012 in any of the fifty states so claiming that it gives Biden an advantage is a dubious argument.

Too much conventional wisdom is stating that Biden is favored to win the blue wall states, but conventional wisdom doesn't always work out very well for the Democratic Party. As much as I like Biden and respect his experience, there is also plenty of baggage that comes with that experience and the GOP will be ready to pounce on it.

[Demsrule86]

78. Those were not statewide races...we won in Texas too but not statewide with Beto.

[Demsrule86]

148. You need to start with house seats and the legislature...and a Senate seat...before we won Virginia,

we had one governorships and senate seats...we cant' count on Texas...but we can utilize a 50 state strategy that makes Texas and Georgia go blue . I think Georgia turns blue before Texas.

[karynnj]

24. Are you seriously saying winning Texas is easier than winning PA, MI and WI???

With the exception of very narrow (and critically important) losses in 2016, Democrats have won MI, WI, and PA in all recent years. In fact, for MI and WI, part of the problem might have been the DNC and HRC campaign were somewhat caught unaware as they did not see them at risk.

One thing Biden might be able to use in MI is his role in the Obama administration saving a few major car companies. Trump SAID he would return jobs - he didn't. Obama/Biden actually did save thousands of jobs.

[TexasTowelie]

40. You are relying heavily on Joe riding Obama's coattails.

That in itself could cost the election.

[Demsrule86]

79. Joe helped Obama win the Mid west in 08 and 12.

He has won the mid west...Beto didn't win Texas...and Texas won't be blue this year. We need the rust belt.

[Rstrstx]

103. Mmm, a number of polls have shown one candidate ahead of Trump in Texas

And it's Biden, not O'Rourke.

I'm surprised Arizona isn't mentioned more; they did vote for a Democratic senator in 2018 and there's another Senate seat there up for grabs in 2020. Pouring money into that state might be well worth it.

[Demsrule86]

47. Yes he has. He won them for Obama...saw him to do it twice.

Especially in 12 Biden saved the Obama presidency in the mid west ...particularly Ohio.

[TexasTowelie]

97. No, people don't usually vote for the second spot on the presidential ticket.

They vote for the person at the top.

[Demsrule86]

127. Biden was sent to Ohio for exactly that...and Biden is well liked in Ohio...

I worked the events...Biden is a great speaker and did a fantastic job.

[TexasTowelie]

133. Your OP stated "show me how we win without the blue wall states."

I provided a valid answer, even if you did not like it which to some extent explains you're floundering to contradict my response with concerns about Cruz, Joe winning the blue wall states as VP, and the connection to bailout

You've jumped from MI, WI, and PA to now include OH. If you were working a political event, then it is almost a certainty that the people attending the event would also like Joe. That doesn't mean that Biden is guaranteed to carry the state or the other blue wall states any more than Beto is guaranteed to carry Texas if he is nominee. It also does not eliminate the possibility that Beto could beat Trump in the blue wall states.

Each election stands on its own. I showed you a way that the Democrats can win without the blue wall states, you are the one who is refusing to accept that answer. Have a nice day.

[Demsrule86]

134. I was talking about the mid west...Ohio is not a must win state...we need

WI, PA and MI...Biden can win there...as I recall you suggested we would take Texas...I consider that unlikely and even if we did take Texas...we would have to win all the states that have divided EC...bare minimum of 270. No one has shown me a path yet where we can win...states that we have not won in decades are all the sudden going to turn blue...just in time for 20-I don't believe it. The blue wall is the best chance most likely the only chance. And we need a perceived moderate.

[TexasTowelie]

139. I showed you the way.

If you aren't willing to accept it or feel it is necessary to inject other caveats as you did, then that is your prerogative.

It seems just as difficult to flip the three mid-western states (particularly Wisconsin) as to flip Texas. And yes, Beto can win Texas just like Joe can win the three states you are counting on.

BTW, your maps are off. You only accounted for 537 Electoral College votes when there are 538.

[bluewater]

91. Excellent point!

[Demsrule86]

5. And when pigs fly...we couldn't beat the most hated GOP in the Senate...we are

not going to take Texas. Right now, we need the blue Wall or Donald Trump wins...maybe in the coming years that could change but not in 20.

[CTyankee]

109. i thought we had a shot with TX due to the Hispanic vote. It is not to be taken for granted, however

but it seems to me that we could win TX if we Dems give them the attention they need and deserve. Growing up I watched TX turn from Dem to Repub. and stay that way (with the exception of LBJ's ascendancy to the Presidency). Beto might be a good addition to our ticket in the VP slot.

[Demsrule86]

110. I see where you are coming from...but we can't afford to put all our eggs in

the Texas basket...the blue wall states are more likely a win.we should try everywhere though that being said...fifty state strategy.

[CTyankee]

113. i wish I had a crystal ball on this...

[Demsrule86]

123. Me too...I went to High School in Ridgefield by the way...also lived in Brookfield...

and went to UCONN and WestConn...where are you in CT?

[CTyankee]

125. in New Haven. I love it here. I'm in a great community, a neighborhood near the Yale Bowl.

