So basically Bernie fans only like Bernie and only Bernie fans like Bernie

[Celerity]

Link to tweet

Few candidates have loyal small-dollar donor bases

Compare how candidates stack up in small-dollar donors — and how many of their donors overlap

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/how-democratic-candidate-donors-overlap/

[True Dough]

1. The Warren-Harris-Buttigieg connection is fairly strong

Quite a bit of crossover in appeal there. Would be great if the two forced to drop out in the future endorse the one who is still standing.

[Celerity]

14. I think the vast majority of Buttigieg supporters go to Biden if/when Pete drops out

Same for Beto supporters. Biden has the 'pure' centre-left, moderate lane to himself unless Bullock (Senate please!!) or Bennet or Ryan or Klobuchar catch fire, which is doubtful.

Beto and Pete (who both straddle multiple camps) are more VP types atm, but I am absolutely not convinced Biden would roll with a double white male ticket. Biden also may rule out Pete as he does not want to hurt voter turnout with my fellow PoC, who unfortunately (especially the older ones) have big issues with LBGTQ candidates, and also his racial police issues in South Bend.

Unless Joe convinces (and I think he might, it would be the best play as it opens up GA, NC, FL into real battlegrounds) Stacey Abrams to be his running mate, that leaves Harris (not convinced he goes for her, a lot depends on the next 6 months), Booker (no, too much bad blood IMHO), Klobuchar (not convinced she brings enough to the ticket, but I could be wrong, she is solid but IMHO lacks the 'it' that we may need, especially as VP in 2020 sets up as the favourite for 2028, if we pull 2 straight terms), Castro (although his decriminalisation on immigration stance is very problematic in a general), Warren (zero chance, they are fundamentally at philosophical loggerheads and her age is a factor as she would also be in her 80's for her almost all her entire two possible terms as a POTUS if she was the VP going into the 2028 election), and then my dark horse, Deval Patrick (he was an Obama favourite for years before Biden got in.)

Whoever he picks, he is going to have a hard time keeping the far left, non-DU Berner types on the ranch. Their composition in 2020 is far less actual Democratic Party voters, far more radical than many were in 2016. It is going to be a big issue this go-round, potentially bigger than 2016. The main positive is that they are far smaller in number now than then.

[2020Junker]

23. They're exactly my top three

I'm not sure I could articulate why that is at this point in time. After all, if you look at pure policy, Warren and Buttigieg aren't exactly the closest to each other. I think it has more to do with the personal qualities I see in each of them. There may also be a bit of realpolitik involved. For example, I know we're not getting MfA any time soon, but I do think each candidate will push things in that direction in their way. I also have disagreements with each of them in certain areas.

But, we have time.

[True Dough]

24. I'm right there with you!

Pete's my #1.

Warren is my second choice. Harris is third.

[2020Junker]

25. Ha! Right now, that is exactly my order as well (n/t)

[still_one]

2. No surprise, and a reason, among others, why he cannot move beyond his base

[Amimnoch]

4. Ironic. I love all of our candidates BUT him.

Quite frankly, he's the only candidate that I'll have real issues with post nomination win. Would probably need to take a break from DU to respect the rules that I also agree with.

[still_one]

5. and while I will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is, I feel the same way

[Larrybanal]

11. unfortunately

bernies voters dont feel the same way and if bernie is not the nominee...his voters will take their vote and go home

[still_one]

13. I know, at least a subset of them willl

[George II]

21. Or vote for Jill Stein again if she runs.

[George II]

6. Don't forget the small print

This analysis is based on data from ActBlue, an online fundraising platform used by all major Democratic presidential candidates that was made available by the Federal Elections Commission last week. The data covers the first six months of 2019 and was limited to donations of $200 or less.

DonatIONS, not donORS.

Keep in mind that BS openly solicits multiple very small contributions from his contributors. That skews lots of these analyses.

For example, he has one contributor that has made 835 contributions in the first few months of the campaign. The way the Washington Post is using this data, that counts as 835 "loyal donors" even though they're from only one person. He's also got dozens of other people who have given more than 100 times each. The Washington Post is counting them as hundreds, if not thousands, of "loyal donors", which is a false premise.

[Gothmog]

19. You are correct to point out these limitations

[cannabis_flower]

7. Actually that headline is a little misleading.

It shows that 10% of Bernie supporters also gave to Warren and 5% gave to Gabbard. Maybe Sanders supporters just don't like Biden.

[thesquanderer]

20. Plus greater % of Bernie supporters gave to Biden than % of Biden supporters gave to Bernie!

And a greater percentage of Sanders supporters also gave to Warren, compared to Biden supporters doing the same.

So yeah, the headline misses the mark.