First game in a few weeks. We're in a tailgate group...good eats and good friends...it's a lot of fun...

[Demsrule86]

132. I used to sneak into the Yale Library...it was better than ours...

Lucky you...I love Connecticut.

[Demsrule86]

6. Also you post shows why we need the blue wall...even with Texas we barely win.

What if we lose a vote in Maine or other divided EC vote states? We could end up with a tie which the GOP will win in the house because of the gerrymander.

[TexasTowelie]

9. No, what it means is that we would only need one out of the three blue wall states

to provide a more comfortable margin so that your hypothetical construct does not tip the race to the GOP.

It's still easier to win Texas and one other state than it is to win three states, particularly since two of them have no connection to Biden whatsoever. It isn't as though Biden has ever won any election in any of those three states in his lifetime.

[karynnj]

27. Which states does Biden not have a link to

Biden was a key player on the various stimulus projects in 2009 and on the Obama/Biden effort to save the auto industry. That certainly is a connection to MI. He was raised in PA. That's two - off the top of my head. Biden was only on the ticket in those states as part of Obama/Biden. Beto has won NO state level contest in any state. Your argument is pretty weak.

[TexasTowelie]

38. Voters have short memories and the auto bailout was over ten years ago.

I don't think that Joe gains much in Michigan based upon that sole piece of conventional wisdom anymore than any other Democrat. The voters there will think that Democrats have helped them out, while Trump and his cronies have hurt their economy.

You weren't able to identify any connection between Biden and Wisconsin so I don't see why there is any difference between Biden and O'Rourke. Until 2018, Democrats lost nearly every state race from 2010 onwards.

Biden will be favored in Pennsylvania, but without the other two states it won't matter.

To me, Biden sweeping the three blue wall states is as much of a weak argument for his nomination as your opinion of my outlook.

The only statewide races that Biden has won have been in Delaware which isn't saying that much due to its size, plus he hasn't won any presidential primaries in any state and this is his third time at bat.

[Demsrule86]

80. The auto bailout saved thousands of jobs and probably the economy...people haven't

forgotten here...only help ever sent our way is what most people think.

[PADemD]

118. Joe Biden leads race for campaign donors in Delaware, but not Philadelphia

Joe Biden started his campaign with a video promoting on his Pennsylvania roots, but so far the Keystone State prefers Bernie Sanders.

At least, that's one takeaway from a detailed analysis published Friday by the New York Times, examining where individual donors are contributing to the leading Democratic candidates as their respective 2020 presidential campaigns begin to pick up steam.

Sanders is running away with the individual donor race, racking up nearly 750,000 individual donors, roughly 325,000 more than any other Democratic candidate in the race, according to data reported by the individual campaigns and from online fund-raising platform ActBlue.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.phillyvoice.com/joe-biden-campaign-donors-delaware-pennsylvania-philadelphia-democrats-2020-bernie-sanders/amp/

[Demsrule86]

145. Joe will take PA and money isn't votes...he has the best chance by far.

[PADemD]

153. Actually, individual donations are votes.

Like many others, I am donating directly to the candidate for whom I will vote. If my candidate loses, my wallet closes. I will not donate to a candidate with whom I disagree on their policy ideas.

[Demsrule86]

154. Not even close to votes...Polls show Biden takes PA...not many out there but I am confident Biden

will take PA...no matter how much money some candidates rake in.

[Demsrule86]

164. Actually that was based on a bait and switch article...they used numbers before Biden got in for

Sanders...Biden made more per day than Sanders...posted today...if you care to read it.

[Demsrule86]

48. That is not true...we could end up with a tie if one of them wasn't WI.

Wisconsin is the toughest of the three states too.

[Demsrule86]

147. Sure and we could get Georgia, Arizona or Carolina... but the odds are not good...we

can win in the blue wall states with the right candidate...Biden. Now it makes no sense to go for the long shot...Beto couldn't beat the most hated Senator...Texas will not go blue in 20 ... We can't count on it...we need to win period...this is our best shot.

[TwilightZone]

12. TX in 2020 is unlikely, Beto or otherwise.

Until we fix the turnout problem on the left in TX, it will continue to be an issue.

We're working on it and it's trending the right direction, but 2020 is more than likely too early on the trend line to go to any Democratic candidate, including Beto and Castro, especially if Trump's approval remains higher than the national average here. Trump's net approval in TX is currently +8. We need it in negative territory, probably -5 (which is where it was at midterms) or higher, to have a chance to make up the gap.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/donald-trump-job-approval-trend

[NYMinute]

22. Just making the GOP have to fight for TX is HUGE

It will drain their resources and drive them nuts.

Also, TX is not Alabama or Mississippi -- Trump is not as popular in Texas as in other Southern GOP dittohead KKK states. TX is pluckable this time if Beto is on the ticket. Many TX Republicans will stay home rather than vote for the Orange Clown.

[Demsrule86]

49. No it is not...without the blue wall, it would be useless...we can't

win without the blue wall states this year.

[Lithos]

88. Texas will not flip until Dems re-establish some control at the State Level

The pubs have screwed over with gerrymandering and voter suppression. I think we're doing much better on that front, but the electoral votes are not likely until we get control of either the House/Senate, Lt-Governorship, or Attorney-General.

L-

[Demsrule86]

163. I agree with this point too...

[myohmy2]

8. trump...

...will attack whoever our candidate is as a 'Communist'...so let's get that off the table...

...I feel Bernie does the best job of answering and solving our nation's problems in the most egalitarian way...Bernie has the fire in the belly needed for the tough fight ahead to the White House...he passionately believes in what he's saying and what he wants to do and he wants you to passionately believe it too...

...map or no map, no one can predict how people will vote or what the mood of the country will be a year and a half out...they spend billions trying to figure it out but it's all guess work at this point...

...but when you look to our future with hope, passion and the enlightened policies we need, no one is even close to Bernie with solutions that address what I feel America wants, demands and will ultimately support...and Bernie is more than capable of standing up to all republicans as he makes the case...

...read for yourself,

https://berniesanders.com/issues/

...

[Demsrule86]

50. Policies are nothing if we can't win. I do not believe Sanders can win as

easily as Joe...he has a better shot than the others so he is my second choice...but still a hail mary...we need a moderate or a perceived moderate. MFA alone will kill us in the blue wall states.

[thesquanderer]

10. Any of them CAN win those states, though some have better chances than others.

An option for "some" of them can win might have been a good idea also (instead of only one or them or any of them).

Funny that someone voted for the question.

[Demsrule86]

51. Well I can't change it now...but you are right...so put it in

the replies... I do not believe 'any' of them can win...only Biden and ... and maybe it is a long shot but Sanders. He has a relationship with voters in Wisconsin particularly from 16.

[thesquanderer]

59. Polls show others beating Biden in these states as well.

As listed in the most recent polls at realclearpolitics (though they are about 3 months old_

Pennsylvania:

Biden over Trump, 53-42
Sanders over Trump, 50-43
Warren over Trump, 47-44
Harris vs. Trump, tied

Michigan:

Biden over Trump, 53-41
Sanders over Trump, 53-41
Warren over Trump, 47-43
Harris vs. Trump, 47-44

[Demsrule86]

62. Sander is the only one over 50 % besides Biden...but there are few state polls these

days... I think Sanders is a long shot and the other's have little to no chance.

[qazplm135]

77. which you base on nothing

repeatedly when asked why, you have nothing for this completely unsupported opinion.
No polling. No data. Nothing.

[thesquanderer]

96. One does not have to get over 50% to win.

But it helps.

[Demsrule86]

100. True that.

[Demsrule86]

165. We need to win big to circumvent the usual cheating by the Gop and not all of them can win...I stil

think Biden will be the nominee or Trump will win.

[amb123]

11. Bill Clinton carried Arizona in 1996

So it's most definitely possible.

[lunasun]

31. AZ more likely to go blue than getting all 3 iffy Midwest states imo

[Demsrule86]

63. No it is not...24 years since it went blue and before that didn't go blue either...

And you would still need a moderate...and Arizona would not be enough on its own.

[Demsrule86]

149. Unlikely...we will be lucky to take the Senate seat...hope we do. But even if what you say is true..

a moderate candidate would win Arizona like Biden...not a Warren or a Sanders.

[Demsrule86]

52. A different world back then..he also carried Arkansas and Tennessee. I see

no evidence that we can get a state we haven't won in what will be 24 years at the time of the election ...bad odds that...wouldn't want to stake the election on such a long shot...the blue wall states are our only good choices THIS year...and I would remind you in order to get Arizona...you need a moderate there too.

[LongtimeAZDem]

87. Biden MIGHT be able to take Arizona; none of the others would stand a chance

[Demsrule86]

135. That is true...having him as nominee would help with the Senate seat also.

[yardwork]

13. I disagree that only a moderate can win MI, WI, and PA.

We lost those states in 2016 partly because progressive voters stayed home or voted third party.

There are cities in those states with large nonwhite populations. We must motivate those voters to vote. They will not vote if they feel ignored or overlooked.

There are lots of college towns in those states. The progressive voters who live there MUST vote for the Democratic candidate and not stay home and sulk like they did in 2016.

[brooklynite]

15. Hillary Clinton boosted turnout in the Democratic cities...

...the problems was she did far worse than Obama in the rural counties.

[yardwork]

16. Is that true? I hadn't heard that we did better in the cities than in 2012.

[brooklynite]

70. Yes, according to the Ohio Democratic Party Chair

[yardwork]

106. I'm asking about Pennsylvania.

[Demsrule86]

64. There is truth to that...and Biden will do better in rural counties too.

[PADemD]

18. Northampton County, PA, Election Results by Precinct

https://www.northamptoncounty.org/CTYADMN/ELECTNS/Election%20Results/Archives/Nov%208,%202016%20Results%20by%20Precinct.pdf

I don’t know if any Democrats stayed home to sulk, but the “Deplorables for Trump” in almost every rural precinct, whose yard signs were visible everywhere, were VERY motivated to turn out. Note that, even if the Jill Stein voters had voted for Hillary, Trump still it would have won Northampton County:

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/CountyResults?countyName=NORTHAMPTON&ElectionID=54&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

[yardwork]

21. Ok, but this is just one county. Rural voters usually vote R.

My point is about voters in cities and college towns, percent of vote for the Democrat in 2016 vs. 2012.