It's also arguably misleading because Sanders' smaller dots still can indicate higher absolute numbers, since he has more donors. That is, the dots represent percentage of totals, but the totals themselves vary a lot. So in absolute numbers, you could have, for example, more Sanders contributors supporting Buttigieg than Biden contributors doing the same, despite Biden's "Buttigieg dot" being bigger. That is, even if a greater percentage of Sanders are "die hards", Sanders has so many donors that, as a whole, his supporters could still be giving more to some other candidates that anyone else's supporters are.

[cannabis_flower]

40. It would be interesting..

To see this in absolute numbers instead of percentage of donors.

[cannabis_flower]

41. Here's the number of individual donors each candidate has

Candidates with the most individual donors.

Sanders. 746,000
Warren. 421,000
Buttigieg. 390,000
Harris. 277,000
Biden. 256,000
O'Rourke. 188,000

[thesquanderer]

42. So a Biden dot about triple the size of a Bernie dot still indicates no more donors...

...to someone's campaign from Biden supporters than from Bernie supporters. Based on all the times where Biden's dot is less than triple the size of Bernie's, there are numerous candidates who share more supporters with Bernie than with Biden.

Of course, if you used dots representing absolute numbers, then it wouldn't indicate percentage, and both bits of info are interesting.

So I have no issue with the chart per se... the issue is that the one line summary "basically Bernie fans only like Bernie and only Bernie fans like Bernie" is misleading. It's as if the summary was written by William Barr. And regardless of the actual numbers, it's false on its face that only Bernie fans like Bernie, because a decent percentage of Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris fans have also given to Sanders. The only takeaway there really is that Biden supporters don't give to Sanders in any noticeable percentage. Everyone else does.

There's a similar issue with the captioning. What is the message in pointing out that only 1% of Sanders donors also gave to Biden if you're not similarly pointing out that basically NO Biden supporters at all have given to Sanders? Whether intentionally or not, that comes off as selective editorialization.

[question everything]

8. And, sadly, as we've seen in 2016 if not Sanders

than staying at home or, as recently revealed, vote for the other candidate who declared how bad the country was..

[Autumn]

9. I donate to Sanders, Warren and Inslee and kicked a few bucks to Steyer

to get him on the debates. I won't donate to Biden or any other candidate I wouldn't support in a primary.

[ismnotwasm]

10. You are NOT supporting the Democratic nominee?

No matter who it is?

[Celerity]

15. where did she say that?

She said

I won't donate to Biden or any other candidate I wouldn't support in a primary.

[Autumn]

17. You notice I used the word primary?

Nice try

[Hassin Bin Sober]

26. .

?itemid=8587628

[Autumn]

28. Got to give credit where it's due. The Purity Patrol is forever vigilant

I would salute them but I don't have a proper flag for that.

[Celerity]

31. salut

with this

(double entendre, lol)

and it is from here in Sweden, so actually one would say skål!

[Autumn]

32. Good one

[ancianita]

12. I'm a Bernie fan and like Inslee.Democratic Socialists, or Dems, can like everything about either.

[zackymilly]

16. It appears donors for the two top women on the ticket are the most generous donors to others. n/t

[Gothmog]

18. From my twitter feed

Link to tweet

[Celerity]

22. zero surprise there, Gabbard was a huge pro-Bernie champion in 2016, she quit the DNC over it

She was the odds-on favourite to be his VP is he had won the primaries back then, probably still is.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

27. So are Pete fans, Harris fans and Warren fans!

Omigerd!


MORE IF YOU COMBINE!

Call the piece of chelief! I need to speak to someone in charge, NOW!

[CentralMass]

29. So basically your post is just negative and gratutious and earns you a full ignore,

[Celerity]

30. lol, I assume you will ignore 538 from now on too

fail to see what is 'negative' about stats

oh well

[TwilightZone]

33. The OP didn't write the headline.

Nate Silver did. The conclusions are also his.

[corbettkroehler]

34. I Like Several Others But Only Donate To Bernie

That's part of the primary process. Should another candidate turn out to be the nominee, at that time I would open my wallet for such nominee, not before.

[Blue_Tires]

35. So in other words

they're going to fuck us again if St. Bern isn't the nominee... I guarantee it.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

36. So let's make Bernie the nominee

[Blue_Tires]

37. So you're fine with securing the nomination by straight-up extortion?

So much for the "battle of ideas"....

[Hassin Bin Sober]

38. I'm not the one making the claim that Bernie...

... not being in the ticket will cost us the election.

You are.

You seem to be worried Bernie not being the nominee will hurt us. I suggest you get to campaigning.

[Blue_Tires]

39. I didn't make that claim

I'm saying that the Sanders crowd has betrayed us once, and even a cursory glance at twitter indicates that they have every intention of trying to do so again, which means they must really enjoy life under Trump...

Personally, I do not (nor have I ever) given a flying fuck about Bernard Sanders; it's his zoo that worries me.

[ehrnst]

43. Instead of letting Democratic voters choose the candidate?

Just install him?