[PADemD]

29. College Towns in Northampton County, PA

Bethlehem
Lehigh University

Bethlehem Population (2010)
• City 74,982
• Urban 576,408
• Metro 740,395

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bethlehem,_Pennsylvania

Easton
Lafayette College

Easton Population (2010)
• Total 26,800

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easton,_Pennsylvania

The small towns and townships, where I live in rural Northampton County have, by my estimation, a population of approximately 44,000, which is larger than the city of Easton. These small towns and townships gave Trump his victory.

[yardwork]

30. What was the turnout and percent of Democratic vote in 2012 vs 2016?

[PADemD]

119. See reply 116.

[PADemD]

44. Northampton County

This is one of three counties in PA which voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

[yardwork]

54. That supports my point, then.

[Demsrule86]

65. Clearly we need to get vote from different areas not just for the presidency but for the

Senate.

[NYMinute]

25. Why do only BS supporters claim "no one stayed home" and "no one voted for Stein?"

And they debate that with a fury pretending complete blindness towards what Sirota/Turner/Grey/Sarandon/Cornel West did.

[Freddie]

32. Saw some Stein signs here

In Philly burbs. Morons.
Pretty sure Biden can win PA. He’s a Scranton native. Normally the cities outvote the Alabama part of the state, but sadly there was a lack of enthusiasm for HRC among minorities. 2020? Broken glass election - we’ll crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump.
Would love to see a Biden/Warren ticket.

[Demsrule86]

66. I like all our candidates...just want to win.

[PADemD]

34. Total 2016 votes for Northampton County

Clinton 66,272
Trump 71,736
Stein 1,371

66,272 + 1,371 = 67,643 still a loss for Hillary

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/CountyResults?countyName=NORTHAMPTON&ElectionID=54&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

[NYMinute]

36. So obviously many stayed at home believing the narrative of DNC rigging. nt

[Tiggeroshii]

46. Stein took 49,941 votes in PA.

And would have put Clinton over the edge in the state if they had voted for her. That being said it is arguable that most Stein voters would have voted if not to vote for Stein at all. Everybody assumes they would have voted for Clinton. But like the low minority turnout indicates, they probably just wouldn't have voted, still giving Clinton the loss. Now if pa had ranked choice ballots, that would be different.

[yardwork]

56. I'm asking for comparison with 2012.

[Demsrule86]

68. Biden saved Obama in 12...I saw it in Ohio...the first polls were a disaster for us.

[yardwork]

107. Interesting!

[Demsrule86]

111. I really was worried. Biden and Bill Clinton came repeatedly...in fact

when Sandy hit Pres. Obama couldn't come to Youngstown and Biden and Clinton came...very effective.

[PADemD]

116. The Dems didn't stay home in Northampton County

Republican Turnout
61,446 2012 Romney/Ryan
71,736 2016 Trump/Pence
+10,290 Difference

Democratic Turnout
67,606 2012 Obama/Biden
66,272 2016 Clinton/Kaine
-1,334 Difference

Green Party Turnout
495 2012 Stein/Honkala
1,371 2016 Stein/Baraka
+876 Difference

There were Republicans, who never voted before, that turned out to vote.

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/CountyBreakDownResults?officeId=1&districtId=1&ElectionID=27&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/CountyBreakDownResults?officeId=1&districtId=1&ElectionID=27&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

[yardwork]

122. This is very interesting.

[Demsrule86]

53. That is not really true...I live in the Mid West...and we lost because Trump

promised to fix manufacturing and we had a decrease in Black vote that some ascribe to the fact a woman was running or that Clinton (most qualified woman ever) had been destroyed by attacks on the right and the left...nohting to to with right/left...maybe some Sander's supporters turned to Stein...but can't compare 16 to 20. And Biden is not Clinton either...we need a moderate to win moderate states...candidates including Obama always moved to the center...this current crop other than Biden can't do that easily with their current positions.

[NYMinute]

37. Due to the disastrous efeects of Trump' tariffs

People are now more understanding of the trade agreements.

TPP would have reined in China far better than any other plan. BS's demagoguery about trade agreements made people think of them negatively. BS's trade plan is very similar to Trump's if not worse.

And then, after that happens, and the scenario unfolded precisely as progressives predicted it would and tried to warn everybody about, you can all blame the "dumb" voters again, or a 3rd party polling at 1%, or an actress from the 1990's.

So you're saying the "progressives" you cited are of the "elect me or I'll shoot myself in the foot" variety where they would rather have 0% of their agenda if they can't get 100%? Really?

[Demsrule86]

55. No they are not...not true at all...we all know that tariffs aren't bad when

properly used...and if you run on trade agreements...you lose the mid west.

[blm]

19. Trump has permanently lost at least 2% of ALL voters and he isn't adding any.

And no one understands and logically explains the economic realities of the middle and working class better than Elizabeth Warren. That is what will win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pa. and probably Iowa, NC, and Arizona.

[Demsrule86]

57. The jobs aren't coming back speech you have in mind will send them to the GOP

permanently...jobs have to return period.

[blm]

67. WTF you talking about? You just made up a reply based on RW attack

lie they used against Obama. Apparently you are unfamiliar with the interactions Warren has been having in rural and working class areas of the country. Stop pretending like you know everything. You don’t. Your replies here prove it and are only insulting to members here who actually pay attention.

[Demsrule86]

69. That is not an attack...I am familiar...and I have seen no real solutions...on a

thread yesterday about this. I am telling you Warren will not win blue wall states...and if we tell these voters that trade agreements are good and manufacturing is gone...we are toast. We certainly can combine green energy with jobs...and that is a winning message.

[blm]

71. You haven't a clue how she's running. Your scare tactic here is made up and absurd.

And you STILL used a RW attack lie often used against Obama to form your reply and tried to say I had it in mind. Utter horsepoo.

[Demsrule86]

72. It is not a scare tactic...and she running on so many policy initiatives I have lost count...

but I have heard nothing that will sway the blue wall states...and AA voters are particularly important there. She has so far not been able to win over such voters...instead of getting mad a me...tell me how she does it...assuming she can do better with AA voter.s.

[blm]

73. Let us know why you used aRW lie against Obama

To make up your attack against Warren. And, it’s apparent you haven’t heard anything to sway you because you aren’t paying attention as closely as you want the rest of us to believe.

You lost credibility on that when you tried to submit that Warren’s platform on working class issues was the RW’s old manufactured attack on a speech Obama made.

Enough with that BS.

[Demsrule86]

74. I love Obama worked for his campaign...never said that...taking that out of

context. I have heard for years about jobs not coming back and retraining...both are hated here in Ohio and elsewhere in the Mid West...will view what I wrote and see why you think I would ever attack Pres. Obama.

[Demsrule86]

76. What RW lie do you refer to...time to post it or stop the attack on me...which is

what this is...so what lie are you referring to? I have made no statement against Pres. Obama whom I like and admire greatly.

[blm]

84. Oh please. Now you never heard of it?

https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/obama-jobs-not-back-trump/

[Demsrule86]

86. No I didn't actually, but then I don't read conservative crap often...however

the first sentence says 'the jobs aren't coming back under Trump...how exactly is that a bad thing? They didn't come back under Trump. He lied...now this conversation is over...you are reaching here...and I tire of the games...Clearly, I never heard of some right wing talking point posted on conservative sites. And I do not appreciate your attacks. You are out of line here.

[blm]

89. You must not battle RWers on line then.

Those of us who do have battled that Obama attack lie for years and your casual use of it did NOT help your case.

Try to accept that you made a mistake and move past it.

[Demsrule86]

95. No I don't battle right wingers online...occasionally reply to twitter but that is

it. I do not believe Pres. Obama ever said anything of the sort...and you call it an attack so I think it is an attack...you misunderstood...we have heard that here for years...Janesville was particularly tough. My neighbor in Ohio hung himself in his garage...the last person he spoke to was my 14 year old daughter. The Mid West has been hard hit with job losses and did not recover much in terms of the recession. We have a shot in 20 because Trump is a God damned lying piece of crap. I warned people of course during the campaign...but I hope we can get him out in 20...He is under water in Ohio, or so I have heard from the Biden campaign...(going to work the campaign).

[TheFarseer]

94. You are right

That if we tell people “sorry, your jobs are not coming back and you need to get an education and move” we’re going to lose big. However, I’m not sure why you think Warren is going to tell voters that. I haven’t heard her say anything like that. That sounds more like the moderate centrist approach.

[Demsrule86]

99. I never suggested Warren would say that...she is smart...we were talking in

generalities.

[TheFarseer]

105. My mistake

If I read something into your post that wasn’t there.

[Demsrule86]

120. Maybe I wasn't clear...no worries.

[Demsrule86]

75. I made no mention of Pres. Obama so I have idea where you got that...

but what economic realities are you referring too? That is generally code for the jobs aren't coming back...time for retraining. My husband has been in four GM plants during his career...all of them closed. I live in Ohio. And don't accuse me of attacking Obama as I did no such thing clearly...fact is you have not been able to show me how Warren wins blue wall states...particularly as she has low support with the AA community.

[blm]

81. YOU referred to the"jobs aren't coming back speech"

The RW has been using that horsepoo againstObama for years now.

Your ego won’t let you admit that you wrongly conflated your ‘concerns’ . I grew up in Ohio and most of my large family is still there. Cut the condescending posts.

We battle RW lies all the time. We don’t need to help spread their mischaracterizations here.
https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/obama-jobs-not-back-trump/

[Demsrule86]

82. Um...that was said way before Obama...as far as I know Pres. Obama never said that...

that...I thought your 'realities' was code for jobs not coming back...and you were describing what you might say... I have heard it all before ...two decades worth. I live in the mid west and hubs works in the auto industry. Clearly a misunderstanding so what realities were you referring to?

[blm]

85. Denial much?

[YOHABLO]

33. Any way you look at it, we've got a large red swath of stupid going on in this country.

God help us if we don't pull this one off. People actually left the U.S.when George W Bush won the Presidency. Just a thought.

[Demsrule86]

58. This is why I believe Biden is the best perhaps the only one who can beat Trump

in the electoral college.

[lunasun]

35. Kick to show it will not be easy

[Demsrule86]

60. Those who believe anyone can beat Trump and it will be easy are wrong.

[jcgoldie]

41. Trump's approval #'s in WI, MI, & PA

Morning consult numbers by state as of July 2019 (His national approval has fallen a couple of points in the last month, so these numbers probably look a bit worse today for Trump.)

Net Approval:

Wisconsin: -14
Michigan: -11
Pennsylvania: -8

Here's a few more that stick out:

Iowa: -11
Ohio: -6
Arizona: -7

What this tells me is that perceived elect-ability should not be the only issue that we focus on... and yet its 90% of everything we are hearing from Biden supporters (including "swallow a little bit" his wife).

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

[Demsrule86]

61. 2016 approval rating...Health care is the issue to run on. It worked

in the mid terms and will work again. Below is a chart of Trump's 2016 numbers...not that much different to day.

Trump: Favorable/Unfavorable
Poll Date Sample
Favorable
Unfavorable
Spread
RCP Average 10/28 - 11/7 -- 37.5 58.5 -21.0
Economist/YouGov 11/4 - 11/7 3677 LV 39 60 -21
Bloomberg 11/4 - 11/6 799 LV 41 57 -16
FOX News 11/3 - 11/6 1295 LV 38 60 -22
Monmouth 11/3 - 11/6 748 LV 34 55 -21
Gravis 11/3 - 11/6 16639 RV 42 56 -14
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/3 - 11/5 1282 LV 33 59 -26
Reuters/Ipsos 11/2 - 11/6 2196 LV 43 57 -14
ABC/Wash Post 11/2 - 11/5 1773 LV 38 60 -22
McClatchy/Marist 11/1 - 11/3 940 LV 36 61 -25
Gallup 10/30 - 11/6 A 35 62 -27
CBS News/NY Times 10/28 - 11/1 1333 RV 33 56 -23
All Trump: Favorable/Unfavorable Polling Data

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/clintontrumpfavorability.html

[FBaggins]

42. I don't accept the premise of the question

FL and NC are winnable even in a year that we lose MI or PA.

Different candidates can put different states into play.

[Me.]

83. Nor Do I

just another Biden bid.

[Cha]

93. At this point I think it's

BIDEN!

Thanks, Dems

[Demsrule86]

98. I agree Cha!

[Garrett78]

101. The Rust Belt Myth lives on, sadly.

Google "Rust Belt myth."

[Demsrule86]

102. No, thanks just the same...

you could have merely posted it...I live in Ohio you know.

[Garrett78]

104. There have been so many articles about it that it's hard to believe people still fall for the myth.

But you can believe whatever you want. Ignorance is bliss.

[Princetonian]

115. Irony is dead.

Rhetoric 101. "I don't believe you're a racist, but..." means you're about to imply he's a racist.

"Harris plummets in new 2020 poll... out of the first and even second tier..."

Kamala Harris was off and running after the June debates. She hit 17% in our poll and 20% in Quinnipiac University's poll following her performance on the debate stage in Miami... in our latest polls, Quinnipiac and we have her at 7% and 5% respectively.

The second debate in Detroit didn't cause most of Harris' drop. She was already down to 12% in a late July poll by Quinnipiac... I wrote at the time "why Kamala Harris needs another strong debate." That didn't happen.

Harris is now considerably weaker across the board. She dropped by over 10 points with whites and nonwhites. She declined by 9 points or more with those under the age of 50 as well those aged 50 and older.

Her biggest drop might have been among liberals. She went from 24% in late June to only 4% now... When asked which candidates they'd like to hear more about, 30% said Harris in late June. That was more than any other candidate. Now, only 18% say they want to hear more about Harris... For now, the polling puts Harris not in the first or even second tier.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-08-20-19/h_7b57a7f94aafaddf52a5479b32fdefa1

[Garrett78]

121. That has absolutely nothing to do with the Rust Belt Myth. Try again.

[Princetonian]

124. "But you can believe whatever you want. Ignorance is bliss."

[Demsrule86]

126. The maps I posted show what happens if we we win the blue wall states and if we don't...

not a myth..simple truth. But a cold hard fact...without those states we currently have no path to the presidency.

[Garrett78]

129. The myths center around what happened in 2016 and why.

That many have taken away from 2016 the idea that we need a white male or a "moderate" or that we lost because of Obama-Trump voters doesn't make it so. That's not the lesson from 2016.

"We must win states x, y and z, therefore we need such-and-such candidate" is a simplistic narrative. People like simplistic narratives. But they're often false.

[Demsrule86]

136. Seriously? I want Biden because he can win specific states that others

are unlikely to...such drama ...myths and so on...it is a simple matter of who can win...primaries are supposed to choose people who can win...and nothing else really matter.

[emmaverybo]

143. "Statement politics" means everything to some and can distort reality to suit the passion for

a candidate with a particular ideology or identity. In the re-shaped reality, one’s candidate is so
powerful, persuasive, brilliant, and charismatic that he or she can pull off what mere mortals can’t.

The supporter, so enamored and enchanted, can not understand how others could not, in mass numbers, and of every region, feel the same attraction. They will once they meet the “special one.”

In fact, the favored candidate’s charm lies in defying what political reality says. The preferred one will change the American political landscape! Electoral map?

A dragon in disguise.

[Demsrule86]

150. Well that explains a great deal...I have been unable to understand why some think certain

candidates who have IMHO no chance are going to win...and of course that explains the multiple 'wait for the debates' comments and threads...their candidate is so wonderful why everyone will soon be on board. Of course it doesn't work that way...can't think of one time that it did. You field you candidate to win where you need them to win...you don't try to put a square peg in a round hole...I believe in a 50 state strategy and we won't win a senate majority if we don't except that our party is a big tent party and we need independents as well. This also explains...the posts where my candidate did XYZ isn't that remarkable?" See how great he/she is.

[Princetonian]

146. OP never said that. Resorting to a flimsy strawman is a sign of a losing argument.

The OP never once pushed "the idea that we need a white male or a "moderate". But someone recently tried to pull this petty trick on VP Joe Biden, the frontrunner...

Rhetoric 101. "I don't believe you're a racist, but..." means you're about to imply he's a racist.

[IronLionZion]

108. Florida is a big swing state that should not be ignored

As people move from north to south, the demographics of Florida has shifted in certain areas and should be more competitive for us.

Hillary had a higher percentage of the vote in Florida than PA, WI, or MI. Our party should work harder to increase turnout from our voters, and to fight voter suppression. The other side thinks our votes matter.

Hillary won Minnesota and New Hampshire with a lower % of the vote than PA, WI, or MI so I wouldn't take anything for granted.

Trump's margin in Michigan was only 11,000 votes. WI 23,000, PA 44,000.

Boosting turnout from urban, liberals, minorities of all types, women, young people, etc. in the blue areas of these states could cover those margins if we had an Obama-like figure to inspire high turnout. I would hope the Obamas campaign hard for whoever we nominate.

If people want to look backwards, why not look at how we won in 2008?

[Princetonian]

117. Amen... absolutely right on target. Florida will be not forgotten.

Star Member IronLionZion (25,963 posts)
108. Florida is a big swing state that should not be ignored

As people move from north to south, the demographics of Florida has shifted in certain areas and should be more competitive for us.

Hillary had a higher percentage of the vote in Florida than PA, WI, or MI. Our party should work harder to increase turnout from our voters, and to fight voter suppression. The other side thinks our votes matter.

Hillary won Minnesota and New Hampshire with a lower % of the vote than PA, WI, or MI so I wouldn't take anything for granted.

Trump's margin in Michigan was only 11,000 votes. WI 23,000, PA 44,000.

Boosting turnout from urban, liberals, minorities of all types, women, young people, etc. in the blue areas of these states could cover those margins if we had an Obama-like figure to inspire high turnout. I would hope the Obamas campaign hard for whoever we nominate.

If people want to look backwards, why not look at how we won in 2008?

[IronLionZion]

155. In 2008, Biden supporters were the most respectful and polite of all the candidates

I was one of them. It's amazing and disappointing how things have changed since then.

[Demsrule86]

137. We lost a sitting Senator in Florida...and Biden would help with this state too...

You think running left helps with moderate states? It doesn't.

[Joe941]

112. I worry about wisconsin. I fear it is become more red as time goes on.

[Demsrule86]

138. Me too...and it is a must win state...but we do have a senate seat there so...

we still have a shot.

[LincolnRossiter]

114. I don't see your second map happening at all.

Trump either wins narrowly or gets blown the fuck out.

[Demsrule86]

141. The second map is if we win the three states back. It shows what happens if we do win the states,

consider, that we have no path without those states...I think Biden could win in a landslide actually.

[Demsrule86]

158. I think Biden can take those three states to stop Trump...and maybe more. he has ties to

Mid West...as you know.

[Kurt V.]

128. it is unfortunate that these maps are taken seriously.

[Demsrule86]

140. Are you kidding...this is how we win...and how we lost in 16...

The maps tell the story...now some don't want to believe it...but discount the maps at your own peril.

[Andy823]

142. Actually we lost in 2016

Because of the "scorched earth" tactics the Russians used on social media sites. They got enough people to stay home and not vote, and the helped trump. I don't think those people will stay home this time, and they will vote. Nobody knows how they will vote, but they will listen to the candidates and they will pick the one they think will get the job done. The best qualified. Fortunately we have more than ONE that fits that description.

[Demsrule86]

152. It certainly hurt us

But we have to run the right candidate to win back the rust belt and if we don't we lose the general. We have a shot with Biden...very little with any other candidate.

[Celerity]

144. If we win WI, PA, and MI, Trump on has 3 remotely possible paths to win, and 2 are 269-269 ties

where he would win in the House, as the Rethugs control 26 (each state gets 1 vote, 26 needed to win the POTUS) state delegations and neither of the 2 close ones they control (FL and WI) are likely to change in 2020 due to RW gerrymandering.

The 2 states he would need to flip are NV and NH, and then to win 270 he needs to win both NE-2 and ME-2. If he loses either (but not both) NE-2 or ME-2, and still wins NV and NH, then it is 269-269 and the House will elect elect him (unless there was a rogue elector either way who did not just vote for someone different, but voted for the opposite candidate). IF we do, by some miracle, flip FL or WI or both, then the Senate would pick the VP, who would become POTUS, and IF the the Senate is also tied 50-50, then the Speaker of the House would become POTUS until the deadlocks are resolved. The 12th Amendment gives the House until the fourth day of March to select a president. The Senate has no time frame for VP.

the article below explains this

https://www.thoughtco.com/when-presidential-election-is-a-tie-3322063

With 50 votes in the House and 100 votes in the Senate, there could still be tie votes for both president and vice president. Under the 12th Amendment, as amended by the 20th Amendment, if the House has failed to select a new president by Jan. 20, the vice president-elect serves as acting president until the deadlock is resolved. In other words, the House keeps voting until the tie is broken.

This assumes that the Senate has selected a new vice president. If the Senate has failed to break a 50-50 tie for vice president, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 specifies that the Speaker of the House will serve as acting president until tie votes in both the House and Senate have been broken.

Let us all hope there is NOT a 269-269 ties in ANY (not just the 2 I listed, they are other more likely than those 2 ways to get to 269-269) scenario, as the country will tear itself apart. And lets hope that we win BOTH NV and NH (or one at a bare minimum) so the MI, PA, WI going Blue scenario means we 99% most likely win. The only 3 states I can see even at 5% chance of Rump flipping I have not mentioned are CO, MN, and VA, all highly highly unlikely, especially IF he loses all the others that he needs to even turn one of those 3 into a must win for him. BTW, a NH and NV loss by Rump, but wins NE-2 and ME-2, loses WI, MI, PA, BUT somehow against all odds, flips CO only, is another 269-269 tie nightmare. Either of he other 2 (MN, VA) give him a 270 or more straight win. IF we are talking about Rump winning one of those 3 (CO, MN, VA), that bodes really bad for us, really bad, as in blowout (at least EC wise) bad. I see almost no chance of that atm.

the maps

The only feasible outright win for Trump IF we win WI, PA, MI



and the two 269-269 routes

Wins ME-2, loses NE-2



Wins NE-2, loses ME-2

[Demsrule86]

151. Interesting post... I think it is unlikely that Nevada goes red...taking the rust belt is our best

chance and if we hold what we did in 16, Trump loses. I think if Biden is the nominee we might get Ohio or Florida...Trump is underwater here in Ohio...and Biden was a big presence here both in 08 and 12. I don't see Virginia going red either...win the blue wall back and Trump has a very difficult path...pretty much impossible.

[Celerity]

160. just now on MSNBC, these 4 states are what Trump is going to focus on a lot to flip

NV and NH included (plus the ultra narrow loss he had in MN, and then, NM, which I am surprised he is more focused on than CO, or at least add in CO too)

[Demsrule86]

162. I don't believe that...his best chance for those states was 2016.

[Celerity]

166. Don't believe he is going to focus on those, or don't believe he can flip them?

I think he will have a very, very hard time flipping any of them, but have no doubt he will try.

[Demsrule86]

167. I wanted to add thanks...and I have to say ...Trump must be desperate to pin his chances on

states he lost in 16...I love the smell of desperation in the morning, afternoon and night! Smells like victory.

[Celerity]

168. +1

[Demsrule86]

169. Back at you great find...you should consider making it a post on DU primaries...

so everyone sees it...boost the morale.

[Vogon_Glory]

156. Don't Write Off Texas And Arizona

This isn’t 2016 redux. We’ll have had over three years of Orange Julius and Republi-clown “governance,” and a lot of the gloss has worn off. A lot of non-voters have been shaken awake in both states and even Texas Latinos, decades-long award winners for most apathetic non-voting citizenry, are finally waking up to the fact that Donnie and company isn’t just trashing undocumented immigrants, or even immigrants, but he’s trashing them, too. That is not a smart move in a state where over thirty percent of the state is brown.

Knock over the Big Red Capstone and it’s electoral votes, and Donnie is (Phillips-headed), blued, and tattooed.

[Demsrule86]

157. We need to go after every state and maybe get the Senate that way...but the easiest way to

deny Trump a second turn is to take MI, WI and PA...Biden can do that...maybe he gets Texas and Arizona too wouldn't that be great...we need a 50 state strategy.

[Recursion]

159. Florida removes the need for any 2 of those states (nt)

[Demsrule86]

161. We lost the governorship in 18 and a sitting Senator...Florida is unlikely and can't be counted on..

sure if we won Ohio too...but the easiest way is to nominate Biden and we get the blue wall states and maybe Ohio and Florida...you would need a moderate candidate to win those state and Arizona too. We won with moderates in 18...makes no political sense to go all out left. And if we elect anyone supporting MFA, I fear we could lose the house.

[Princetonian]

170. Now we have proof that Joe is the only Democrat can beat Trump.